106 Spanish Oak Rd · Lockhart, TX 78616

$249,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,038 sqft · SingleFamily · 227 Days on market

Built 2025 1.08 ac lot $241/sqft · 89% below area ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.1/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Owner Financing Available with as little as $10,000 Down! Very cute and affordable 3-bedroom, 2-bath brand-new manufactured home sitting on a fully fenced 1-acre lot with gated entry in Dale, Texas. This move-in ready home comes complete with all appliances and offers easy qualifying terms. Enjoy peace of mind with a recently installed septic system, private water well with pump, and all utilities connected — everything is ready for you to move right in. The fully fenced acre provides privacy, space for animals, equipment, or simply room to breathe. If you’ve been dreaming of country living while owning your own piece of Texas heaven — this is your opportunity.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Electric range
• Private gated lot

Tags

• PRIVATE GATED LOT
• FULL FENCING
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• DURABLE VINYL FLOORING
• SPACIOUS LIVING AREA
• ELECTRIC RANGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-56 ($-671/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $240k (3.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $186k (25.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $186k (25.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.0% in Lockhart — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#535 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Lockhart ISD (town): math 27% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #657 of 826 in TX (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Navarro El (math 27% / reading 30%, grade F, #2,706 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 580 students, 72% FRL); Lockhart J H (math 22% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,301 of 1,662 statewide, top 79%, 1,433 students, 74% FRL); Lockhart H S (math 21% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,204 of 1,632 statewide, top 75%, 1,968 students, 69% FRL).
• Market conditions: 202 active listings in the ZIP; 529 units permitted in Caldwell County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Caldwell County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $70k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 227 days — a 12% lower offer ($220k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $185,947 (25.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 227 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.96%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $2,346,908
• List price: $249,900
• Delta: -89.35%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.89×
• Total profit: $132,447
• Equity at exit: $225,130

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.61×
• Total profit: $392,642
• Equity at exit: $485,501

Cash invested: $69,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78616

• Home prices YoY: 4.8%
• Active inventory: 202
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,859 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$110 /mo · $1,323/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$390
• Net cashflow: $-56

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,930

Max offer price $240,029

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $86	-5% $15	+0% $-56	+5% $-127	+10% $-197
Rent	-10% $-203	-5% $-129	+0% $-56	+5% $18	+10% $91
Rate	-1.0pp $70	-0.5pp $8	base $-56	+0.5pp $-121	+1.0pp $-187

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,475
• Closing costs: $7,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Pending 687-char remark

   Show marketing remark (687 chars)

   Owner Financing Available with as little as $10,000 Down! Very cute and affordable 3-bedroom, 2-bath brand-new manufactured home sitting on a fully fenced 1-acre lot with gated entry in Dale, Texas. This move-in ready home comes complete with all appliances and offers easy qualifying terms. Enjoy peace of mind with a recently installed septic system, private water well with pump, and all utilities connected — everything is ready for you to move right in. The fully fenced acre provides privacy, space for animals, equipment, or simply room to breathe. If you’ve been dreaming of country living while owning your own piece of Texas heaven — this is your opportunity.

2. 2026-03-20
   price $249,900 687-char remark

   Show marketing remark (687 chars)

   Owner Financing Available with as little as $10,000 Down! Very cute and affordable 3-bedroom, 2-bath brand-new manufactured home sitting on a fully fenced 1-acre lot with gated entry in Dale, Texas. This move-in ready home comes complete with all appliances and offers easy qualifying terms. Enjoy peace of mind with a recently installed septic system, private water well with pump, and all utilities connected — everything is ready for you to move right in. The fully fenced acre provides privacy, space for animals, equipment, or simply room to breathe. If you’ve been dreaming of country living while owning your own piece of Texas heaven — this is your opportunity.

3. 2026-02-19
   price $259,900 687-char remark

   Show marketing remark (687 chars)

   Owner Financing Available with as little as $10,000 Down! Very cute and affordable 3-bedroom, 2-bath brand-new manufactured home sitting on a fully fenced 1-acre lot with gated entry in Dale, Texas. This move-in ready home comes complete with all appliances and offers easy qualifying terms. Enjoy peace of mind with a recently installed septic system, private water well with pump, and all utilities connected — everything is ready for you to move right in. The fully fenced acre provides privacy, space for animals, equipment, or simply room to breathe. If you’ve been dreaming of country living while owning your own piece of Texas heaven — this is your opportunity.

