13829 Isleton Ave N · Hugo, MN 55038

$259,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 918 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 83 Days on market

Built 1930 2.00 ac lot $283/sqft · 21% below area Est $329k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Land for sale; 2-acre parcel with house, small garage and small horse barn. House, garage and barn considered marginal and likely need to be disposed. Buy as is or with house, garage and barn removed. Perfect neighborhood and space to build your new house.

Key facts

• 2 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1930

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $260k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $83 ($996/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $230k (11.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $230k (11.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.1% in Hugo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#314 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, schools A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Stillwater Area Public School District (suburban): math 53% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #54 of 301 in MN (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 279 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 1,405 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (121 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Washington County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($244k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $260k implies a 300% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $229,540 (11.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.37%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $329,297
• List price: $259,900
• Delta: -21.07%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-36,837
• Equity at exit: $38,752

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-25,296
• Equity at exit: $22,471

Cash invested: $72,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55038

• Home prices YoY: -31.6%
• Active inventory: 279
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,295 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax from tax record: −$259 /mo · $3,110/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$482
• Net cashflow: $83

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,190

Max offer price $259,900

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $230	-5% $157	+0% $83	+5% $9	+10% $-64
Rent	-10% $-98	-5% $-8	+0% $83	+5% $174	+10% $264
Rate	-1.0pp $214	-0.5pp $149	base $83	+0.5pp $16	+1.0pp $-53

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,975
• Closing costs: $7,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $259,900 Active 83 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $259,900 Active 82 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $259,900 Active 81 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $259,900 Active 80 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $259,900 Active 78 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $259,900 Active 77 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $259,900 Active 74 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $259,900 Active 73 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $259,900 Active 72 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $259,900 Active 69 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $259,900 Active 68 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $259,900 Active 67 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $259,900 Active 66 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $259,900 Active 65 DOM
15. 2026-05-11
    price $259,900 256-char remark

    Show marketing remark (256 chars)

    Land for sale; 2-acre parcel with house, small garage and small horse barn. House, garage and barn considered marginal and likely need to be disposed. Buy as is or with house, garage and barn removed. Perfect neighborhood and space to build your new house.

16. 2026-04-16
    price $349,500 256-char remark

    Show marketing remark (256 chars)

    Land for sale; 2-acre parcel with house, small garage and small horse barn. House, garage and barn considered marginal and likely need to be disposed. Buy as is or with house, garage and barn removed. Perfect neighborhood and space to build your new house.

17. 2026-03-27
    listed $389,000 Active 256-char remark

    Show marketing remark (256 chars)

    Land for sale; 2-acre parcel with house, small garage and small horse barn. House, garage and barn considered marginal and likely need to be disposed. Buy as is or with house, garage and barn removed. Perfect neighborhood and space to build your new house.

18. 1999-03-30
    soldstatus $65,000
19. 1999-03-25
    soldstatus $65,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,110 · $259/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,110 · $259/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,545
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,558
• − Property taxes: −$3,110
• − Insurance: −$1,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,204
• − Management: −$2,204
• − Depreciation: −$7,561
• Taxable loss: −$3,391
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$814
• After-tax cash flow: $1,809/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Stillwater Area Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2738190
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $84,438
• Composite: 49.8/100
• National rank: #1954
• State rank: #54 of 301 in MN

Livability — Hugo

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #314
• US rank: #7032

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hugo, MN
• County: Washington County · 235,613 people
• City population: 25,061
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 25,061
• Household income: $130,931
• Rent vs Own: 8.6% rent · 91.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 222.0

Population outlook (Washington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 278,554 people
• By 2030: 290,465 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 310,014 · +11.3%
• By 2050: 324,118 · +16.4%
• By 2075: 362,697 · +30.2%
• By 2100: 381,491 · +37.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Asian 4% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 14% Lithuanian 7% Romanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 2% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Washington

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+8.9) · D 53.5% · R 44.6% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.6pp toward D · 2008: 4.3pp · 2024: 8.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+8.9 2020: D+9.2 2016: D+1.9 2012: D+0.8 2008: D+4.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -103.33%
• Current HPI: 223.6524
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+299.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $259,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $349,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-27 Listed $389,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1999-03-30 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 1999-03-25 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,110 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.