1402 Mallard Duck Rd · Columbia, TN 38401

$199,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,112 sqft · Manufactured public records · 239 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 2025 Good condition $95/sqft · 29% below area Est $300k · 33% under ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -4.6

Listing remarks MLS

This stunning 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers everything you need for modern living. With a bright, open floor plan, it's perfect for both entertaining and everyday comfort. The large kitchen, featuring sleek stainless steel appliances and a large pantry, will inspire your inner chef. In addition, the luxurious primary suite is a true retreat, featuring a spacious bedroom and an expansive walk-in closet. The finished drywall throughout gives the home a sleek, polished feel, while the built-in entertainment center in the living room makes it perfect for movie nights or hosting friends. Book your tour today! We look forward to working with you.

Key facts

• Built 2025
• Listed 239 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $130 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $175k (12.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $175k (12.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 3.0% in Columbia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#207 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, crime F.
• Maury County (town): math 19% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #108 of 139 in TN (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Riverside Elementary (math 12% / reading 12%, grade F, #786 of 952 statewide, top 84%, 429 students, 0% FRL); E. A. Cox Middle School (math 6% / reading 7%, grade F, #284 of 333 statewide, top 86%, 656 students, 0% FRL); Columbia Central High School (math 7% / reading 27%, grade F, #225 of 332 statewide, top 69%, 1,474 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 48% district-wide (48 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 1327 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 52d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 83% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,650 units permitted in Maury County in 2024 (60 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($68k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maury County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 239 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $19k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,151 (12.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 239 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.99%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $299,900
• List price: $199,900
• Delta: -33.34%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1558 Oak Springs Dr	1.25mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,108 (-0%)	2mo	$434,990	$206	58
1112 Hiwassee Dr	1.16mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,106 (-0%)	2mo	$405,000	$192	58
618 Nightengale Ridge Dr	1.00mi	4/2.0	2,203 (+4%)	2mo	$442,800	$201	56
589 Nightengale Ridge Dr	1.28mi	4/2.5	2,203 (+4%)	2mo	$444,990	$202	54
584 Nightengale Ridge Dr	1.13mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,203 (+4%)	2mo	$454,485	$206	51
622 Nightengale Ridge Dr	0.99mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,203 (+4%)	2mo	$447,185	$203	51
609 Nightengale Ridge Dr	1.04mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,231 (+6%)	2mo	$401,145	$180	47
537 Nightengale Ridge Dr	1.30mi	4/2.5	2,372 (+12%)	2mo	$399,990	$169	41
103 Iberia Dr	1.33mi	4/3.0	2,392 (+13%)	1mo	$520,000	$217	38
115 Avalon Dr	1.30mi	4/2.5	2,565 (+21%)	0mo	$459,990	$179	38
613 Nightengale Ridge Dr	1.03mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,813 (-14%)	1mo	$401,190	$221	34
614 Nightengale Ridge Dr	1.02mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,740 (-18%)	2mo	$385,000	$221	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.97% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-20,613
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.14×
• Total profit: $7,638
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 3 active
• Median asking: $177,000 ($105/sqft)
• Median days on market: 78 d
• This list price: 67% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +34.8% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 38401

• Home prices YoY: -22.7%
• Rents YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 1327
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,752 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$66 /mo · $793/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $670/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$368
• Net cashflow: $130

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,587

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $243	-5% $187	+0% $130	+5% $74	+10% $17
Rent	-10% $-8	-5% $61	+0% $130	+5% $199	+10% $269
Rate	-1.0pp $231	-0.5pp $181	base $130	+0.5pp $78	+1.0pp $26

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
552 Nightengale Ridge Dr , TN	3.0	2.5	2163	$2,600	$1.20	41d	1	1.27mi
1827 Goldsberry St Columbia, TN	3.0	2.5	1503	$1,795	$1.19	65d	1	1.28mi
213 Granada Dr Columbia, TN	3.0	2.0	2050	$2,225	$1.09	47d	1	1.40mi
721 Poplar St Unit A Columbia, TN	4.0	2.5	1491	$2,500	$1.68	93d	1	1.44mi
721 Poplar St Unit B Columbia, TN	4.0	2.5	1491	$2,500	$1.68	52d	1	1.44mi
206 Greenview Dr Columbia, TN	3.0	1.0	1450	$1,600	$1.10	17d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,900 Active 239 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,900 Active 238 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,900 Active 237 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   days on market $199,900 Active 233 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $199,900 Active 232 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $199,900 Active 231 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $199,900 Active 230 DOM
8. 2026-03-14
   price $199,900 652-char remark

   Show marketing remark (652 chars)

   This stunning 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers everything you need for modern living. With a bright, open floor plan, it's perfect for both entertaining and everyday comfort. The large kitchen, featuring sleek stainless steel appliances and a large pantry, will inspire your inner chef. In addition, the luxurious primary suite is a true retreat, featuring a spacious bedroom and an expansive walk-in closet. The finished drywall throughout gives the home a sleek, polished feel, while the built-in entertainment center in the living room makes it perfect for movie nights or hosting friends. Book your tour today! We look forward to working with you.

