907 E Crest Dr · Jacksonville, FL 32221

$199,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,612 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 114 Days on market

Built 1962 Est $389k · 49% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

SELLER IS HIGHLY MOTIVATED AND WANTS THE PROPERTY SOLD WITHIN THE NEXT 30 DAYS! BRING ALL OFFERS! Spacious 5 bedroom, 3 bathroom single family home on a generous . 28 acre lot in a convenient Jacksonville location with a spacious upstairs loft space for additional living. Property is being sold as-is and offers significant potential for renovation, resale or rental opportunity. Bring your vision and investment strategy to this solid-sized floorplan with ample living space and traditional layout. Great opportunity for investors, rehabbers or experienced owner-occupants looking to add value. Close to schools, shopping and major roadways.

Key facts

• Close to schools
• Generous lot
• Upstairs loft space

Tags

• UPSTAIRS LOFT SPACE
• GENEROUS LOT
• POTENTIAL FOR RENOVATION
• CLOSE TO SCHOOLS
• CLOSE TO SHOPPING
• CLOSE TO MAJOR ROADWAYS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: $1,298.30 annual tax (2025)
• HOA & community: Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Garage; 1-car garage
• Security: 24-hour security; Fire alarm
• Utilities: Public sewer; Cable available; Electricity connected; Sewer available
• Home design: Single family residence; One level
• Construction: Brick construction; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Balcony; Chain link fencing; City street frontage; Asphalt road surface

Interior

• Kitchen: Convection oven; Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric cooktop; Microwave; Refrigerator; Gas water heater
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Has heating and cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Primary bathroom with tub and shower
• Laundry & utility: In-unit laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $346 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $199k).
• Recommended offer: $181k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 3.9% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 219 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($83k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 114 days — a 9% lower offer ($181k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $70k; list at $199k implies a 185% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $181,090 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 114 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.44%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $389,188
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7825 Ramona Blvd W	0.50mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,354 (-10%)	10mo	$348,000	$148	43
8048 Gordean Rd	0.64mi	4/2.0	2,228 (-15%)	8mo	$331,000	$149	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-12,201
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.18×
• Total profit: $9,805
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32221

• Home prices YoY: -19.2%
• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 219
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,403 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$426 /mo · $5,114/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$505
• Net cashflow: $346

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,965

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $458	-5% $402	+0% $346	+5% $289	+10% $233
Rent	-10% $156	-5% $251	+0% $346	+5% $440	+10% $535
Rate	-1.0pp $446	-0.5pp $396	base $346	+0.5pp $294	+1.0pp $242

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $199,000 Active 114 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,000 Active 111 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 110 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 109 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 108 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,000 Active 102 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,000 Active 101 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,000 Active 100 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $199,000 Active 96 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,000 Active 95 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,000 Active 94 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,000 Active 93 DOM
13. 2026-05-15
    price $199,000
14. 2026-05-01
    price $209,000
15. 2026-04-17
    price $219,000
16. 2026-04-07
    price $230,000
17. 2026-03-29
    price $240,000
18. 2026-02-27
    listed $250,000 Active
19. 1992-12-03
    soldstatus $69,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,114 · $426/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,114 · $426/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,834
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$5,114
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,307
• − Management: −$2,307
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable income: $1,175
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$282
• After-tax cash flow: $3,865/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Duval
• NCES district ID: 1200480
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,987
• Composite: 38.97/100
• National rank: #4076
• State rank: #48 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jacksonville

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #50
• US rank: #911

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jacksonville, FL
• County: Duval County · 1,015,274 people
• City population: 979,034
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 32,833
• Household income: $82,969
• Rent vs Own: 21.4% rent · 78.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 516.0

Population outlook (Duval County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,013,010 people
• By 2030: 1,059,228 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 1,141,439 · +12.7%
• By 2050: 1,205,258 · +19.0%
• By 2075: 1,324,282 · +30.7%
• By 2100: 1,319,620 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Black 33% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 6% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Vietnamese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Duval

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.4pp no change · 2008: -1.9pp · 2024: -1.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.5 2020: D+3.8 2016: R+1.5 2012: R+3.6 2008: R+1.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -62.74%
• Current HPI: 263.7591
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.12%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+184.7% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $199,000 realMLS
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $209,000 realMLS
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $219,000 realMLS
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $230,000 realMLS
• 2026-03-29 Price Changed $240,000 realMLS
• 2026-02-27 Listed $250,000 realMLS
• 1992-12-03 Sold (Public Records) $69,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+12.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,114 · +238.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.