18717 Mill Villa Rd. #622 #622 · Jamestown, CA 95327

$109,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · Manufactured public records · 22 Days on market

Built 2003 Est $95k · 15% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.7/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Outstanding Location on Top of the Hill with a View of the Mountains on one side and the Park on the other side. Newer 3 bedroom 2 bath well maintained home with nice privacy screens. Manicure yard ... this home is so clean you can move right in. Rent is $850 includes garbage, use of recreational facilities, clubhouse, swimming pool/spa and billiard room. Park activities are bingo, bunco, bridge, pinochle, whist, water aerobics, luncheons/dinners to name a few. Close to Jamestown & Sonora for shopping and medical needs. So many nearby recreational activities to enjoy also.

Key facts

• Covered deck
• Breakfast nook
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• COVERED DECK
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• BREAKFAST NOOK
• FORMAL DINING AREA
• WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Park name: MILL VILLA ESTATES; Senior community; Community clubhouse; Club pool; Dog park; Game court; Game room; Guest parking; Recreation facilities; RV storage; Pets allowed upon approval

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (2 or more spaces)
• Utilities: Private water; Public sewer; Individual electric meter; Individual gas meter
• Home design: Manufactured home in park (Mobile Home); Double-wide model (VILLA)
• Construction: Cement siding; Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Exterior features: Covered patio with awning(s); Shed(s); Level lot; Partial fence; Community in-ground pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Free-standing range; Refrigerator; Laminate counters; Disposal
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms including a primary bedroom suite
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Primary bathroom with stall shower and solid surface; Other bathroom(s) with shower over tub and solid surface
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Dining area; Window coverings
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room inside with hookups only; 220-volt outlet; Laundry sink; Cabinets in laundry area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $109k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $686 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $109k).
• Recommended offer: $107k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.8% vs local median 4.5% in Jamestown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#980 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime B; Watch: housing C-, cost of living D, schools F.
• Sonora Union High (town): math 21% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #243 of 517 in CA (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 75 active listings in the ZIP; 60 units permitted in Tuolumne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $754 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tuolumne County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($107k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $107,365 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.56% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.97%
• DSCR: 2.20
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $94,640
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18717 Mill Villa Rd #250	0.00mi	3/2.0	944 (-9%)	3mo	$85,500	$91	82
18717 Mill Villa #101 #101	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,040 (0%)	18mo	$144,000	$138	80
18717 Mill Villa Rd #402 #402	0.00mi	3/2.0	960 (-8%)	12mo	$89,000	$93	77
18717 Mill Villa Rd #421 #421	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	960 (-8%)	9mo	$60,000	$63	75
18717 Mill Villa Rd #156	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,135 (+9%)	6mo	$72,000	$63	75
18725 Hwy 108 #71 #71	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,152 (+11%)	22mo	$59,000	$51	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.85×
• Total profit: $25,994
• Equity at exit: $16,252

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.58×
• Total profit: $78,755
• Equity at exit: $9,424

Cash invested: $30,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95327

• Active inventory: 75
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,699 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$572
• Tax from tax record: −$39 /mo · $470/yr
• Insurance: −$45
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$357
• Net cashflow: $686

Break-even live

Break-even rent $831

Max offer price $109,000

Occupancy floor 55%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $748	-5% $717	+0% $686	+5% $655	+10% $624
Rent	-10% $552	-5% $619	+0% $686	+5% $753	+10% $820
Rate	-1.0pp $741	-0.5pp $714	base $686	+0.5pp $658	+1.0pp $629

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,250
• Closing costs: $3,270
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $109,000 Active 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $109,000 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $109,000 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $109,000 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $109,000 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $109,000 Active 16 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $109,000 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $109,000 Active 13 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $109,000 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $109,000 Active 11 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $109,000 Active 8 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $109,000 Active 7 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $109,000 Active 6 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $109,000 Active 5 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $109,000 Active 4 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $109,000 Active 3 DOM
17. 2026-05-27
    listed $109,000 Active
18. 2020-08-03
    soldstatus $114,000 583-char remark

