203 Estrada · Warm Mineral Springs, FL 34287

$127,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,151 sqft · Manufactured public records · 333 Days on market

Built 1978 4,851 sqft lot $191/mo HOA · 11% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.5/30.0
• DSCR +9.1/10.0
• 1% rule +8.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

TURNKEY SNOWBIRD PARADISE 55+ Resort-Style Living in One of Sarasota County’s Most Desirable & Active Communities Move-in ready and fully furnished — just bring your toothbrush and flip-flops! This charming 2 bed | 2 bath | 1,056 sq ft home features a bright, spacious open floor plan perfect for relaxed Florida living. Recent major updates include: • 2015 A/C • 2022 Metal Roof • 2019 Hot Water Heater • Brand-new 2024 carport roof (plenty of room for your car + golf cart) Low monthly fee of only $191 covers water, sewer, lawn maintenance, trash, and access to all the incredible amenities below. Live every day like you’re on vacation: • Two heated pools + two hot tubs • 6 tennis courts + 4 pickleball courts + shuffleboard + bocce • Expansive clubhouse with dances, live shows, holiday parties, cards, billiards & darts • Fitness center, sauna, aerobics classes & weekly coffee socials • Two private boat ramps on 8 scenic lakes — bring your pontoon or kayak! Just 10 minutes to Manasota Key Beach, 15 minutes to vibrant downtown Venice, and surrounded by world-class golf courses. A recent 4-point inspection has already been completed and passed with flying colors — clean, turnkey, and ready for immediate cash or conventional financing. This is the rare combination of low-maintenance luxury, unbeatable location, and true resort-style living at an incredible value. Your Florida dream home is waiting — schedule your private tour today!

Key facts

• 2022 metal roof
• Utility room
• Two clubhouses

Tags

• 2022 METAL ROOF
• 2024 CARPORT ROOF
• 2019 HOT WATER HEATER
• UTILITY ROOM
• TWO CLUBHOUSES
• ACTIVITY CENTER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $128k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $272 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $128k).
• Recommended offer: $112k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#604 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Sarasota (urban): math 63% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #7 of 73 in FL (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 852 active listings in the ZIP; 7,466 units permitted in Sarasota County in 2024 (2,138 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $882 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sarasota County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 333 days — a 12% lower offer ($112k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $32k; list at $128k implies a 301% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $112,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 333 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.38% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.38%
• DSCR: 1.51
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.26% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-7,878
• Equity at exit: $19,011

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-2,159
• Equity at exit: $11,024

Cash invested: $35,700 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34287

• Home prices YoY: -20.1%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 852
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,755 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$669
• Tax from tax record: −$135 /mo · $1,622/yr
• Insurance: −$53
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$191
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$369
• Net cashflow: $272

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,411

Max offer price $127,500

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $344	-5% $308	+0% $272	+5% $236	+10% $200
Rent	-10% $133	-5% $203	+0% $272	+5% $341	+10% $411
Rate	-1.0pp $336	-0.5pp $304	base $272	+0.5pp $239	+1.0pp $205

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,875
• Closing costs: $3,825
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $191 · $2,292/yr
• Likely covers: watersewertrashpoolgym

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $127,500 Active 333 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $127,500 Active 332 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $127,500 Active 330 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $127,500 Active 328 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $127,500 Active 327 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $127,500 Active 325 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $127,500 Active 324 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $127,500 Active 322 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $127,500 Active 319 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $127,500 Active 318 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $127,500 Active 317 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $127,500 Active 316 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $127,500 Active 315 DOM
14. 2026-01-19
    price $127,500 1570-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1570 chars)

