1816 Duncan Ave · Swansea, IL 62226

$109,900

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,104 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 43 Days on market

Built 1969 0.31 ac lot Est $136k · 19% under ↓ 21% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +7.6/10.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Very well maintained one owner home being sold "as is". The owners loved this home and so will you. Beautiful hardwood floors are throughout most of the main level. The main bedroom has an ensuite half bath and hardwood floors. Two additional bedrooms have hardwood floors. On the first level is a living room and dining room with hardwood floors and an updated eat-in kitchen. The lower level has a large family room, half bath and laundry area. The over-sized 2 car garage also has built-in storage. Outdoors you can enjoy the patio and large yard. There is also a shed for storage.

Key facts

• 0.31 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1969

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $181 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $107k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 1.9% in Swansea — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#105 in IL, #1,705 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Belleville Twp Hsd 201 (suburban): math 21% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #308 of 620 in IL (top 50%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.6%/yr); 190 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 783 units permitted in St. Clair County in 2024 (378 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $760 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Clair County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($107k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.2% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $106,603 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.04%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $135,792
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1816 Duncan Ave	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,104 (0%)	0mo	$109,900	$100	96
1516 N 15th St	0.29mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,092 (-1%)	8mo	$135,000	$124	65
1637 N 16th St	0.44mi	3/1.0	1,056 (-4%)	2mo	$79,900	$76	63
5 Shawn Dr	0.49mi	3/1.0	1,053 (-5%)	2mo	$108,000	$103	60
4 Marlo Dr	0.69mi	3/1.0	1,128 (+2%)	1mo	$139,000	$123	56
1708 Anna Rose Dr	0.39mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,052 (-5%)	7mo	$99,500	$95	55
1712 N 15th St	0.34mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,173 (+6%)	13mo	$150,000	$128	50
1607 Caseyville Ave	0.35mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,004 (-9%)	9mo	$24,900	$25	48
906 N 17th St	0.73mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,100 (-0%)	9mo	$165,000	$150	45
231 Parkway Dr	0.66mi	3/1.5	1,222 (+11%)	3mo	$160,000	$131	43
222 Brackett St	0.70mi	3/1.0	1,189 (+8%)	6mo	$85,000	$71	41
326 Gilbert St	0.72mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,212 (+10%)	2mo	$154,900	$128	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.56% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-3,978
• Equity at exit: $16,386

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.69×
• Total profit: $21,184
• Equity at exit: $9,502

Cash invested: $30,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62226

• Rents YoY: 4.6%
• Active inventory: 190
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,386 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$576
• Tax from tax record: −$292 /mo · $3,510/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$291
• Net cashflow: $181

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,158

Max offer price $109,900

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,475
• Closing costs: $3,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1912 N 17th St Swansea, IL	2.0	1.0	1414	$1,500	$1.06	17d	1	0.57mi
1308 Caseyville Ave Swansea, IL	2.0	1.0	890	$1,200	$1.35	4d	1	0.62mi
213 Columbus Dr Belleville, IL	3.0	1.0	1040	$1,650	$1.59	23d	1	0.96mi
1671 Shadow Ridge Ct Belleville, IL	1.0–2.0	1.0	815	$1,325	$1.62	1d	12	0.98mi
1107 Bristow St Belleville, IL	3.0	1.0	1238	$1,500	$1.21	12d	1	1.01mi
54 Ben Louis Dr Belleville, IL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,145	$1.27	23d	1	1.05mi
308 Bobbie Dr Swansea, IL	2.0	2.0	1130	$1,500	$1.33	23d	1	1.13mi
310 N 10th St Belleville, IL	2.0	1.0	1270	$1,300	$1.02	1d	1	1.14mi
654 N 39th St Belleville, IL	3.0	1.0	984	$1,400	$1.42	17d	1	1.27mi
31 S 27th St Belleville, IL	2.0	1.0	1000	$915	$0.92	23d	1	1.29mi
1000 Royal Heights Rd Belleville, IL	2.0	1.5	1100	$1,345	$1.22	23d	1	1.31mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-23
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-11
   listed $109,900 Active
3. 2022-12-12
   status Pending 596-char remark

