121 E 33rd St · Covington, KY 41015

$164,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,350 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 62 Days on market

4,500 sqft lot Est $232k · 29% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Livability +4.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming 1.5-story home in Covington featuring 3 bedrooms and 1 full bath. This inviting property offers a functional layout with comfortable living spaces, a bright kitchen, and generously sized bedrooms. The upper level adds flexibility for additional living or storage. Enjoy a private yard perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and major highways with easy access to Cincinnati. Great opportunity for homeowners or investors!

Key facts

• 4,500 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Listed 62 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: On-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Water and sewer available
• Home design: Single family residence; One and one half stories; Existing structure
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Block foundation; Building area total approximately 4,356
• Exterior features: Deck; Porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (14 x 12); Bedroom 2 (10 x 9); Bedroom 3 (10 x 8)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating
• Interior features: Inoperable fireplace; Wood window frames

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $283 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $155k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 5.3% in Covington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#40 in KY, #376 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: employment D+.
• Covington Independent (suburban): math 10% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #162 of 165 in KY (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Ninth District Elementary (math 2% / reading 17%, grade F, #648 of 676 statewide, top 98%, 341 students, 87% FRL); Holmes Middle School (math 8% / reading 26%, grade F, #211 of 217 statewide, top 97%, 656 students, 84% FRL); Holmes High School (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #227 of 254 statewide, top 89%, 878 students, 80% FRL).
• Market conditions: 158 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 8d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 699 units permitted in Kenton County in 2024 (287 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kenton County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $155,006 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.35%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $232,200
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8 W 30th St	0.20mi	3/1.0	1,348 (-0%)	3mo	$77,600	$58	88
105 Blackburn Ave	0.37mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,364 (+1%)	3mo	$196,000	$144	74
3706 Glenn Ave	0.39mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,326 (-2%)	2mo	$217,500	$164	72
205 E 38th St	0.41mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,347 (-0%)	3mo	$231,500	$172	71
25 W 28th St	0.28mi	3/1.5	1,234 (-9%)	2mo	$266,000	$216	69
9 Madison Ct	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,297 (-4%)	2mo	$230,000	$177	67
123 W 34th St	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,472 (+9%)	3mo	$230,000	$156	64
3704 Huntington Ave	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,212 (-10%)	0mo	$220,000	$182	62
30 W 28th St	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,157 (-14%)	1mo	$200,000	$173	57
510 W Southern Ave	0.58mi	3/1.5	1,488 (+10%)	2mo	$215,000	$144	52
3150 Beech Ave	0.47mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,529 (+13%)	1mo	$290,000	$190	46
2709 Rosina Ave	0.59mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,220 (-10%)	2mo	$115,000	$94	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-8,733
• Equity at exit: $24,587

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.34×
• Total profit: $15,471
• Equity at exit: $14,258

Cash invested: $46,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 41015

• Active inventory: 158
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,684 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$114 /mo · $1,366/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$354
• Net cashflow: $283

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,326

Max offer price $164,900

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $376	-5% $330	+0% $283	+5% $236	+10% $190
Rent	-10% $150	-5% $216	+0% $283	+5% $349	+10% $416
Rate	-1.0pp $366	-0.5pp $325	base $283	+0.5pp $240	+1.0pp $197

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,225
• Closing costs: $4,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3918 Glenn Ave Unit 1 Covington, KY	2.0	1.0	1350	$1,449	$1.07	20d	1	0.63mi
2307 Center St Covington, KY	3.0	1.5	1216	$1,950	$1.60	8d	1	0.82mi
120 Vista Point Dr Wilder, KY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	854	$1,184	$1.39	3d	2	0.90mi
512 Wallace Ave Unit 512/18 Covington, KY	2.0	2.0	900	$1,299	$1.44	8d	1	0.96mi
2030 Mackoy St Covington, KY	3.0	1.5	1598	$1,779	$1.11	5d	1	1.00mi
400 Lakeview Dr #5 Wilder, KY	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,495	$1.36	3d	1	1.00mi
1927 Scott St Apt 1 Covington, KY	3.0	2.0	1865	$2,100	$1.13	20d	1	1.08mi
1700 Aspen Pines Dr Wilder, KY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1420	$2,365	$1.67	2d	14	1.16mi
24 Woodland Hills Dr #11 Southgate, KY	2.0	2.0	950	$1,445	$1.52	8d	1	1.23mi
2220 Cityscape Dr Covington, KY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	932	$1,985	$2.13	2d	9	1.30mi
1222 E Henry Clay Ave Fort Wright, KY	3.0	1.5	1200	$1,548	$1.29	24d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $164,900 Active 62 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $164,900 Active 61 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $164,900 Active 60 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $164,900 Active 59 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $164,900 Active 53 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $164,900 Active 52 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $164,900 Active 51 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $164,900 Active 47 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $164,900 Active 46 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $164,900 Active 45 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $164,900 Active 44 DOM
12. 2026-05-15
    price $169,900
13. 2026-04-17
    listed $174,900 Active
14. 2018-01-17
    soldstatus $1,059,400
15. 2012-09-10
    historical
16. 2012-04-20
    listed $52,900
17. 1996-10-29
    soldstatus $48,480

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,366 · $114/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,418 · $118/mo
• Expected delta: +$52/yr (+$4/mo · 3.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,206
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,237
• − Property taxes: −$1,366
• − Insurance: −$824
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,616
• − Management: −$1,616
• − Depreciation: −$4,797
• Taxable income: $748
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$180
• After-tax cash flow: $3,215/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Covington Independent
• NCES district ID: 2101350
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $33,681
• Composite: 15.04/100
• National rank: #9353
• State rank: #162 of 165 in KY

Livability — Covington

• Score: 86/100
• State rank: #40
• US rank: #376

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Covington, KY
• Population (ZIP): 20,396

Population outlook (Kenton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 174,205 people
• By 2030: 177,897 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 182,671 · +4.9%
• By 2050: 183,543 · +5.4%
• By 2075: 178,977 · +2.7%
• By 2100: 159,920 · -8.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 6% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Arabic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kenton

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.7) · D 38.2% · R 59.9% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.9pp no change · 2008: -20.9pp · 2024: -21.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.7 2020: R+19.3 2016: R+26.1 2012: R+24.3 2008: R+20.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -110.37%
• Current HPI: 203.7263
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+250.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $169,900 NKMLS
• 2026-04-17 Listed $174,900 NKMLS
• 2018-01-17 Sold (Public Records) $1,059,400 Public Records
• 2012-09-10 Listing Removed — NKMLS
• 2012-04-20 Listed $52,900 NKMLS
• 1996-10-29 Sold (Public Records) $48,480 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,366 · +0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.