    TURNKEY SNOWBIRD PARADISE 55+ Resort-Style Living in One of Sarasota County’s Most Desirable & Active Communities Move-in ready and fully furnished — just bring your toothbrush and flip-flops! This charming 2 bed | 2 bath | 1,056 sq ft home features a bright, spacious open floor plan perfect for relaxed Florida living. Recent major updates include: • 2015 A/C • 2022 Metal Roof • 2019 Hot Water Heater • Brand-new 2024 carport roof (plenty of room for your car + golf cart) Low monthly fee of only $191 covers water, sewer, lawn maintenance, trash, and access to all the incredible amenities below. Live every day like you’re on vacation: • Two heated pools + two hot tubs • 6 tennis courts + 4 pickleball courts + shuffleboard + bocce • Expansive clubhouse with dances, live shows, holiday parties, cards, billiards & darts • Fitness center, sauna, aerobics classes & weekly coffee socials • Two private boat ramps on 8 scenic lakes — bring your pontoon or kayak! Just 10 minutes to Manasota Key Beach, 15 minutes to vibrant downtown Venice, and surrounded by world-class golf courses. A recent 4-point inspection has already been completed and passed with flying colors — clean, turnkey, and ready for immediate cash or conventional financing. This is the rare combination of low-maintenance luxury, unbeatable location, and true resort-style living at an incredible value. Your Florida dream home is waiting — schedule your private tour today!

15. 2025-07-20
    listed $137,000 Active 1570-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1570 chars)

    TURNKEY SNOWBIRD PARADISE 55+ Resort-Style Living in One of Sarasota County’s Most Desirable & Active Communities Move-in ready and fully furnished — just bring your toothbrush and flip-flops! This charming 2 bed | 2 bath | 1,056 sq ft home features a bright, spacious open floor plan perfect for relaxed Florida living. Recent major updates include: • 2015 A/C • 2022 Metal Roof • 2019 Hot Water Heater • Brand-new 2024 carport roof (plenty of room for your car + golf cart) Low monthly fee of only $191 covers water, sewer, lawn maintenance, trash, and access to all the incredible amenities below. Live every day like you’re on vacation: • Two heated pools + two hot tubs • 6 tennis courts + 4 pickleball courts + shuffleboard + bocce • Expansive clubhouse with dances, live shows, holiday parties, cards, billiards & darts • Fitness center, sauna, aerobics classes & weekly coffee socials • Two private boat ramps on 8 scenic lakes — bring your pontoon or kayak! Just 10 minutes to Manasota Key Beach, 15 minutes to vibrant downtown Venice, and surrounded by world-class golf courses. A recent 4-point inspection has already been completed and passed with flying colors — clean, turnkey, and ready for immediate cash or conventional financing. This is the rare combination of low-maintenance luxury, unbeatable location, and true resort-style living at an incredible value. Your Florida dream home is waiting — schedule your private tour today!

16. 1996-10-29
    soldstatus $31,800

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,622 · $135/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,622 · $135/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (shaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,058
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,142
• − Property taxes: −$1,622
• − Insurance: −$1,435
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,685
• − Management: −$1,685
• − HOA: −$2,292
• − Depreciation: −$3,709
• Taxable income: $1,489
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$357
• After-tax cash flow: $2,906/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sarasota
• NCES district ID: 1201680
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $51,167
• Composite: 53.68/100
• National rank: #1428
• State rank: #7 of 73 in FL

Livability — Warm Mineral Springs

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #604
• US rank: #11606

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Warm Mineral Springs, FL
• County: Sarasota County · 448,376 people
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 25,929
• Household income: $63,464
• Rent vs Own: 19.1% rent · 80.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 522.0

Population outlook (Sarasota County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 452,380 people
• By 2030: 474,175 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 511,577 · +13.1%
• By 2050: 541,467 · +19.7%
• By 2075: 604,947 · +33.7%
• By 2100: 621,965 · +37.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 7% Asian 4% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 3% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Scotch-Irish 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Philippines
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 8% Russian/Polish/Slavic 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Sarasota

• 2024 margin: R (+18.2) · D 40.5% · R 58.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.1pp toward R · 2008: -0.1pp · 2024: -18.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.2 2020: R+10.4 2016: R+11.6 2012: R+7.4 2008: R+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -70.89%
• Current HPI: 280.8484
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.26%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+300.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-19 Price Changed $127,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-20 Listed $137,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1996-10-29 Sold (Public Records) $31,800 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,622 · -0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.