FRESNO Plan · Texas City, TX 77568

$279,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,521 sqft · SingleFamily · 401 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The charming Fresno plan boasts a smartly designed layout with plenty of entertaining and private living space. At the heart of the home, an open-concept layout includes a great room. A casual dining area and a spacious kitchen boasting a center island and pantry. Off the kitchen, you'll enjoy access to three inviting secondary bedrooms, a full hall bath and a two-bay garage. Toward the back of the home, a secluded primary suite comes with a roomy walk-in closet and private bath.

Key facts

• Pantry
• Walk-in closet
• Great room

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• GREAT ROOM
• CENTER ISLAND
• PANTRY
• SECLUDED PRIMARY SUITE
• WALK-IN CLOSET

🏗️ New construction. The $279,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $359,328.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $280k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-395 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $264k (5.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $246k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#907 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Dickinson ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #366 of 826 in TX (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+4.0%/yr); 654 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 401 days — a 12% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $246,391 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 401 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.72%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $359,328
• List price: $279,990
• Delta: -22.08%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13926 Baikal Manor Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,619 (+6%)	1mo	$305,990	$189	62
13544 Diamond Reef Ln	0.60mi	4/2.0	1,635 (+8%)	1mo	$284,900	$174	59
13714 Ballast Green Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,738 (+14%)	1mo	$344,560	$198	59
13114 Cobalt Cove Ct	0.30mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,689 (+11%)	9mo	$290,000	$172	53
3109 Aqua Wave Dr	0.26mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,737 (+14%)	5mo	$285,000	$164	53
3121 Banyan Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,648 (+8%)	8mo	$323,900	$197	53
3417 Moraine Lake Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,605 (+6%)	8mo	$299,990	$187	53
3126 Blue Flora Dr	0.39mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,682 (+11%)	6mo	$285,000	$169	52
13101 Sapphire Lake Ln	0.32mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,689 (+11%)	10mo	$286,000	$169	52
3218 Cornflower Coast Ct	0.38mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,689 (+11%)	10mo	$285,000	$169	49
3506 Moraine Lake Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,619 (+6%)	10mo	$284,990	$176	48
3222 Cornflower Ct	0.39mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,737 (+14%)	6mo	$289,000	$166	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.95% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-80,823
• Equity at exit: $53,577

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-91,982
• Equity at exit: $31,068

Cash invested: $100,612 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77568

• Home prices YoY: -22.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 654
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,643 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,884
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$449 /mo · $5,390/yr
• Insurance: −$150
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$555
• Net cashflow: $-395

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,143

Max offer price $302,105

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-147	-5% $-271	+0% $-395	+5% $-520	+10% $-644
Rent	-10% $-604	-5% $-500	+0% $-395	+5% $-291	+10% $-187
Rate	-1.0pp $-214	-0.5pp $-304	base $-395	+0.5pp $-489	+1.0pp $-583

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $89,832
• Closing costs: $10,780
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13817 Starboard Reach Dr Santa Fe, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.5	2268	$3,630	$1.60	2d	1	0.55mi
12524 Jetty Cv Santa Fe, TX	3.0	2.0	1803	$2,506	$1.39	22d	1	0.93mi
6136 Lago Mar Blvd Dickinson, TX	3.0	2.0	1417	$1,900	$1.34	44d	1	0.95mi
6130 Lago Mar Blvd Texas City, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1066	$2,199	$2.06	4d	2	1.04mi
640 Totem Trail Dr La Marque, TX	4.0	2.5	2134	$2,309	$1.08	12d	1	1.10mi
3301 Gulf Fwy La Marque, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	991	$2,430	$2.45	2d	22	1.11mi
2437 Regatta Ln La Marque, TX	4.0	2.0	1844	$2,079	$1.13	6d	1	1.20mi
2301 Starboard Sail Alta Loma, TX	4.0	2.0	1856	$2,181	$1.18	11d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $279,990 Active 401 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $279,990 Active 400 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $279,990 Active 399 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $279,990 Active 398 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $279,990 Active 396 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $279,990 Active 392 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $279,990 Active 391 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $279,990 Active 390 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $279,990 Active 387 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $279,990 Active 386 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $279,990 Active 385 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $279,990 Active 384 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $279,990 Active 383 DOM
14. 2025-05-13
    listed $279,990 Active 484-char remark

    Show marketing remark (484 chars)

    The charming Fresno plan boasts a smartly designed layout with plenty of entertaining and private living space. At the heart of the home, an open-concept layout includes a great room. A casual dining area and a spacious kitchen boasting a center island and pantry. Off the kitchen, you'll enjoy access to three inviting secondary bedrooms, a full hall bath and a two-bay garage. Toward the back of the home, a secluded primary suite comes with a roomy walk-in closet and private bath.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,713
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,128
• − Property taxes: −$5,390
• − Insurance: −$1,797
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,537
• − Management: −$2,537
• − Depreciation: −$10,453
• Taxable loss: −$11,129
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,671
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,075/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

The Fresno plan is in good condition with a smart layout and no visible repairs needed. A fresh coat of paint and new gutters would significantly enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace gutters — Improves drainage and aesthetics

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace gutters — Improves drainage and aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dickinson ISD
• NCES district ID: 4817070
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $61,318
• Composite: 35.16/100
• National rank: #5005
• State rank: #366 of 826 in TX

Livability — Texas City

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #907
• US rank: #16268

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Texas City, TX
• County: Galveston County · 357,330 people
• City population: 49,936
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 23,083
• Household income: $74,694
• Rent vs Own: 28.0% rent · 72.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 700.0

Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: White 37% Hispanic / Latino 29% Black 26% Two or more races 17% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 21% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -69.39%
• Current HPI: 236.0239
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-05-13 Listed $279,990 Zillow