Springfield Plan · Montgomery, TX 77356

$268,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,832 sqft · SingleFamily · 60 Days on market

Good condition 2-car garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• Rent growth +1.7/5.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Springfield is built for keeping growing families connected, with a contemporary oversized great room and a spacious gourmet kitchen with an informal nook. The owner's suite and three secondary bedrooms upstairs add flexibility for your family's needs. A first-floor covered patio option is great for outdoor entertaining.

Key facts

• Gourmet kitchen
• Covered patio
• Great room

Tags

• GREAT ROOM
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• COVERED PATIO

🏗️ New construction. The $268,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $314,818.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $269k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-418 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $254k (5.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $222k (17.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $222k (17.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 2.5% in Montgomery — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#372 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Montgomery ISD (rural): math 63% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #49 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Montgomery El (math 50% / reading 50%, grade D+, #849 of 4,322 statewide, top 20%, 595 students, 45% FRL); Montgomery J H (math 68% / reading 54%, grade B+, #145 of 1,662 statewide, top 9%, 1,045 students, 30% FRL); Montgomery H S (math 53% / reading 62%, grade C, #327 of 1,632 statewide, top 20%, 1,556 students, 25% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.3%/yr); 1304 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($261k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $222,490 (17.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.70%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.69%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $314,818
• List price: $268,990
• Delta: -14.56%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
657 Amber Falls Dr	0.04mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,846 (+1%)	2mo	$299,990	$163	88
602 Amber Falls Dr	0.16mi	4/2.0	1,777 (-3%)	1mo	$259,340	$146	85
610 Amber Falls Dr	0.14mi	4/2.0	1,777 (-3%)	2mo	$261,900	$147	85
833 High Mesa Ln	0.14mi	4/2.0	1,777 (-3%)	2mo	$269,920	$152	85
905 Silver Buckle Ln	0.23mi	4/2.0	1,777 (-3%)	1mo	$264,410	$149	82
206 Prairie Ridge Ln	0.10mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,762 (-4%)	2mo	$304,420	$173	81
114 Longhorn Run Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,902 (+4%)	0mo	$319,900	$168	79
653 Amber Falls Dr	0.05mi	4/3.0	2,029 (+11%)	2mo	$334,650	$165	76
415 Terra Vista Cir	0.20mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,900 (+4%)	3mo	$206,500	$109	75
210 Prairie Ridge Ln	0.10mi	4/3.0	2,029 (+11%)	3mo	$334,920	$165	73
825 High Mesa Ln	0.15mi	4/3.0	2,038 (+11%)	0mo	$269,570	$132	72
834 High Mesa Ln	0.16mi	4/3.0	2,036 (+11%)	1mo	$264,980	$130	72

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.05×
• Total profit: $-84,121
• Equity at exit: $46,940

10-year hold

• IRR: -48.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.50×
• Total profit: $-132,592
• Equity at exit: $27,220

Cash invested: $88,149 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 18 active · 13 under contract
• Months of supply: 3.5 mo (29%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $300,000 ($163/sqft)
• Median days on market: 59 d
• This list price: 22% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +5.4% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77356

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Rents YoY: -3.3%
• Active inventory: 1304
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,225 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,651
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$394 /mo · $4,722/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$467
• Net cashflow: $-418

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,754

Max offer price $254,338

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-200	-5% $-309	+0% $-418	+5% $-527	+10% $-636
Rent	-10% $-594	-5% $-506	+0% $-418	+5% $-330	+10% $-242
Rate	-1.0pp $-259	-0.5pp $-338	base $-418	+0.5pp $-500	+1.0pp $-583

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,705
• Closing costs: $9,445
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
622 Amber Falls Dr Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1244	$1,975	$1.59	93d	1	0.14mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $268,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: New construction plan named SpringfieldPlan inventory type
• Exterior features: Property located at 612 Ruby Bend Ln, Montgomery TX 77356

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Open living area of 1,832 finished square feet

