FRESNO Plan · Texas City, TX 77568

$279,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,521 sqft · SingleFamily · 499 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.6/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The charming Fresno plan boasts a smartly designed layout with plenty of entertaining and private living space. At the heart of the home, an open-concept layout includes a great room. A casual dining area and a spacious kitchen boasting a center island and pantry. Off the kitchen, you'll enjoy access to three inviting secondary bedrooms, a full hall bath and a two-bay garage. Toward the back of the home, a secluded primary suite comes with a roomy walk-in closet and private bath.

Key facts

• Pantry
• Walk-in closet
• Great room

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• GREAT ROOM
• CENTER ISLAND
• PANTRY
• SECLUDED PRIMARY SUITE
• WALK-IN CLOSET

🏗️ New construction. The $279,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $360,146.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $280k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-591 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $275k (1.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $240k (14.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $240k (14.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#907 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Dickinson ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #366 of 826 in TX (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hughes Road El (math 36% / reading 31%, grade F, #2,174 of 4,322 statewide, top 51%, 707 students, 67% FRL); Dunbar Middle (math 25% / reading 20%, grade F, #1,341 of 1,662 statewide, top 82%, 654 students, 78% FRL); Dickinson H S (math 30% / reading 46%, grade F, #880 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 3,619 students, 64% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+4.0%/yr); 889 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 41d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 63% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 499 days — a 12% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $240,240 (14.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 499 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.32%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.03%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 12.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $360,146
• List price: $279,990
• Delta: -22.26%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13802 Ballast Green Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,637 (+8%)	2mo	$340,460	$208	68
14013 Baikal Manor Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,637 (+8%)	1mo	$299,990	$183	60
13926 Baikal Manor Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,619 (+6%)	4mo	$305,990	$189	59
13544 Diamond Reef Ln	0.60mi	4/2.0	1,635 (+8%)	4mo	$284,900	$174	56
13714 Ballast Green Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,738 (+14%)	4mo	$344,560	$198	56
13114 Cobalt Cove Ct	0.30mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,689 (+11%)	12mo	$290,000	$172	51
3109 Aqua Wave Dr	0.26mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,737 (+14%)	8mo	$285,000	$164	50
3121 Banyan Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,648 (+8%)	11mo	$323,900	$197	50
3417 Moraine Lake Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,605 (+6%)	11mo	$299,990	$187	50
3126 Blue Flora Dr	0.39mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,682 (+11%)	10mo	$285,000	$169	49
14008 Starboard Reach Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,648 (+8%)	2mo	$331,900	$201	47
3222 Cornflower Ct	0.39mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,737 (+14%)	9mo	$289,000	$166	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.95% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-93,646
• Equity at exit: $53,699

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.19×
• Total profit: $-120,168
• Equity at exit: $31,139

Cash invested: $100,841 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 87 active · 36 under contract
• Months of supply: 14.1 mo (7%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $309,990 ($181/sqft)
• Median days on market: 59 d
• This list price: 14% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +30.6% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77568

• Home prices YoY: -22.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 889
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,402 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,889
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$450 /mo · $5,402/yr
• Insurance: −$150
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$505
• Net cashflow: $-591

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,150

Max offer price $274,629

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-342	-5% $-467	+0% $-591	+5% $-715	+10% $-840
Rent	-10% $-781	-5% $-686	+0% $-591	+5% $-496	+10% $-401
Rate	-1.0pp $-410	-0.5pp $-499	base $-591	+0.5pp $-684	+1.0pp $-779

