ASHDOWN Plan · Ward, AR 72176

$188,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,156 sqft · SingleFamily · 161 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.3/30.0
• Appreciation +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Moonlight Meadows in Ward, Arkansas, by D. R. Horton is an inviting new community offering a variety of modern single-family homes designed with convenience and comfort in mind. With spacious floor plans, stylish finishes, and a family-friendly environment, Moonlight Meadows is the perfect place to call home. Residents enjoy the peaceful rural setting while being within reach of essential services, shopping, and entertainment options. Whether you're starting a family, relocating for work, or simply seeking a serene neighborhood, Moonlight Meadows in Ward is an ideal spot to plant your roots. New homes are now selling in this community!

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 161 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 120 Moonlight Graham Blvd, Ward, AR 72176; Status: Active
• Financial info: List price $188,000
• HOA & community:

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Security:
• Utilities:
• Home design: Plan name: ASHDOWN; New construction plan
• Construction:
• Exterior features: 1,156 living area

Interior

• Kitchen:
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring:
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling:
• Interior features: Open living area
• Laundry & utility:

🏗️ New construction. The $188,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $174,556.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $188k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-63 ($-760/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $165k (12.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $145k (23.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $145k (23.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.9% in Ward — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#66 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Cabot School District (suburban): math 48% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #29 of 238 in AR (top 12%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ward Central Elementary (math 57% / reading 42%, grade D, #93 of 454 statewide, top 23%, 494 students, 62% FRL); Cabot Middle School North (math 52% / reading 41%, grade D+, #49 of 201 statewide, top 26%, 907 students, 42% FRL); Cabot High School (math 29% / reading 45%, grade F, #64 of 292 statewide, top 26%, 2,198 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools average 47% FRL vs 30% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 156 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 185 units permitted in Lonoke County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $9k appreciation (5.3% local appreciation)).
• Lonoke County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (5.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 161 days — a 12% lower offer ($165k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $144,681 (23.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 161 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.56%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $174,556
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
25 Windwood Cv Cv	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,147 (-1%)	5mo	$169,999	$148	86
3 Sunrise Ln	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,198 (+4%)	5mo	$189,900	$159	84
23 Moonridge Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,242 (+7%)	1mo	$180,000	$145	78
1605 Moon Rd	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,008 (-13%)	7mo	$145,000	$144	72
440 Moonlight Graham Blvd	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,280 (+11%)	5mo	$185,000	$145	64
24 Green Apple Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,139 (-2%)	9mo	$180,000	$158	61
47 Weatherwood Ln	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,269 (+10%)	8mo	$195,750	$154	51
710 Moon Rd	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,321 (+14%)	4mo	$224,500	$170	50
19 Castleton Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,248 (+8%)	8mo	$180,000	$144	50
720 Moon Rd	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,321 (+14%)	5mo	$224,500	$170	50
13 Castleton	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,285 (+11%)	8mo	$189,900	$148	47
35 Peachtree Ln	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,321 (+14%)	9mo	$199,500	$151	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.35% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.81×
• Total profit: $39,775
• Equity at exit: $102,700

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.50×
• Total profit: $122,209
• Equity at exit: $180,454

Cash invested: $48,876 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72176

• Home prices YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 156
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,447 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$915
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$218 /mo · $2,618/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$304
• Net cashflow: $-63

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,527

Max offer price $165,391

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $57	-5% $-3	+0% $-63	+5% $-124	+10% $-184
Rent	-10% $-178	-5% $-120	+0% $-63	+5% $-6	+10% $51
Rate	-1.0pp $25	-0.5pp $-19	base $-63	+0.5pp $-109	+1.0pp $-155

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,639
• Closing costs: $5,237
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12 Gold Meadows Loop Ward, AR	3.0	2.0	1484	$1,300	$0.88	25d	1	0.08mi
21 Windsor Park Dr Ward, AR	3.0	2.0	1442	$1,500	$1.04	25d	1	0.29mi
21 Weatherwood Ward, AR	3.0	2.0	1156	$1,300	$1.12	25d	1	0.58mi
29 Green Apple Ward, AR	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,450	$1.21	21d	1	0.59mi
23 Green Apple Ward, AR	3.0	2.0	1212	$1,450	$1.20	25d	1	0.60mi
65 Birchwood Dr Ward, AR	3.0	2.0	1302	$1,650	$1.27	23d	1	0.80mi
21 Kasidyann Ct Ward, AR	4.0	2.0	1415	$1,795	$1.27	25d	1	1.08mi
561 Brewer St Ward, AR	3.0	2.0	1050	$1,450	$1.38	46d	1	1.23mi
33 Langford St Ward, AR	3.0	2.0	1175	$1,300	$1.11	25d	1	1.32mi
14 Stephens St Ward, AR	3.0	2.0	1128	$1,395	$1.24	45d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $188,000 Active 161 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $188,000 Active 158 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $188,000 Active 157 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $188,000 Active 156 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $188,000 Active 155 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $188,000 Active 153 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $188,000 Active 150 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $188,000 Active 149 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $188,000 Active 148 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $188,000 Active 147 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $188,000 Active 144 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $188,000 Active 143 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $188,000 Active 142 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $188,000 Active 141 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $188,000 Active 140 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $188,000 Active 139 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,362
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,778
• − Property taxes: −$2,618
• − Insurance: −$873
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,389
• − Management: −$1,389
• − Depreciation: −$5,078
• Taxable loss: −$3,763
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$903
• After-tax cash flow: $143/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cabot School District
• NCES district ID: 0503750
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $55,993
• Composite: 39.66/100
• National rank: #3912
• State rank: #29 of 238 in AR

Livability — Ward

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #66
• US rank: #8464

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lonoke County · 46,130 people
• City population: 8,678
• Metro: Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR
• Population (ZIP): 8,678
• Household income: $68,840
• Rent vs Own: 28.2% rent · 71.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 90.0

Population outlook (Lonoke County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 78,072 people
• By 2030: 80,673 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 84,977 · +8.8%
• By 2050: 87,778 · +12.4%
• By 2075: 91,398 · +17.1%
• By 2100: 87,858 · +12.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Russian 2% Iranian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Tagalog/Filipino 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lonoke

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+53.7) · D 22.2% · R 75.8% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.2pp toward R · 2008: -47.5pp · 2024: -53.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+53.7 2020: R+52.8 2016: R+53.3 2012: R+50.9 2008: R+47.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.35%
• Current HPI: 208.9387
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B