Winslow Plan · Naples, FL 34120

$305,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,555 sqft · Townhouse · 174 Days on market

Excellent condition Garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

A new townhome design by award-winning Neal Communities. This 2-story home includes 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths and an attached garage. As soon as you enter the front door into the foyer, you are greeted by a well-appointed kitchen and large great room / dining space leading out to the covered lanai. A powder room, storage closet on the lanai, and access to the garage are also on the first floor.

Key facts

• Storage closet
• Covered lanai
• Large great room

Tags

• WELL-APPOINTED KITCHEN
• LARGE GREAT ROOM
• COVERED LANAI
• STORAGE CLOSET

🏗️ New construction. The $305,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $372,410.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $306k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-237 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $306k).
• Recommended offer: $269k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 2.4% in Naples — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#126 in FL, #1,903 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, employment A+; Watch: commute D+, cost of living F.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Estates Elementary School (math 70% / reading 67%, grade B+, #409 of 2,144 statewide, top 20%, 862 students, 53% FRL); Corkscrew Middle School (math 68% / reading 59%, grade B+, #109 of 571 statewide, top 19%, 958 students, 43% FRL); Palmetto Ridge High School (math 43% / reading 51%, grade D-, #207 of 667 statewide, top 32%, 2,347 students, 38% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 1299 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 70d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 45% of the median local income ($94k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 174 days — a 12% lower offer ($269k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $269,271 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 174 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.18%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $372,410
• List price: $305,990
• Delta: -17.84%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4564 Skysail Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,842 (+18%)	2mo	$460,093	$250	63
4682 40th St NE	1.30mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,568 (+1%)	3mo	$500,000	$319	54
3538 29th Ave NE	1.27mi	3/2.0	1,656 (+6%)	2mo	$525,000	$317	50
3231 41st Ave NE	1.22mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,616 (+4%)	3mo	$525,000	$325	49
3659 27th Ave NE	1.30mi	3/2.0	1,661 (+7%)	3mo	$528,000	$318	49
4507 Centaurus Cir	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,860 (+20%)	2mo	$472,000	$254	49
4285 47th Ave NE	1.31mi	3/2.0	1,708 (+10%)	0mo	$489,000	$286	46
3787 Everglades Blvd N	1.27mi	3/2.0	1,771 (+14%)	1mo	$545,000	$308	39
2941 37th Ave NE	1.45mi	3/2.0	1,943 (+25%)	1mo	$650,000	$335	37
3730 43rd Ave NE	0.84mi	3/2.0	1,903 (+22%)	2mo	$490,000	$257	36
4440 27th Ave NE	1.36mi	3/2.0	1,288 (-17%)	2mo	$445,000	$345	36
3508 27th Ave NE	1.50mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,906 (+23%)	1mo	$600,000	$315	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-85,395
• Equity at exit: $55,528

10-year hold

• IRR: -36.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.27×
• Total profit: $-132,152
• Equity at exit: $32,199

Cash invested: $104,275 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 5 active · 1 under contract
• Median asking: $316,990 ($194/sqft)
• Median days on market: 174 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: +23.6% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34120

• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 1299
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,497 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,953
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$466 /mo · $5,586/yr
• Insurance: −$155
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$734
• Net cashflow: $-237

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,798

Max offer price $338,072

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $20	-5% $-109	+0% $-237	+5% $-366	+10% $-495
Rent	-10% $-514	-5% $-375	+0% $-237	+5% $-99	+10% $39
Rate	-1.0pp $-50	-0.5pp $-143	base $-237	+0.5pp $-334	+1.0pp $-432

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $93,102
• Closing costs: $11,172
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4191 Pegasus Way Naples, FL	4.0	3.5	2014	$4,000	$1.99	70d	1	0.27mi
4003 Pegasus Way Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	1966	$3,300	$1.68	72d	1	0.28mi
3660 39th Ave NE Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1389	$2,900	$2.09	70d	1	0.56mi
3465 Everglades Blvd N Naples, FL	4.0	3.0	1928	$2,900	$1.50	70d	1	1.29mi
4383 Randall Blvd Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1735	$3,600	$2.07	72d	1	1.50mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: New construction inventory type: Plan
• Financial info: List price $305,990

Exterior

• Parking: 1 garage space (1 total parking space)
• Home design: Single-family plan (Winslow)Active status
• Exterior features: Living area of 1555