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $90,036
• Closing costs: $10,804
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 27 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13817 Starboard Reach Dr Texas City, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.5	2268	$3,630	$1.60	0d	1	0.55mi
2122 Islawild Way Texas City, TX	3.0	2.0	1848	$2,100	$1.14	4d	1	0.71mi
14205 Freeboard Dr Texas City, TX	3.0	2.0	1389	$2,145	$1.54	0d	1	0.81mi
12524 Jetty Cv Santa Fe, TX	3.0	2.0	1803	$2,506	$1.39	117d	1	0.93mi
6136 Lago Mar Blvd Dickinson, TX	3.0	2.0	1417	$1,900	$1.34	139d	1	0.95mi
2128 Port Jackson Dr La Marque, TX	3.0	2.0	1754	$2,200	$1.25	89d	1	0.98mi
6130 Lago Mar Blvd Texas City, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1066	$2,199	$2.06	0d	2	1.04mi
3301 Gulf Fwy La Marque, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1074	$2,473	$2.30	0d	20	1.05mi
421 Palomino Stand Dr La Marque, TX	4.0	2.5	2134	$2,329	$1.09	59d	1	1.05mi
417 Palomino Stand Dr La Marque, TX	4.0	2.0	1844	$2,159	$1.17	5d	1	1.06mi
333 Summer Horse Dr La Marque, TX	4.0	2.0	1844	$2,209	$1.20	45d	1	1.07mi
628 Totem Trail Dr La Marque, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$1,949	$1.38	45d	1	1.08mi
640 Totem Trail Dr La Marque, TX	4.0	2.5	2134	$2,269	$1.06	54d	1	1.10mi
12318 Wavecrest Rd Texas City, TX	4.0	2.0	1844	$2,099	$1.14	33d	1	1.12mi
301 Summer Horse Dr La Marque, TX	4.0	2.5	2134	$2,229	$1.04	24d	1	1.12mi
520 Red Dusk Paint Dr La Marque, TX	4.0	2.5	2134	$2,249	$1.05	35d	1	1.14mi
12306 Wavecrest Rd La Marque, TX	4.0	2.0	1844	$2,099	$1.14	74d	1	1.15mi
801 Painted Bison Dr La Marque, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$1,969	$1.39	41d	1	1.17mi
725 Totem Trail Dr La Marque, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1774	$2,807	$1.58	0d	1	1.19mi
725 Totem Trail Dr La Marque, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$1,949	$1.38	33d	1	1.19mi
2437 Regatta Ln La Marque, TX	4.0	2.0	1844	$2,079	$1.13	101d	1	1.20mi
692 Totem Trail Dr La Marque, TX	4.0	2.5	2134	$2,329	$1.09	76d	1	1.21mi
336 Comanche Plains Rd La Marque, TX	3.0	2.0	1436	$1,789	$1.25	5d	1	1.22mi
916 American Monarch Dr La Marque, TX	4.0	2.5	2134	$2,309	$1.08	63d	1	1.26mi
944 American Monarch Dr La Marque, TX	3.0	2.5	1658	$2,099	$1.27	57d	1	1.29mi
2301 Starboard Sail Alta Loma, TX	4.0	2.0	1856	$2,181	$1.18	106d	1	1.36mi
3210 Gulf Fwy Texas City, TX	2.0–3.0	2.0	1141	$1,990	$1.74	0d	9	1.45mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $279,990 Active 499 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $279,990 Active 498 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $279,990 Active 497 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $279,990 Active 496 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $279,990 Active 495 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $279,990 Active 494 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $279,990 Active 493 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $279,990 Active 492 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $279,990 Active 491 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $279,990 Active 489 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $279,990 Active 488 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $279,990 Active 487 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $279,990 Active 486 DOM
14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $279,990 Active 480 DOM
15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $279,990 Active 479 DOM
16. 2026-09-02
    days on market $279,990 Active 477 DOM
17. 2026-08-31
    days on market $279,990 Active 475 DOM
18. 2026-08-29
    days on market $279,990 Active 473 DOM
19. 2026-08-28
    days on market $279,990 Active 472 DOM
20. 2026-08-27
    days on market $279,990 Active 471 DOM
21. 2026-08-25
    days on market $279,990 Active 469 DOM
22. 2026-08-24
    days on market $279,990 Active 468 DOM
23. 2026-08-23
    days on market $279,990 Active 467 DOM
24. 2026-08-22
    days on market $279,990 Active 466 DOM
25. 2026-08-21
    days on market $279,990 Active 465 DOM
26. 2026-08-20
    days on market $279,990 Active 464 DOM
27. 2026-08-19
    days on market $279,990 Active 463 DOM
28. 2026-08-18
    days on market $279,990 Active 462 DOM
29. 2026-08-17
    days on market $279,990 Active 461 DOM
30. 2026-08-16
    days on market $279,990 Active 460 DOM
31. 2026-08-15
    days on market $279,990 Active 459 DOM
32. 2026-08-14
    days on market $279,990 Active 458 DOM
33. 2026-08-13
    days on market $279,990 Active 457 DOM
34. 2026-08-12
    days on market $279,990 Active 456 DOM
35. 2026-08-11
    days on market $279,990 Active 455 DOM
36. 2026-08-10
    days on market $279,990 Active 454 DOM
37. 2026-08-09
    days on market $279,990 Active 453 DOM
38. 2026-08-08
    days on market $279,990 Active 452 DOM
39. 2026-08-06
    days on market $279,990 Active 450 DOM
40. 2026-08-05
    days on market $279,990 Active 449 DOM
41. 2026-08-04
    days on market $279,990 Active 448 DOM
42. 2026-08-03
    days on market $279,990 Active 447 DOM
43. 2026-07-31
    days on market $279,990 Active 444 DOM
44. 2026-07-30
    days on market $279,990 Active 443 DOM
45. 2026-07-30
    days on market $279,990 Active 442 DOM
46. 2026-07-28
    days on market $279,990 Active 441 DOM
47. 2026-07-26
    days on market $279,990 Active 439 DOM
48. 2026-07-24
    days on market $279,990 Active 437 DOM
49. 2026-07-23
    days on market $279,990 Active 436 DOM
50. 2026-07-22
    days on market $279,990 Active 435 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,829
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,174
• − Property taxes: −$5,402
• − Insurance: −$1,801
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,306
• − Management: −$2,306
• − Depreciation: −$10,477
• Taxable loss: −$13,637
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,273
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,819/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,605–$22,815 screening

The Fresno plan is in good condition with a smart layout and no visible repairs needed. A fresh coat of paint and new gutters would significantly enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace gutters — Improves drainage and aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 31/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Hughes Road El F TX #2,174/4,322 Nat'l #24,455/41,679 Middle Dunbar Middle F TX #1,341/1,662 Nat'l #11,105/14,009 High Dickinson H S F TX #880/1,632 Nat'l #8,877/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dickinson ISD
• NCES district ID: 4817070
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $61,318
• Composite: 35.16/100
• National rank: #5005
• State rank: #366 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 62/100

Livability — Texas City

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #907
• US rank: #16268

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Texas City, TX
• County: Galveston County · 390,640 people
• City population: 49,936
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 23,083
• Household income: $74,694
• Rent vs Own: 28.0% rent · 72.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 16% of renters

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Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: White 37% Hispanic / Latino 29% Black 26% Two or more races 17% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 21% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -69.39%
• Current HPI: 236.0239
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-05-13 Listed $279,990 Zillow