14814 Mission Ave · Mont Belvieu, TX 77523

$339,990

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,861 sqft · SingleFamily · 24 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 6,500 sqft lot Garage $67/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +7.0/10.0
• Cash flow +6.1/30.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

ZONED TO BARBERS HILL ISD! Introducing the Hamilton home plan, a beautifully designed one-story residence that embraces the essence of open concept living. This layout seamlessly connects the gourmet kitchen to the dining area, making entertaining guests both easy and enjoyable. The kitchen features ample prep space and modern amenities, perfect for culinary enthusiasts. The well-appointed primary bedroom with en-suite offers a tranquil escape with a separate tub and shower, complemented by a spacious walk-in closet that ensures organization and convenience. Every secondary bedroom is thoughtfully designed with walk-in closets, providing plenty of storage for family members or guests. Experience the perfect blend of comfort and functionality in the Hamilton home plan, ideal for modern living. This home features the Harmony 2.0 Collection. Your next chapter awaits at Blue Heron Estates!

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Gourmet kitchen
• Dining area

Tags

• GOURMET KITCHEN
• DINING AREA
• PRIMARY BEDROOM
• EN-SUITE
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

🏗️ New construction. The $339,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $431,215.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $340k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-875 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $305k (10.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $283k (16.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $283k (16.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.0% vs local median 3.2% in Mont Belvieu — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#438 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Barbers Hill ISD (rural): math 72% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #12 of 826 in TX (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Barbers Hill El North (math 77% / reading 70%, grade A, #95 of 4,322 statewide, top 2%, 856 students, 30% FRL); Barbers Hill Middle North (math 68% / reading 62%, grade A-, #102 of 1,662 statewide, top 6%, 525 students, 0% FRL); Barbers Hill H S (math 70% / reading 74%, grade B+, #95 of 1,632 statewide, top 7%, 1,972 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 10% FRL vs 28% district-wide (18 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 1018 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 67d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 90% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 629 units permitted in Chambers County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chambers County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($335k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $80k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $283,364 (16.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.03%
• DSCR: 0.64
• GRM: 12.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $431,215
• List price: $339,990
• Delta: -21.16%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14942 Buffalo Head St	0.09mi	4/2.0	1,807 (-3%)	2mo	$430,000	$238	85
14810 Buffalo Head St	0.04mi	4/3.0	2,052 (+10%)	6mo	$429,990	$210	76
15034 Mission Ave	0.20mi	4/2.0	1,807 (-3%)	8mo	$439,990	$243	76
15027 Mission Ave	0.12mi	4/3.0	2,052 (+10%)	3mo	$463,000	$226	74
10007 Goliad Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,910 (+3%)	8mo	$339,990	$178	73
9910 Red Knot	0.11mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,079 (+12%)	5mo	$432,430	$208	62
15023 Gulfstream Park Ave	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,047 (+10%)	4mo	$400,000	$195	61
14807 Mission Ave	0.20mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,079 (+12%)	6mo	$349,990	$168	59
15214 Lake Front Dr	0.45mi	4/3.0	2,065 (+11%)	8mo	$369,900	$179	54
7419 Hillside Ave	0.54mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,759 (-6%)	8mo	$350,000	$199	50
15315 Lake Front Dr	0.57mi	4/2.0	2,047 (+10%)	7mo	$414,900	$203	47
15359 Spring Lake Ave	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,055 (+10%)	7mo	$439,900	$214	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.03×
• Total profit: $-124,272
• Equity at exit: $64,296

10-year hold

• IRR: -32.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.45×
• Total profit: $-174,483
• Equity at exit: $37,284

Cash invested: $120,740 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 16 active · 8 under contract
• Months of supply: 8.7 mo (11%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $399,245 ($199/sqft)
• Median days on market: 139 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: +16.2% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77523

• Home prices YoY: -31.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 1018
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,834 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,261
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$539 /mo · $6,468/yr
• Insurance: −$180
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$67
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$595
• Net cashflow: $-875

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,941

Max offer price $304,614

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-577	-5% $-726	+0% $-875	+5% $-1,024	+10% $-1,173
Rent	-10% $-1,099	-5% $-987	+0% $-875	+5% $-763	+10% $-651
Rate	-1.0pp $-658	-0.5pp $-765	base $-875	+0.5pp $-987	+1.0pp $-1,100

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $107,804
• Closing costs: $12,936
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9922 Red Knot ST Mont Belvieu, TX	5.0	3.0	2563	$3,399	$1.33	119d	1	0.22mi
14915 Lake Shore Ave Mont Belvieu, TX	4.0	4.0	2569	$2,321	$0.90	39d	1	0.23mi
7307 Hillside Ave Baytown, TX	4.0	2.5	2289	$2,756	$1.20	67d	1	0.39mi
7514 Oakmont Ave Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1932	$2,611	$1.35	70d	1	0.53mi
15334 Lake Front Dr Mont Belvieu, TX	4.0	2.0	2047	$3,000	$1.47	0d	1	0.65mi
131 Brazos Dr Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1857	$2,211	$1.19	54d	1	1.36mi
15218 Arnold Cove, TX	4.0	2.0	1751	$2,300	$1.31	38d	1	1.38mi
15114 Diamond Way Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1503	$1,671	$1.11	74d	1	1.45mi
14143 Medina Dr Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	2100	$2,495	$1.19	33d	1	1.49mi
15214 Harlin Baytown, TX	4.0	3.0	2139	$2,400	$1.12	75d	1	1.50mi

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Neighborhood association managed by Spectrum Association ManagementAnnual association fee of $800Community curbs

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener (2 spaces)
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyUnder construction (new construction)Slab foundationComposition roofBuilt in 2026
• Construction: Brick and stone constructionBuilt 2026
• Exterior features: Covered patioPatioDeckPrivate yardFenced backyardSubdivision settingConcrete road access