9. 2025-12-19
   price $206,000 652-char remark

   Show marketing remark (652 chars)

   This stunning 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers everything you need for modern living. With a bright, open floor plan, it's perfect for both entertaining and everyday comfort. The large kitchen, featuring sleek stainless steel appliances and a large pantry, will inspire your inner chef. In addition, the luxurious primary suite is a true retreat, featuring a spacious bedroom and an expansive walk-in closet. The finished drywall throughout gives the home a sleek, polished feel, while the built-in entertainment center in the living room makes it perfect for movie nights or hosting friends. Book your tour today! We look forward to working with you.

10. 2025-12-05
    status Active 652-char remark

    Show marketing remark (652 chars)

    This stunning 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers everything you need for modern living. With a bright, open floor plan, it's perfect for both entertaining and everyday comfort. The large kitchen, featuring sleek stainless steel appliances and a large pantry, will inspire your inner chef. In addition, the luxurious primary suite is a true retreat, featuring a spacious bedroom and an expansive walk-in closet. The finished drywall throughout gives the home a sleek, polished feel, while the built-in entertainment center in the living room makes it perfect for movie nights or hosting friends. Book your tour today! We look forward to working with you.

11. 2025-11-06
    historical 652-char remark

    Show marketing remark (652 chars)

    This stunning 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers everything you need for modern living. With a bright, open floor plan, it's perfect for both entertaining and everyday comfort. The large kitchen, featuring sleek stainless steel appliances and a large pantry, will inspire your inner chef. In addition, the luxurious primary suite is a true retreat, featuring a spacious bedroom and an expansive walk-in closet. The finished drywall throughout gives the home a sleek, polished feel, while the built-in entertainment center in the living room makes it perfect for movie nights or hosting friends. Book your tour today! We look forward to working with you.

12. 2025-10-21
    historical
13. 2025-09-21
    listed $219,000 Active
14. 2025-09-13
    listed $219,000 Active 652-char remark

    Show marketing remark (652 chars)

    This stunning 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers everything you need for modern living. With a bright, open floor plan, it's perfect for both entertaining and everyday comfort. The large kitchen, featuring sleek stainless steel appliances and a large pantry, will inspire your inner chef. In addition, the luxurious primary suite is a true retreat, featuring a spacious bedroom and an expansive walk-in closet. The finished drywall throughout gives the home a sleek, polished feel, while the built-in entertainment center in the living room makes it perfect for movie nights or hosting friends. Book your tour today! We look forward to working with you.

15. 2025-09-03
    historical
16. 2025-08-29
    listed $225,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $793 · $66/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,419 · $118/mo
• Expected delta: +$626/yr (+$52/mo · 79.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,018
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$793
• − Insurance: −$1,670
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,681
• − Management: −$1,681
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$1,820
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$437
• After-tax cash flow: $1,999/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $10,560–$31,680 screening

This 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers a good condition with a good condition score of 80. It is move-in ready with a cosmetic rehab level and minimal repairs needed.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal ↑
• Rental Trim landscaping — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 13/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Riverside Elementary F TN #786/952 Nat'l #38,100/41,679 Middle Whitthorne Middle School F TN #257/333 Nat'l #13,307/14,009 High Columbia Central High School F TN #225/332 Nat'l #15,029/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Maury County
• NCES district ID: 4702760
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $47,668
• Composite: 17.69/100
• National rank: #9024
• State rank: #108 of 139 in TN

C Composite livability gradescore 63/100

Livability — Columbia

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #207
• US rank: #16090

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Columbia, TN
• County: Maury County · 102,894 people
• City population: 67,482
• Metro: Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN
• Population (ZIP): 67,482
• Household income: $68,475
• Rent vs Own: 29.9% rent · 70.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 6% of renters

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Population outlook (Maury County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 102,894 people
• By 2030: 110,269 · +7.2%
• By 2040: 124,426 · +20.9%
• By 2050: 137,543 · +33.7%
• By 2075: 167,438 · +62.7%
• By 2100: 184,489 · +79.3%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 12% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Serbian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5%

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Political lean MEDSL · Maury

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+44.6) · D 27.1% · R 71.8% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.2pp toward R · 2008: -38.4pp · 2024: -44.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+44.6 2020: R+36.5 2016: R+39.2 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+38.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -100.75%
• Current HPI: 343.0362
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.97%
• Metro: Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

-11.2% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-14 Price Changed $199,900 Zillow
• 2025-12-19 Price Changed $206,000 Zillow
• 2025-12-05 Relisted — Zillow
• 2025-11-06 Delisted — Zillow
• 2025-10-21 Listing Removed — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-21 Listed $219,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-13 Listed $219,000 Zillow
• 2025-09-03 Listing Removed — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-29 Listed $225,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+0.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $793 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.