4. 2026-01-08
   status Active 687-char remark

   Show marketing remark (687 chars)

   Owner Financing Available with as little as $10,000 Down! Very cute and affordable 3-bedroom, 2-bath brand-new manufactured home sitting on a fully fenced 1-acre lot with gated entry in Dale, Texas. This move-in ready home comes complete with all appliances and offers easy qualifying terms. Enjoy peace of mind with a recently installed septic system, private water well with pump, and all utilities connected — everything is ready for you to move right in. The fully fenced acre provides privacy, space for animals, equipment, or simply room to breathe. If you’ve been dreaming of country living while owning your own piece of Texas heaven — this is your opportunity.

5. 2025-11-07
   price $289,900 687-char remark

   Show marketing remark (687 chars)

   Owner Financing Available with as little as $10,000 Down! Very cute and affordable 3-bedroom, 2-bath brand-new manufactured home sitting on a fully fenced 1-acre lot with gated entry in Dale, Texas. This move-in ready home comes complete with all appliances and offers easy qualifying terms. Enjoy peace of mind with a recently installed septic system, private water well with pump, and all utilities connected — everything is ready for you to move right in. The fully fenced acre provides privacy, space for animals, equipment, or simply room to breathe. If you’ve been dreaming of country living while owning your own piece of Texas heaven — this is your opportunity.

6. 2025-09-04
   listed $299,900 Active 687-char remark

   Show marketing remark (687 chars)

   Owner Financing Available with as little as $10,000 Down! Very cute and affordable 3-bedroom, 2-bath brand-new manufactured home sitting on a fully fenced 1-acre lot with gated entry in Dale, Texas. This move-in ready home comes complete with all appliances and offers easy qualifying terms. Enjoy peace of mind with a recently installed septic system, private water well with pump, and all utilities connected — everything is ready for you to move right in. The fully fenced acre provides privacy, space for animals, equipment, or simply room to breathe. If you’ve been dreaming of country living while owning your own piece of Texas heaven — this is your opportunity.

7. 2025-04-14
   soldstatus
8. 2025-01-05
   listed Active
9. 2024-11-04
   price
10. 2024-09-03
    price
11. 2024-05-29
    price
12. 2024-04-03
    listed Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,323 · $110/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,573 · $381/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,250/yr (+$271/mo · 245.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,314
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,998
• − Property taxes: −$1,323
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,785
• − Management: −$1,785
• − Depreciation: −$7,270
• Taxable loss: −$5,097
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,223
• After-tax cash flow: $553/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lockhart ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827870
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,868
• Composite: 24.44/100
• National rank: #7674
• State rank: #657 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lockhart

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #535
• US rank: #10453

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 22,348
• Population (ZIP): 10,008

Population outlook (Caldwell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,557 people
• By 2030: 49,673 · +6.7%
• By 2040: 55,827 · +19.9%
• By 2050: 61,832 · +32.8%
• By 2075: 77,212 · +65.8%
• By 2100: 89,225 · +91.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 77% Two or more races 48% White 17% Native American 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 72%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 1% Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 24% · Canada
• Languages at home: 48% English-only · Spanish 51% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Caldwell

• 2024 margin: R (+14.4) · D 42.2% · R 56.6% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.4pp toward R · 2008: -6.0pp · 2024: -14.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.4 2020: R+9.1 2016: R+15.8 2012: R+11.1 2008: R+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 14.00%
• Current HPI: 308.45
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-16.7% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — Unlock MLS
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $249,900 Unlock MLS
• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $259,900 Unlock MLS
• 2026-01-08 Relisted — Unlock MLS
• 2025-11-07 Price Changed $289,900 Unlock MLS
• 2025-09-04 Listed $299,900 Unlock MLS
• 2025-04-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-01-05 Listed — Unlock MLS
• 2024-11-04 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2024-09-03 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2024-05-29 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2024-04-03 Listed — Unlock MLS