820 Chihuahua St · Lockhart, TX 78644

$85,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 648 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1920 3,998 sqft lot $131/sqft · 49% below area Est $167k · 49% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.1/10.0
• 1% rule +8.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Fixer-Upper with Value-Add Potential Affordable investment property in Lockhart featuring 2 bedrooms, 1.5 bathrooms, and 648 square feet. The home requires repairs and renovation, providing an opportunity for investors, flippers, or buyers seeking a project. Situated minutes from downtown Lockhart with easy access to restaurants, shopping, and local attractions. Offered as-is and priced accordingly. NO HOA.

Key facts

• 3,998 sq ft lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1920

Tags

• AFFORDABLE INVESTMENT PROPERTY
• OPPORTUNITY FOR INVESTORS
• EASY ACCESS TO RESTAURANTS
• EASY ACCESS TO SHOPPING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; 2 total parking spaces
• Utilities: Electricity available; Public sewer; Public water
• Home design: Single-story home; Faces west; Resale property
• Construction: HardiPlank exterior; Aluminum roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Year built per public records
• Exterior features: Porch; Back yard; Front yard

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Main-level primary bedroom; See remarks
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $184 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $84k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 3.0% in Lockhart — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#535 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lockhart ISD (town): math 27% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #657 of 826 in TX (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 452 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 529 units permitted in Caldwell County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 18% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Caldwell County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price; built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $83,725 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.30%
• DSCR: 1.41
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $166,705
• List price: $85,000
• Delta: -55.01%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 18 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
730 Chihuahua St	0.14mi	2/1.0	712 (+10%)	2mo	$57,500	$81	76
711 Sabine St	0.23mi	2/2.0	588 (-9%)	13mo	$65,000	$111	59
613 Cottonwood St	0.16mi	2/1.0	720 (+11%)	22mo	$224,900	$312	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-1,952
• Equity at exit: $12,674

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.58×
• Total profit: $13,740
• Equity at exit: $7,349

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78644

• Home prices YoY: -29.4%
• Active inventory: 452
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,105 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$207 /mo · $2,485/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$232
• Net cashflow: $184

Break-even live

Break-even rent $871

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $232	-5% $208	+0% $184	+5% $160	+10% $136
Rent	-10% $97	-5% $141	+0% $184	+5% $228	+10% $272
Rate	-1.0pp $227	-0.5pp $206	base $184	+0.5pp $162	+1.0pp $140

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1000 Chihuahua St Unit B Lockhart, TX	1.0	1.0	500	$775	$1.55	13d	1	0.13mi
609 Cottonwood St Unit B Lockhart, TX	1.0	1.0	380	$950	$2.50	44d	1	0.15mi
1204 Blackjack St Unit B Lockhart, TX	2.0	1.0	750	$1,150	$1.53	24d	1	0.40mi
137 Elm St Lockhart, TX	2.0	1.0	650	$1,025	$1.58	44d	1	1.09mi
137 Elm St Unit 2 Lockhart, TX	2.0	1.0	650	$1,125	$1.73	5d	1	1.09mi
137 Elm St Unit 12 Lockhart, TX	2.0	1.0	650	$1,125	$1.73	44d	1	1.09mi
137 Elm St Unit 202 Lockhart, TX	2.0	1.0	650	$1,095	$1.68	44d	1	1.09mi
137 Elm St Unit 19 Lockhart, TX	2.0	1.0	650	$1,125	$1.73	24d	1	1.10mi
139 Elm St Lockhart, TX	1.0	1.0	738	$750	$1.02	44d	2	1.12mi
518 Laredo St Lockhart, TX	2.0	1.0	720	$1,050	$1.46	44d	1	1.19mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $85,000 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $85,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $85,000 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $85,000 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $85,000 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $85,000 Active 6 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $85,000 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $85,000 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   remarks 410-char remark
10. 2026-06-04
    pricedays on marketlisting id $85,000 Active 1 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $75,000 Active 86 DOM
12. 2026-03-06
    listed $75,000 Active 197-char remark
13. 2025-10-09
    price
14. 2025-09-03
    listed Active
15. 2025-07-01
    price
16. 2025-06-06
    price
17. 2025-05-24
    price
18. 2025-02-05
    price
19. 2025-01-14
    listed Active
20. 2008-05-02
    soldstatus
21. 2001-12-19
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,485 · $207/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,485 · $207/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,255
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$2,485
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,060
• − Management: −$1,060
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $990
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$238
• After-tax cash flow: $1,975/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lockhart ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827870
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,868
• Composite: 24.44/100
• National rank: #7674
• State rank: #657 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lockhart

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #535
• US rank: #10453

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lockhart, TX
• County: Caldwell County · 25,195 people
• City population: 22,348
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 22,348
• Household income: $74,709
• Rent vs Own: 25.1% rent · 74.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 324.0

Population outlook (Caldwell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,557 people
• By 2030: 49,673 · +6.7%
• By 2040: 55,827 · +19.9%
• By 2050: 61,832 · +32.8%
• By 2075: 77,212 · +65.8%
• By 2100: 89,225 · +91.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 52% White 39% Two or more races 23% Black 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 45% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 32%

Political lean MEDSL · Caldwell

• 2024 margin: R (+14.4) · D 42.2% · R 56.6% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.4pp toward R · 2008: -6.0pp · 2024: -14.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.4 2020: R+9.1 2016: R+15.8 2012: R+11.1 2008: R+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -99.62%
• Current HPI: 239.7906
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $85,000 Unlock MLS
• 2026-03-06 Listed — Unlock MLS
• 2025-10-09 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2025-09-03 Listed — Unlock MLS
• 2025-07-01 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2025-06-06 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2025-05-24 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2025-02-05 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2025-01-14 Listed — Unlock MLS
• 2008-05-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2001-12-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+12.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,485 · -2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.