5110 Oakbriar Ln · Rosenberg, TX 77469

$270,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,260 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 134 Days on market

Built 2007 6,433 sqft lot $119/sqft · at area comps Est $267k · at est. $25/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.1/15.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to a very nice house, very well kept, it offers you 3 bedrooms all up stairs, with walking closets and a big game room all bedrooms with ceiling fans. 2 full bathrooms up stairs, and a half bathroom down stairs. Down stairs you find a combination of living room and dining room, a kitchen with a breakfast area, big pantry and a lager laundry area. House was painted on 12/24 and the carpet change on 11/24. As well as the dishwasher, refrigerator, and stove were changed on 12/24.

Key facts

• 6,433 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2007

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $214 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $270k).
• Recommended offer: $238k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 3.4% in Rosenberg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#922 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.8%/yr); 1332 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($102k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 134 days — a 12% lower offer ($238k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $237,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 134 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.40%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $267,358
• List price: $270,000
• Delta: 0.99%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2003 Beach Bluff Rd	0.10mi	3/2.5	2,027 (-10%)	2mo	$275,000	$136	75
4911 Arbury Hill Ln	0.21mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,157 (-5%)	13mo	$329,000	$153	65
1818 Cardinal Sky Way	0.74mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,251 (-0%)	6mo	$306,000	$136	55
4330 Eagle Pass Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0	2,093 (-7%)	2mo	$361,990	$173	53
2704 Pine Bluff Dr	0.75mi	3/2.5	2,386 (+6%)	2mo	$396,990	$166	52
4810 Seabourne Landing Dr	0.30mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,009 (-11%)	8mo	$324,900	$162	52
4610 Monarch Bend Ln	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,928 (-15%)	3mo	$309,000	$160	52
4411 Eagle Pass Dr	0.71mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,393 (+6%)	1mo	$381,990	$160	48
4711 Bartagrass Dr	0.38mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,021 (-11%)	10mo	$335,000	$166	47
2624 Pine Bluff Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0	2,517 (+11%)	1mo	$404,990	$161	47
4315 Eagle Pass Dr	0.75mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,393 (+6%)	2mo	$379,990	$159	45
4323 Eagle Pass Dr	0.74mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,941 (-14%)	4mo	$354,990	$183	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-38,379
• Equity at exit: $40,258

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-47,740
• Equity at exit: $23,345

Cash invested: $75,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77469

• Home prices YoY: -25.1%
• Rents YoY: -1.8%
• Active inventory: 1332
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,870 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,416
• Tax from tax record: −$500 /mo · $6,004/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$603
• Net cashflow: $214

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,600

Max offer price $270,000

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,500
• Closing costs: $8,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4516 Bartagrass Dr Richmond, TX	4.0	2.0	2160	$3,850	$1.78	44d	1	0.53mi
5120 Twin Summit Dr Richmond, TX	4.0	2.0	1932	$2,099	$1.09	13d	1	1.35mi
930 Salado Slough Ln Rosenberg, TX	4.0	2.5	2427	$2,149	$0.89	3d	1	1.45mi
3715 Rock Ledge Dr Richmond, TX	3.0	2.5	2398	$2,400	$1.00	10d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $25 · $300/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $270,000 Active 134 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $270,000 Active 133 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $270,000 Active 132 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $270,000 Active 131 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $270,000 Active 129 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $270,000 Active 125 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $270,000 Active 124 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $270,000 Active 123 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $270,000 Active 120 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $270,000 Active 119 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $270,000 Active 118 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $270,000 Active 117 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $270,000 Active 116 DOM
14. 2026-02-05
    price $270,000 492-char remark

    Show marketing remark (492 chars)

    Welcome to a very nice house, very well kept, it offers you 3 bedrooms all up stairs, with walking closets and a big game room all bedrooms with ceiling fans. 2 full bathrooms up stairs, and a half bathroom down stairs. Down stairs you find a combination of living room and dining room, a kitchen with a breakfast area, big pantry and a lager laundry area. House was painted on 12/24 and the carpet change on 11/24. As well as the dishwasher, refrigerator, and stove were changed on 12/24.

15. 2026-02-04
    listed $265,000 Active 492-char remark

    Show marketing remark (492 chars)

    Welcome to a very nice house, very well kept, it offers you 3 bedrooms all up stairs, with walking closets and a big game room all bedrooms with ceiling fans. 2 full bathrooms up stairs, and a half bathroom down stairs. Down stairs you find a combination of living room and dining room, a kitchen with a breakfast area, big pantry and a lager laundry area. House was painted on 12/24 and the carpet change on 11/24. As well as the dishwasher, refrigerator, and stove were changed on 12/24.

16. 2026-01-25
    historical
17. 2025-06-13
    price $285,000
18. 2025-02-17
    price $289,500
19. 2025-01-06
    listed $295,999 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,004 · $500/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,004 · $500/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 65% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,446
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,124
• − Property taxes: −$6,004
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,756
• − Management: −$2,756
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$7,855
• Taxable loss: −$1,698
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$408
• After-tax cash flow: $2,975/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar CISD
• NCES district ID: 4826580
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,213
• Composite: 46.43/100
• National rank: #2452
• State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

Livability — Rosenberg

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #922
• US rank: #16414

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rosenberg, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,826
• Household income: $102,125
• Rent vs Own: 20.6% rent · 79.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1292.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.76)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 29% White 27% Black 25% Two or more races 15% Asian 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 24% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 7% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.66%
• Current HPI: 234.9892
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.81%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-8.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-05 Price Changed $270,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-04 Listed $265,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-25 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-06-13 Price Changed $285,000 HARMLS
• 2025-02-17 Price Changed $289,500 HARMLS
• 2025-01-06 Listed $295,999 HARMLS

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,004 · +9.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.