403 Monarch Trl · Huntsville, TX 77320

$225,490

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,716 sqft · SingleFamily · 4 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition Est $244k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.3/30.0
• ARV discount +10.9/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• En-suite bathroom

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• THREE SECONDARY BEDROOMS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $225,490

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family home; Oxford plan
• Exterior features: 1,716 living area

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec new construction (Oxford plan)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $225k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-41 ($-492/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $220k (2.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $192k (14.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $192k (14.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 2.6% in Huntsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#825 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: amenities C-, schools D-, crime D-.
• Huntsville ISD (town): math 25% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #621 of 826 in TX (top 75%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 518 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 527 units permitted in Walker County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Walker County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $192,067 (14.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.78%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $243,672
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
606 Monarch Trl	0.15mi	4/2.0	1,716 (0%)	1mo	$263,990	$154	92
410 Monarch Trl	0.04mi	4/2.0	1,751 (+2%)	3mo	$239,000	$136	92
218 Lantana Ln	0.09mi	4/2.0	1,676 (-2%)	1mo	$261,990	$156	91
417 Monarch Trl	0.07mi	4/2.0	1,749 (+2%)	3mo	$249,080	$142	91
511 Monarch Trl	0.13mi	4/2.0	1,751 (+2%)	5mo	$237,330	$136	87
102 Lantana Ln	0.21mi	4/2.0	1,751 (+2%)	1mo	$239,999	$137	86
518 Monarch Trl	0.17mi	4/2.0	1,749 (+2%)	5mo	$234,999	$134	85
432 Monarch Trl	0.18mi	4/2.0	1,749 (+2%)	5mo	$235,840	$135	84
412 Monarch Trl	0.05mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,602 (-7%)	1mo	$237,630	$148	81
508 Monarch Trl	0.15mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,602 (-7%)	3mo	$209,000	$130	74
220 Lantana Ln	0.08mi	4/2.5	1,922 (+12%)	1mo	$285,990	$149	74
421 Monarch Trl	0.18mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,602 (-7%)	5mo	$230,000	$144	71

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.89% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-39,333
• Equity at exit: $33,621

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-38,363
• Equity at exit: $19,496

Cash invested: $63,137 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77320

• Home prices YoY: -33.0%
• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 518
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,921 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,182
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$282 /mo · $3,382/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$403
• Net cashflow: $-41

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,973

Max offer price $219,560

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,372
• Closing costs: $6,765
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3272 State Highway 30 Huntsville, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1070	$2,085	$1.95	43d	20	0.27mi
107 Crosstimbers St Huntsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1093	$1,249	$1.14	43d	1	0.70mi
149 Col Etheredge Blvd Huntsville, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	993	$1,710	$1.72	43d	9	0.81mi

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-05-30
   days on market $225,490 Active 4 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,048
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,631
• − Property taxes: −$3,382
• − Insurance: −$1,127
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,844
• − Management: −$1,844
• − Depreciation: −$6,560
• Taxable loss: −$4,340
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,042
• After-tax cash flow: $550/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 21 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-level home features a spacious open floorplan with modern finishes and a good condition. It is ready for move-in and would benefit from a fresh coat of paint on the exterior trim and cleaning of gutters to enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Clean gutters — Improves drainage and property value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Clean gutters — Improves drainage and property value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Huntsville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824030
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $36,597
• Composite: 25.71/100
• National rank: #7383
• State rank: #621 of 826 in TX

Livability — Huntsville

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #825
• US rank: #14909

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing B- Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Huntsville, TX
• County: Walker County · 75,669 people
• City population: 75,669
• Metro: Huntsville, TX
• Population (ZIP): 38,152
• Household income: $55,663
• Rent vs Own: 34.1% rent · 65.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1030.0

Population outlook (Walker County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 77,602 people
• By 2030: 82,007 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 90,436 · +16.5%
• By 2050: 100,240 · +29.2%
• By 2075: 123,667 · +59.4%
• By 2100: 135,073 · +74.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 26% Black 21% Two or more races 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 19%

Political lean MEDSL · Walker

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.0) · D 29.6% · R 69.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.4pp · 2024: -40.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.0 2020: R+31.7 2016: R+34.5 2012: R+28.4 2008: R+22.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -93.48%
• Current HPI: 190.199
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.89%
• Metro: Huntsville, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B