511 Howlin Rd · DeFuniak Springs, FL 32433

$165,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,280 sqft · Manufactured public records · 77 Days on market

Built 2007 0.36 ac lot Est $217k · 24% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +8.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home that perfectly blends modern design with peaceful surroundings located on large 15000 sf lot Step inside to find luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout--anywhere--creating a clean look that's both stylish and low maintenance. The spacious living room features a cozy electric fireplace.

Key facts

• Modern design
• Large lot
• Electric fireplace

Tags

• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• ELECTRIC FIREPLACE
• MODERN DESIGN
• LARGE LOT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Electric service
• Home design: Manufactured home; Single-story
• Construction: Built in 2007
• Exterior features: Lot is approximately 0.36 acres with dimensions about 72 ft by 175 ft; Subdivision: Oakwood Estates

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the first floor)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Central air conditioning

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $365 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $155k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 4.8% in DeFuniak Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#694 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D, amenities F.
• Walton (rural): math 62% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #10 of 73 in FL (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: West Defuniak Elementary School (math 67% / reading 57%, grade B, #608 of 2,144 statewide, top 29%, 669 students, 69% FRL); Walton High School (math 52% / reading 53%, grade C-, #154 of 667 statewide, top 24%, 856 students, 65% FRL) — zoned schools average 67% FRL vs 48% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 423 active listings in the ZIP; 2,883 units permitted in Walton County in 2024 (1,322 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Walton County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $31k; list at $165k implies a 432% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $155,100 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.47%
• DSCR: 1.42
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $216,600
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
714 E Picasso Cir	0.44mi	3/2.0	2,052 (-10%)	2mo	$195,500	$95	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.45×
• Total profit: $113,028
• Equity at exit: $148,645

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.0%
• Equity multiple: 7.81×
• Total profit: $314,446
• Equity at exit: $320,559

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32433

• Home prices YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 423
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,714 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$55 /mo · $661/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$360
• Net cashflow: $365

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,252

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $458	-5% $411	+0% $365	+5% $318	+10% $271
Rent	-10% $229	-5% $297	+0% $365	+5% $432	+10% $500
Rate	-1.0pp $448	-0.5pp $407	base $365	+0.5pp $322	+1.0pp $279

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $165,000 Active 77 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,000 Active 74 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,000 Active 73 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,000 Active 72 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,000 Active 71 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $165,000 Active 69 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $165,000 Active 68 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $165,000 Active 66 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $165,000 Active 65 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $165,000 Active 64 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $165,000 Active 63 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $165,000 Active 60 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $165,000 Active 59 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $165,000 Active 58 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $165,000 Active 57 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,000 Active 56 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $165,000 Active 55 DOM
18. 2026-04-04
    listed $165,000 Active
19. 2007-04-26
    soldstatus $31,000
20. 2005-02-16
    historical
21. 2004-08-16
    listed $25,000
22. 2004-08-16
    listed $25,000
23. 2004-05-21
    soldstatus $19,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $661 · $55/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,370 · $114/mo
• Expected delta: +$708/yr (+$59/mo · 107.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,565
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$661
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,645
• − Management: −$1,645
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable income: $1,746
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$419
• After-tax cash flow: $3,958/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Walton
• NCES district ID: 1201980
• Math proficiency: 62% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $46,794
• Composite: 52.03/100
• National rank: #1634
• State rank: #10 of 73 in FL

Livability — DeFuniak Springs

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #694
• US rank: #14475

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Walton County · 70,839 people
• City population: 19,746
• Metro: Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL
• Population (ZIP): 19,746
• Household income: $52,199
• Rent vs Own: 25.4% rent · 74.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 356.0

Population outlook (Walton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 80,014 people
• By 2030: 88,120 · +10.1%
• By 2040: 103,537 · +29.4%
• By 2050: 117,034 · +46.3%
• By 2075: 143,901 · +79.8%
• By 2100: 155,138 · +93.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Black 10% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Walton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+57.8) · D 20.7% · R 78.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.0pp toward R · 2008: -45.8pp · 2024: -57.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+57.8 2020: R+51.7 2016: R+56.1 2012: R+52.0 2008: R+45.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 14.77%
• Current HPI: 367.046
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+768.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-04 Listed $165,000 ECAR
• 2007-04-26 Sold (Public Records) $31,000 Public Records
• 2005-02-16 Listing Removed — NAMLS
• 2004-08-16 Listed $25,000 NAMLS
• 2004-08-16 Listed $25,000 ECAR
• 2004-05-21 Sold (Public Records) $19,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $661 · -3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.