    Show marketing remark (583 chars)

    Outstanding Location on Top of the Hill with a View of the Mountains on one side and the Park on the other side. Newer 3 bedroom 2 bath well maintained home with nice privacy screens. Manicure yard ... this home is so clean you can move right in. Rent is $850 includes garbage, use of recreational facilities, clubhouse, swimming pool/spa and billiard room. Park activities are bingo, bunco, bridge, pinochle, whist, water aerobics, luncheons/dinners to name a few. Close to Jamestown & Sonora for shopping and medical needs. So many nearby recreational activities to enjoy also.

19. 2020-05-06
    listed $118,000 583-char remark

    Show marketing remark (583 chars)

    Outstanding Location on Top of the Hill with a View of the Mountains on one side and the Park on the other side. Newer 3 bedroom 2 bath well maintained home with nice privacy screens. Manicure yard ... this home is so clean you can move right in. Rent is $850 includes garbage, use of recreational facilities, clubhouse, swimming pool/spa and billiard room. Park activities are bingo, bunco, bridge, pinochle, whist, water aerobics, luncheons/dinners to name a few. Close to Jamestown & Sonora for shopping and medical needs. So many nearby recreational activities to enjoy also.

20. 2018-01-26
    soldstatus $87,250 583-char remark

    Show marketing remark (583 chars)

    Outstanding Location on Top of the Hill with a View of the Mountains on one side and the Park on the other side. Newer 3 bedroom 2 bath well maintained home with nice privacy screens. Manicure yard ... this home is so clean you can move right in. Rent is $750 includes garbage, use of recreational facilities, clubhouse, swimming pool/spa and billiard room. Park activities are bingo, bunco, bridge, pinochle, whist, water aerobics, luncheons/dinners to name a few. Close to Jamestown & Sonora for shopping and medical needs. So many nearby recreational activities to enjoy also.

21. 2017-11-27
    listed $88,500 583-char remark

    Show marketing remark (583 chars)

    Outstanding Location on Top of the Hill with a View of the Mountains on one side and the Park on the other side. Newer 3 bedroom 2 bath well maintained home with nice privacy screens. Manicure yard ... this home is so clean you can move right in. Rent is $750 includes garbage, use of recreational facilities, clubhouse, swimming pool/spa and billiard room. Park activities are bingo, bunco, bridge, pinochle, whist, water aerobics, luncheons/dinners to name a few. Close to Jamestown & Sonora for shopping and medical needs. So many nearby recreational activities to enjoy also.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $470 · $39/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $828 · $69/mo
• Expected delta: +$358/yr (+$30/mo · 76.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,388
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,106
• − Property taxes: −$470
• − Insurance: −$545
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,631
• − Management: −$1,631
• − Depreciation: −$3,171
• Taxable income: $6,834
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,640
• After-tax cash flow: $6,592/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sonora Union High
• NCES district ID: 0637260
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $40,252
• Composite: 33.41/100
• National rank: #5470
• State rank: #243 of 517 in CA

Livability — Jamestown

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #980
• US rank: #24642

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D Crime B Employment F Housing C- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jamestown, CA
• Population (ZIP): 8,799

Population outlook (Tuolumne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,349 people
• By 2030: 48,708 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 45,284 · -10.1%
• By 2050: 42,575 · -15.4%
• By 2075: 36,827 · -26.9%
• By 2100: 30,369 · -39.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 13% Black 7% Native American 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Serbian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tuolumne

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.9) · D 37.9% · R 59.7% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.2pp toward R · 2008: -12.7pp · 2024: -21.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.9 2020: R+18.8 2016: R+20.9 2012: R+15.9 2008: R+12.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -129.96%
• Current HPI: 100.2616
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+23.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Listed $109,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2020-08-03 Sold (MLS) $114,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2020-05-06 Listed $118,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2018-01-26 Sold (MLS) $87,250 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2017-11-27 Listed $88,500 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR

Property tax history

+0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $470 · -0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.