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $268,990 Active 60 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $268,990 Active 58 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $268,990 Active 57 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $268,990 Active 56 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $268,990 Active 55 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $268,990 Active 52 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $268,990 Active 50 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $268,990 Active 49 DOM
9. 2026-07-24
   days on market $268,990 Active 45 DOM
10. 2026-07-23
    days on market $268,990 Active 44 DOM
11. 2026-07-22
    days on market $268,990 Active 43 DOM
12. 2026-07-21
    days on market $268,990 Active 42 DOM
13. 2026-07-20
    days on market $268,990 Active 41 DOM
14. 2026-07-18
    days on market $268,990 Active 39 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $268,990 Active 38 DOM
16. 2026-07-16
    days on market $268,990 Active 37 DOM
17. 2026-07-15
    days on market $268,990 Active 36 DOM
18. 2026-07-14
    days on market $268,990 Active 35 DOM
19. 2026-07-13
    days on market $268,990 Active 34 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $268,990 Active 33 DOM
21. 2026-07-11
    days on market $268,990 Active 32 DOM
22. 2026-07-10
    days on market $268,990 Active 31 DOM
23. 2026-07-09
    days on market $268,990 Active 30 DOM
24. 2026-07-07
    days on market $268,990 Active 28 DOM
25. 2026-07-06
    days on market $268,990 Active 27 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $268,990 Active 26 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $268,990 Active 25 DOM
28. 2026-07-03
    days on market $268,990 Active 24 DOM
29. 2026-07-02
    days on market $268,990 Active 23 DOM
30. 2026-07-01
    days on market $268,990 Active 22 DOM
31. 2026-06-30
    days on market $268,990 Active 21 DOM
32. 2026-06-29
    days on market $268,990 Active 20 DOM
33. 2026-06-28
    days on market $268,990 Active 19 DOM
34. 2026-06-27
    days on market $268,990 Active 18 DOM
35. 2026-06-26
    days on market $268,990 Active 17 DOM
36. 2026-06-24
    days on market $268,990 Active 15 DOM
37. 2026-06-22
    days on market $268,990 Active 13 DOM
38. 2026-06-21
    days on market $268,990 Active 12 DOM
39. 2026-06-18
    days on market $268,990 Active 9 DOM
40. 2026-06-17
    days on market $268,990 Active 8 DOM
41. 2026-06-16
    days on market $268,990 Active 7 DOM
42. 2026-06-15
    days on market $268,990 Active 6 DOM
43. 2026-06-13
    days on market $268,990 Active 4 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $268,990 Active 3 DOM
45. 2026-06-10
    days on marketlisting id $268,990 Active 1 DOM
46. 2026-06-09
    days on market $268,990 Active 83 DOM
47. 2026-06-08
    days on market $268,990 Active 82 DOM
48. 2026-06-07
    days on market $268,990 Active 81 DOM
49. 2026-06-04
    days on market $268,990 Active 78 DOM
50. 2026-06-03
    days on market $268,990 Active 77 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,699
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,635
• − Property taxes: −$4,722
• − Insurance: −$1,574
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,136
• − Management: −$2,136
• − Depreciation: −$9,158
• Taxable loss: −$10,662
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,559
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,457/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with a good condition score of 80. It is move-in ready and has a good resale and rental value. Consider painting the exterior and interior walls, updating the flooring in the bathrooms, and adding smart home features to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Updating the flooring in the bathrooms — Modern flooring can improve the look and feel of the bathrooms. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Newer appliances can increase the home's appeal and value. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can enhance convenience and appeal to potential buyers/renters. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract more potential buyers/renters. ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 56/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Montgomery El D+ TX #849/4,322 Nat'l #12,529/41,679 Middle Montgomery J H B+ TX #145/1,662 Nat'l #1,667/14,009 High Montgomery H S C TX #327/1,632 Nat'l #4,023/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery ISD
• NCES district ID: 4831260
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $75,596
• Composite: 53.55/100
• National rank: #1445
• State rank: #49 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 70/100

Livability — Montgomery

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #372
• US rank: #7894

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 713,896 people
• City population: 67,277
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 32,583
• Household income: $106,804
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 9% of renters

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Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 8% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

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Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -101.28%
• Current HPI: 233.0032
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $268,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: New construction plan named SpringfieldPlan inventory type
• Exterior features: Property located at 612 Ruby Bend Ln, Montgomery TX 77356

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Open living area of 1,832 finished square feet