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan: Winslow

Listing history 49 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $305,990 Active 174 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $305,990 Active 173 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $305,990 Active 172 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $305,990 Active 171 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $305,990 Active 170 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $305,990 Active 169 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $305,990 Active 166 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $305,990 Active 165 DOM
9. 2026-07-29
   days on market $305,990 Active 164 DOM
10. 2026-07-27
    days on market $305,990 Active 162 DOM
11. 2026-07-25
    days on market $305,990 Active 160 DOM
12. 2026-07-24
    days on market $305,990 Active 159 DOM
13. 2026-07-23
    days on market $305,990 Active 158 DOM
14. 2026-07-22
    days on market $305,990 Active 157 DOM
15. 2026-07-22
    days on market $305,990 Active 156 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $305,990 Active 153 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $305,990 Active 151 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $305,990 Active 150 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $305,990 Active 149 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $305,990 Active 148 DOM
21. 2026-07-12
    days on market $305,990 Active 147 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $305,990 Active 146 DOM
23. 2026-07-09
    days on market $305,990 Active 144 DOM
24. 2026-07-08
    days on market $305,990 Active 143 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $305,990 Active 142 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $305,990 Active 141 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $305,990 Active 140 DOM
28. 2026-07-04
    days on market $305,990 Active 139 DOM
29. 2026-07-02
    days on marketlisting id $305,990 Active 137 DOM
30. 2026-07-01
    days on market $305,990 Active 22 DOM
31. 2026-06-30
    days on market $305,990 Active 21 DOM
32. 2026-06-29
    days on market $305,990 Active 20 DOM
33. 2026-06-28
    days on market $305,990 Active 19 DOM
34. 2026-06-27
    days on market $305,990 Active 17 DOM
35. 2026-06-25
    days on market $305,990 Active 15 DOM
36. 2026-06-23
    days on market $305,990 Active 13 DOM
37. 2026-06-22
    days on market $305,990 Active 12 DOM
38. 2026-06-18
    days on market $305,990 Active 9 DOM
39. 2026-06-17
    days on market $305,990 Active 8 DOM
40. 2026-06-16
    days on market $305,990 Active 7 DOM
41. 2026-06-15
    days on market $305,990 Active 6 DOM
42. 2026-06-10
    days on marketlisting id $305,990 Active 1 DOM
43. 2026-06-09
    days on market $305,990 Active 137 DOM
44. 2026-06-08
    days on market $305,990 Active 136 DOM
45. 2026-06-07
    days on market $305,990 Active 135 DOM
46. 2026-06-02
    days on market $305,990 Active 130 DOM
47. 2026-06-01
    days on market $305,990 Active 129 DOM
48. 2026-05-31
    days on market $305,990 Active 128 DOM
49. 2026-05-30
    days on market $305,990 Active 127 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 75% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $41,968
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,861
• − Property taxes: −$5,586
• − Insurance: −$6,981
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,357
• − Management: −$3,357
• − Depreciation: −$10,834
• Taxable loss: −$9,008
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,162
• After-tax cash flow: $-686/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This new townhome is in pristine condition with no visible signs of wear or damage. It is move-in ready and ideal for both resale and rental markets.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 60/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Estates Elementary School B+ FL #409/2,144 Nat'l #4,125/41,679 Middle Corkscrew Middle School B+ FL #109/571 Nat'l #1,406/14,009 High Palmetto Ridge High School D- FL #207/667 Nat'l #6,330/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Collier
• NCES district ID: 1200330
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,275
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1892
• State rank: #16 of 73 in FL

A Composite livability gradescore 80/100

Livability — Naples

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #126
• US rank: #1903

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute D+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Collier County · 420,858 people
• City population: 344,941
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• Population (ZIP): 42,345
• Household income: $93,861
• Rent vs Own: 9.4% rent · 90.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 14% of renters

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Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,858 people
• By 2030: 450,054 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 502,232 · +19.3%
• By 2050: 544,932 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 627,203 · +49.0%
• By 2100: 659,015 · +56.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 23% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 13%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 4% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 28% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 62% English-only · Spanish 28% French/Haitian/Cajun 5% Other Indo-European 3%

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Political lean MEDSL · Collier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -223.18%
• Current HPI: 316.2474
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.65%
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: New construction inventory type: Plan
• Financial info: List price $305,990

Exterior

• Parking: 1 garage space (1 total parking space)
• Home design: Single-family plan (Winslow)Active status
• Exterior features: Living area of 1555

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan: Winslow