40403 Cross Creek Ave · Prairieville, LA 70737

$250,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,429 sqft · SingleFamily · 39 Days on market

Built 2005 6,534 sqft lot $175/sqft · at area comps Est $252k · at est. $12/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.9/15.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Who doesn't love a beautiful new kitchen? With brand new gorgeous Leah Gold quartz countertops, a perfectly paired new backsplash, and a new large sink and faucet, this is a kitchen you will certainly want to call your own. The owner's primary suite has his and her separate vanities, and separate walk in closets. There are new blinds in all the windows, and with the updated paint this home is light and bright and so inviting. The living room is spacious and open to the dining and kitchen area, the home sits on a pristine corner lot, with a newer roof and HVAC unit. It is in Flood zone X so there are zero reasons to pass this one and every reason to check it out before it is gone!

Key facts

• New kitchen
• New large sink
• New backsplash

Tags

• NEW KITCHEN
• LEAH GOLD QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• NEW BACKSPLASH
• NEW LARGE SINK
• HIS AND HER SEPARATE VANITIES
• SEPARATE WALK IN CLOSETS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-97 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $233k (6.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $201k (19.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $201k (19.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.3% in Prairieville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#70 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Ascension Parish (suburban): math 48% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #7 of 98 in LA (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 571 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 579 units permitted in Ascension Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ascension County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $178k; 40% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $201,393 (19.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.48%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $252,425
• List price: $250,000
• Delta: -0.96%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
40414 Fox Run Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,445 (+1%)	2mo	$262,000	$181	93
40435 Cross Ridge Ave	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,420 (-1%)	3mo	$253,000	$178	93
40445 Fox Run Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,421 (-1%)	2mo	$255,000	$179	92
40462 Cross Creek Ave	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,404 (-2%)	3mo	$249,900	$178	90
40330 Coldwater Landing Ave	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,404 (-2%)	2mo	$175,000	$125	89
40363 Creekway Cove Ct	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,408 (-2%)	4mo	$255,000	$181	88
40312 Crestridge Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,408 (-2%)	2mo	$250,000	$178	87
40428 Fox Run Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,395 (-2%)	7mo	$232,500	$167	86
40489 Cross Creek Ave	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,408 (-2%)	7mo	$250,000	$178	84
40445 Sagefield Ct	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,321 (-8%)	5mo	$190,000	$144	76
14452 Tanya Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,565 (+10%)	3mo	$265,000	$169	65
40167 Trace Ave	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,551 (+8%)	7mo	$272,000	$175	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.26% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-46,177
• Equity at exit: $37,276

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-45,989
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 70737

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 571
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,014 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$136 /mo · $1,631/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$12
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$423
• Net cashflow: $-97

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,137

Max offer price $232,803

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $44	-5% $-27	+0% $-97	+5% $-168	+10% $-239
Rent	-10% $-256	-5% $-177	+0% $-97	+5% $-18	+10% $62
Rate	-1.0pp $29	-0.5pp $-34	base $-97	+0.5pp $-162	+1.0pp $-228

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
40300 Creek Bend Dr Gonzales, LA	3.0	2.0	1381	$2,000	$1.45	15d	1	0.20mi
14039 Young Rd Gonzales, LA	2.0	1.5	1385	$1,600	$1.16	45d	1	1.24mi
41437 Cozy Way Gonzales, LA	3.0	2.0	1825	$2,300	$1.26	24d	1	1.27mi
14086 Airline Hwy Gonzales, LA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1171	$1,779	$1.52	15d	1	1.32mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $12 · $144/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-05-09
   status Pending 688-char remark

   Show marketing remark (688 chars)

   Who doesn't love a beautiful new kitchen? With brand new gorgeous Leah Gold quartz countertops, a perfectly paired new backsplash, and a new large sink and faucet, this is a kitchen you will certainly want to call your own. The owner's primary suite has his and her separate vanities, and separate walk in closets. There are new blinds in all the windows, and with the updated paint this home is light and bright and so inviting. The living room is spacious and open to the dining and kitchen area, the home sits on a pristine corner lot, with a newer roof and HVAC unit. It is in Flood zone X so there are zero reasons to pass this one and every reason to check it out before it is gone!

2. 2026-05-09
   status Pending 688-char remark

   Show marketing remark (688 chars)

   Who doesn't love a beautiful new kitchen? With brand new gorgeous Leah Gold quartz countertops, a perfectly paired new backsplash, and a new large sink and faucet, this is a kitchen you will certainly want to call your own. The owner's primary suite has his and her separate vanities, and separate walk in closets. There are new blinds in all the windows, and with the updated paint this home is light and bright and so inviting. The living room is spacious and open to the dining and kitchen area, the home sits on a pristine corner lot, with a newer roof and HVAC unit. It is in Flood zone X so there are zero reasons to pass this one and every reason to check it out before it is gone!

3. 2026-04-30
   price $250,000 688-char remark

   Show marketing remark (688 chars)

   Who doesn't love a beautiful new kitchen? With brand new gorgeous Leah Gold quartz countertops, a perfectly paired new backsplash, and a new large sink and faucet, this is a kitchen you will certainly want to call your own. The owner's primary suite has his and her separate vanities, and separate walk in closets. There are new blinds in all the windows, and with the updated paint this home is light and bright and so inviting. The living room is spacious and open to the dining and kitchen area, the home sits on a pristine corner lot, with a newer roof and HVAC unit. It is in Flood zone X so there are zero reasons to pass this one and every reason to check it out before it is gone!

