420 7th Ave SE · Elbow Lake, MN 56531

$149,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,092 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 173 Days on market

Built 1895 8,319 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.5/30.0
• Appreciation +7.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This could be your new home! 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, large family room with fireplace, spacious dining room are just a few things you'll find when you consider this property. Great back yard and a front deck to enjoy. Detached garage all located on a manicured lot. AND NO ASSESSMENTS!! (Agent related to seller)

Key facts

• 8,319 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1895

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-104 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $132k (12.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $120k (19.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $120k (19.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#188 in MN, #4,060 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• West Central Area (rural): math 47% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #80 of 301 in MN (top 27%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 22 active listings in the ZIP; 2 units permitted in Grant County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (5.1% local appreciation)).
• Grant County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 173 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $8k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $104k; 44% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1895 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $120,467 (19.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 173 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1895 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.46%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.97%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.12% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.69×
• Total profit: $29,007
• Equity at exit: $86,066

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.22×
• Total profit: $93,018
• Equity at exit: $149,472

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 56531

• Home prices YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 22
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,205 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$207 /mo · $2,486/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$253
• Net cashflow: $-104

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,336

Max offer price $131,523

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-04-17
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-25
   historical Contingent - Subject to Financing
3. 2026-03-06
   price $149,900
4. 2026-01-13
   status Active
5. 2025-09-05
   historical Contingent - Inspection
6. 2025-08-25
   price $152,000
7. 2025-07-16
   listed $158,000 Active
8. 2019-11-05
   soldstatus $104,000 311-char remark

   Show marketing remark (311 chars)

   This could be your new home! 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, large family room with fireplace, spacious dining room are just a few things you'll find when you consider this property. Great back yard and a front deck to enjoy. Detached garage all located on a manicured lot. AND NO ASSESSMENTS!! (Agent related to seller)

9. 2019-11-05
   soldstatus $104,000

   Show marketing remark (311 chars)

   This could be your new home! 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, large family room with fireplace, spacious dining room are just a few things you'll find when you consider this property. Great back yard and a front deck to enjoy. Detached garage all located on a manicured lot. AND NO ASSESSMENTS!! (Agent related to seller)

10. 2019-08-12
    listed $98,100 311-char remark

    Show marketing remark (311 chars)

    This could be your new home! 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, large family room with fireplace, spacious dining room are just a few things you'll find when you consider this property. Great back yard and a front deck to enjoy. Detached garage all located on a manicured lot. AND NO ASSESSMENTS!! (Agent related to seller)

11. 2015-09-03
    soldstatus $46,000
12. 2015-09-02
    soldstatus $46,000 289-char remark

    Show marketing remark (289 chars)

    This could be your new home! 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, large family room with fireplace, spacious dining room are just a few things you'll find when you consider this property. Great back yard and a front deck to enjoy. Located on a manicured lot near the edge of town. And no assessments!!

13. 2015-05-18
    listed $54,900 289-char remark

    Show marketing remark (289 chars)

    This could be your new home! 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, large family room with fireplace, spacious dining room are just a few things you'll find when you consider this property. Great back yard and a front deck to enjoy. Located on a manicured lot near the edge of town. And no assessments!!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,486 · $207/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,486 · $207/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,456
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$2,486
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,156
• − Management: −$1,156
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable loss: −$3,850
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$924
• After-tax cash flow: $-324/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: West Central Area
• NCES district ID: 2700104
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $48,888
• Composite: 45.94/100
• National rank: #2541
• State rank: #80 of 301 in MN

Livability — Elbow Lake

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #188
• US rank: #4060

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Elbow Lake, MN
• City population: 1,948
• Population (ZIP): 1,948

Population outlook (Grant County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,527 people
• By 2030: 5,287 · -4.3%
• By 2040: 4,829 · -12.6%
• By 2050: 4,415 · -20.1%
• By 2075: 3,504 · -36.6%
• By 2100: 2,555 · -53.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 36% Scottish 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Grant

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+30.6) · D 33.6% · R 64.2% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.2pp toward R · 2008: 5.7pp · 2024: -30.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+30.6 2020: R+26.5 2016: R+27.8 2012: R+2.9 2008: D+5.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.12%
• Current HPI: 253.9553
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+173.0% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-25 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $149,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-13 Relisted — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-05 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-25 Price Changed $152,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-16 Listed $158,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-11-05 Sold (Public Records) $104,000 Public Records
• 2019-11-05 Sold (MLS) $104,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-08-12 Listed $98,100 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-09-03 Sold (Public Records) $46,000 Public Records
• 2015-09-02 Sold (MLS) $46,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-05-18 Listed $54,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+7.3%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,486 · +40.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.