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherFree-standing rangeGas ovenGas rangeMicrowaveOvenGarbage disposal
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (first floor, approx. 15x14)Bedroom (first floor, approx. 11x11)Bedroom (first floor, approx. 11x10)Bedroom (first floor, approx. 11x10)
• Flooring: CarpetPlankTileVinyl
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas)Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Entrance foyerHigh ceilingsQuartz countersCeiling fansProgrammable thermostatLow emissivity windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookup

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $339,990 Active 24 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $339,990 Active 23 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $339,990 Active 22 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $339,990 Active 21 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $339,990 Active 20 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $339,990 Active 19 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $339,990 Active 18 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $339,990 Active 17 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $339,990 Active 16 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $339,990 Active 15 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    pricedays on market $339,990 Active 14 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $349,990 Active 13 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $349,990 Active 12 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $349,990 Active 11 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $349,990 Active 5 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $349,990 Active 4 DOM
17. 2026-09-02
    days on market $349,990 Active 2 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on marketlisting id $349,990 Active 1 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $349,990 Active 99 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $349,990 Active 98 DOM
21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $349,990 Active 97 DOM
22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $349,990 Active 95 DOM
23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $349,990 Active 94 DOM
24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $349,990 Active 93 DOM
25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $349,990 Active 92 DOM
26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $349,990 Active 91 DOM
27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $349,990 Active 90 DOM
28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $349,990 Active 89 DOM
29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $349,990 Active 88 DOM
30. 2026-08-17
    days on market $349,990 Active 87 DOM
31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $349,990 Active 86 DOM
32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $349,990 Active 85 DOM
33. 2026-08-14
    days on market $349,990 Active 84 DOM
34. 2026-08-13
    days on market $349,990 Active 83 DOM
35. 2026-08-12
    days on market $349,990 Active 82 DOM
36. 2026-08-11
    days on market $349,990 Active 81 DOM
37. 2026-08-10
    price $349,990 Active 80 DOM
38. 2026-08-10
    days on market $389,990 Active 80 DOM
39. 2026-08-09
    days on market $389,990 Active 79 DOM
40. 2026-08-08
    days on market $389,990 Active 78 DOM
41. 2026-08-06
    days on market $389,990 Active 76 DOM
42. 2026-08-05
    days on market $389,990 Active 75 DOM
43. 2026-08-04
    days on market $389,990 Active 74 DOM
44. 2026-08-03
    days on market $389,990 Active 73 DOM
45. 2026-07-31
    days on market $389,990 Active 70 DOM
46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $389,990 Active 68 DOM
47. 2026-07-28
    pricedays on market $389,990 Active 67 DOM
48. 2026-07-26
    days on market $399,990 Active 65 DOM
49. 2026-07-24
    days on market $399,990 Active 63 DOM
50. 2026-07-23
    days on market $399,990 Active 62 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,004
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,155
• − Property taxes: −$6,468
• − Insurance: −$2,954
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,720
• − Management: −$2,720
• − HOA: −$804
• − Depreciation: −$12,544
• Taxable loss: −$18,362
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,407
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,092/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 14 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It is ready for move-in and would benefit from minor updates to enhance curb appeal and modernize the interior.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value. ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Improves convenience and adds modern appeal. ↑
• Both Install smart thermostat — Saves energy and adds modern appeal. ↑
• Both Add smart lighting system — Saves energy and adds modern appeal. ↑

B Composite school gradezoned avg 70/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Barbers Hill El North A TX #95/4,322 Nat'l #2,597/41,679 Middle Barbers Hill Middle North A- TX #102/1,662 Nat'l #1,236/14,009 High Barbers Hill H S B+ TX #95/1,632 Nat'l #1,878/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Barbers Hill ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809450
• Math proficiency: 72% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $87,257
• Composite: 61.73/100
• National rank: #737
• State rank: #12 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 69/100

Livability — Mont Belvieu

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #438
• US rank: #8944

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mont Belvieu, TX
• County: Chambers County · 46,946 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,186
• Household income: $124,188
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 6% of renters

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Population outlook (Chambers County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,946 people
• By 2030: 51,094 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 59,578 · +26.9%
• By 2050: 68,318 · +45.5%
• By 2075: 90,485 · +92.7%
• By 2100: 104,885 · +123.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 11% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 17%

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Political lean MEDSL · Chambers

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.6) · D 16.8% · R 82.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.4pp toward R · 2008: -51.2pp · 2024: -65.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.6 2020: R+61.7 2016: R+62.1 2012: R+61.1 2008: R+51.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.33%
• Current HPI: 222.6999
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.42%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Neighborhood association managed by Spectrum Association ManagementAnnual association fee of $800Community curbs

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener (2 spaces)
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyUnder construction (new construction)Slab foundationComposition roofBuilt in 2026
• Construction: Brick and stone constructionBuilt 2026
• Exterior features: Covered patioPatioDeckPrivate yardFenced backyardSubdivision settingConcrete road access

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherFree-standing rangeGas ovenGas rangeMicrowaveOvenGarbage disposal
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (first floor, approx. 15x14)Bedroom (first floor, approx. 11x11)Bedroom (first floor, approx. 11x10)Bedroom (first floor, approx. 11x10)
• Flooring: CarpetPlankTileVinyl
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas)Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Entrance foyerHigh ceilingsQuartz countersCeiling fansProgrammable thermostatLow emissivity windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookup

Price history

-4.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Price Changed $399,990 HARMLS
• 2026-06-16 Price Changed $399,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-28 Price Changed $409,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-27 Price Changed $409,990 HARMLS
• 2026-05-22 Listed $419,800 Zillow
• 2026-05-22 Listed $419,800 HARMLS