   Show marketing remark (596 chars)

   Very well maintained one owner home being sold "as is". The owners loved this home and so will you. Beautiful hardwood floors are throughout most of the main level. The main bedroom has an ensuite half bath and hardwood floors. Two additional bedrooms have hardwood floors. On the first level is a living room and dining room with hardwood floors and an updated eat-in kitchen. The lower level has a large family room, half bath and laundry area. The over-sized 2 car garage also has built-in storage. Outdoors you can enjoy the patio and large yard. There is also a shed for storage.

4. 2022-12-12
   soldstatus Closed 596-char remark

   Show marketing remark (596 chars)

   Very well maintained one owner home being sold "as is". The owners loved this home and so will you. Beautiful hardwood floors are throughout most of the main level. The main bedroom has an ensuite half bath and hardwood floors. Two additional bedrooms have hardwood floors. On the first level is a living room and dining room with hardwood floors and an updated eat-in kitchen. The lower level has a large family room, half bath and laundry area. The over-sized 2 car garage also has built-in storage. Outdoors you can enjoy the patio and large yard. There is also a shed for storage.

5. 2022-11-13
   historical Active Under Contract 596-char remark

   Show marketing remark (596 chars)

   Very well maintained one owner home being sold "as is". The owners loved this home and so will you. Beautiful hardwood floors are throughout most of the main level. The main bedroom has an ensuite half bath and hardwood floors. Two additional bedrooms have hardwood floors. On the first level is a living room and dining room with hardwood floors and an updated eat-in kitchen. The lower level has a large family room, half bath and laundry area. The over-sized 2 car garage also has built-in storage. Outdoors you can enjoy the patio and large yard. There is also a shed for storage.

6. 2022-11-11
   listed $139,900 Active 596-char remark

   Show marketing remark (596 chars)

   Very well maintained one owner home being sold "as is". The owners loved this home and so will you. Beautiful hardwood floors are throughout most of the main level. The main bedroom has an ensuite half bath and hardwood floors. Two additional bedrooms have hardwood floors. On the first level is a living room and dining room with hardwood floors and an updated eat-in kitchen. The lower level has a large family room, half bath and laundry area. The over-sized 2 car garage also has built-in storage. Outdoors you can enjoy the patio and large yard. There is also a shed for storage.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,510 · $292/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,510 · $292/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X · 74% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,636
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,156
• − Property taxes: −$3,510
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,331
• − Management: −$1,331
• − Depreciation: −$3,197
• Taxable income: $562
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$135
• After-tax cash flow: $2,033/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Belleville Twp Hsd 201
• NCES district ID: 1705640
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $58,064
• Composite: 22.39/100
• National rank: #8115
• State rank: #308 of 620 in IL

Livability — Swansea

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #105
• US rank: #1705

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Swansea, IL
• County: Saint Clair County · 169,691 people
• City population: 28,543
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 28,255
• Household income: $70,797
• Rent vs Own: 33.0% rent · 67.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 824.0

Population outlook (St. Clair County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 250,366 people
• By 2030: 240,511 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 217,391 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 192,699 · -23.0%
• By 2075: 140,637 · -43.8%
• By 2100: 100,499 · -59.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Black 24% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Chinese 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Clair

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+7.9) · D 53.0% · R 45.1% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: 22.4pp · 2024: 7.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+7.9 2020: D+8.7 2016: D+5.6 2012: D+14.5 2008: D+22.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.57%
• Current HPI: 133.9028
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.56%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

-21.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-11 Listed $109,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-12-12 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-12-12 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-11-13 Contingent — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-11-11 Listed $139,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2024): $3,510 · +10.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.