4. 2026-04-30
   price $250,000 688-char remark

   Show marketing remark (688 chars)

   Who doesn't love a beautiful new kitchen? With brand new gorgeous Leah Gold quartz countertops, a perfectly paired new backsplash, and a new large sink and faucet, this is a kitchen you will certainly want to call your own. The owner's primary suite has his and her separate vanities, and separate walk in closets. There are new blinds in all the windows, and with the updated paint this home is light and bright and so inviting. The living room is spacious and open to the dining and kitchen area, the home sits on a pristine corner lot, with a newer roof and HVAC unit. It is in Flood zone X so there are zero reasons to pass this one and every reason to check it out before it is gone!

5. 2026-03-31
   listed $257,900 Active 688-char remark

   Show marketing remark (688 chars)

   Who doesn't love a beautiful new kitchen? With brand new gorgeous Leah Gold quartz countertops, a perfectly paired new backsplash, and a new large sink and faucet, this is a kitchen you will certainly want to call your own. The owner's primary suite has his and her separate vanities, and separate walk in closets. There are new blinds in all the windows, and with the updated paint this home is light and bright and so inviting. The living room is spacious and open to the dining and kitchen area, the home sits on a pristine corner lot, with a newer roof and HVAC unit. It is in Flood zone X so there are zero reasons to pass this one and every reason to check it out before it is gone!

6. 2026-03-31
   listed $257,900 Active 688-char remark

   Show marketing remark (688 chars)

   Who doesn't love a beautiful new kitchen? With brand new gorgeous Leah Gold quartz countertops, a perfectly paired new backsplash, and a new large sink and faucet, this is a kitchen you will certainly want to call your own. The owner's primary suite has his and her separate vanities, and separate walk in closets. There are new blinds in all the windows, and with the updated paint this home is light and bright and so inviting. The living room is spacious and open to the dining and kitchen area, the home sits on a pristine corner lot, with a newer roof and HVAC unit. It is in Flood zone X so there are zero reasons to pass this one and every reason to check it out before it is gone!

7. 2016-11-18
   soldstatus Sold
8. 2016-11-18
   soldstatus $178,000
9. 2016-10-10
   status Pending
10. 2016-09-30
    price $187,400
11. 2016-09-10
    listed $194,100 Active
12. 2016-09-10
    listed $187,400
13. 2015-07-20
    soldstatus $164,000
14. 2015-07-17
    soldstatus Sold
15. 2015-03-16
    listed $167,000
16. 2015-03-16
    listed $167,000
17. 2009-11-24
    soldstatus $165,000
18. 2006-02-10
    soldstatus $132,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,631 · $136/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,631 · $136/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone A · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,167
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$1,631
• − Insurance: −$2,752
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,933
• − Management: −$1,933
• − HOA: −$144
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$5,504
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,321
• After-tax cash flow: $153/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ascension Parish
• NCES district ID: 2200090
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -31.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -25.00%
• Median HH income: $68,423
• Composite: 47.0/100
• National rank: #2347
• State rank: #7 of 98 in LA

Livability — Prairieville

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #70
• US rank: #8507

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Ascension Parish · 98,362 people
• City population: 49,278
• Metro: Baton Rouge, LA
• Population (ZIP): 49,084
• Household income: $82,521
• Rent vs Own: 22.0% rent · 78.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 863.0

Population outlook (Ascension County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 145,480 people
• By 2030: 158,329 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 183,741 · +26.3%
• By 2050: 207,615 · +42.7%
• By 2075: 260,244 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 289,576 · +99.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Black 26% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 15% Serbian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 9% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ascension

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+34.0) · D 32.2% · R 66.1% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.7pp toward D · 2008: -35.7pp · 2024: -34.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+34.0 2020: R+32.5 2016: R+36.0 2012: R+34.3 2008: R+35.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -89.49%
• Current HPI: 145.3384
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.26%
• Metro: Baton Rouge, LA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

+89.4% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Pending — AcadianaMLS
• 2026-05-09 Pending — GBRMLS
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $250,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $250,000 GBRMLS
• 2026-03-31 Listed $257,900 GBRMLS
• 2026-03-31 Listed $257,900 AcadianaMLS
• 2016-11-18 Sold (Public Records) $178,000 Public Records
• 2016-11-18 Sold (MLS) — GBRMLS
• 2016-10-10 Pending — GBRMLS
• 2016-09-30 Price Changed $187,400 GBRMLS
• 2016-09-10 Listed $194,100 GBRMLS
• 2016-09-10 Listed $187,400 AcadianaMLS
• 2015-07-20 Sold (Public Records) $164,000 Public Records
• 2015-07-17 Sold (MLS) — GBRMLS
• 2015-03-16 Listed $167,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2015-03-16 Listed $167,000 GBRMLS
• 2009-11-24 Sold (Public Records) $165,000 Public Records
• 2006-02-10 Sold (Public Records) $132,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,631 · -1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.