519 Loyal Valley Rd · Kerrville, TX 78028

$165,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,664 sqft · Manufactured public records · 38 Days on market

Built 1992 0.32 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.7/30.0
• DSCR +9.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cathedral ceiling, light, bright and open. Beautiful deck with hot tub spa and gazebo, separate greenhouse w/ exhaust fan & drip system, beautiful workshop for the "honey dos", fenced yard for the pet and covered oversized carport to protect from the rain.

Key facts

• Metal roof
• Hvac
• Walk-in tub

Tags

• METAL ROOF
• HVAC
• HOT WATER HEATER
• WALK-IN TUB
• FULL PERIMETER SKIRTING
• 15X10 SHED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Seller disclosure available
• Financial info: Lease not considered

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1992; Slab foundation
• Construction: Metal roof; Construction materials listed as unknown
• Exterior features: Located in a subdivision; Lot area about 0.3165 acres (13,788 sq ft)

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the first floor (approx. 15 x 15)
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 15 x 15); Bedroom on the first floor (approx. 10 x 10); Bedroom on the first floor (approx. 10 x 16); Total possible bedrooms: 3
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Six total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $449 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $160k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 2.1% in Kerrville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#25 in TX, #1,483 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, commute F.
• Kerrville ISD (town): math 45% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #220 of 826 in TX (top 27%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Peterson Middle (math 39% / reading 50%, grade D, #491 of 1,662 statewide, top 31%, 1,075 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 753 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 422 units permitted in Kerr County in 2024 (322 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kerr County population projected at +15% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 51% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $160,050 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.66%
• DSCR: 1.52
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.03% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $1,887
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.83×
• Total profit: $38,570
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78028

• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 753
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,885 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$106 /mo · $1,269/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$396
• Net cashflow: $449

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,316

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
302 Medio Vista Dr Kerrville, TX	3.0	1.5	1218	$2,150	$1.77	44d	1	0.40mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-07
   days on market $165,000 Pending 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-05
   days on market $165,000 Pending 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $165,000 Pending 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $165,000 Pending 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $165,000 Pending 33 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   status $165,000 Pending 32 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $165,000 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-05-30
   days on market $165,000 Active 31 DOM
9. 2026-04-29
   listed $165,000 Active 654-char remark
10. 2026-03-25
    historical
11. 2026-03-03
    price $184,000
12. 2026-02-23
    listed $194,900 New
13. 2002-11-08
    soldstatus

    Show marketing remark (272 chars)

    Cathedral ceiling, light, bright and open. Beautiful deck with hot tub spa and gazebo, separate greenhouse w/ exhaust fan & drip system, beautiful workshop for the "honey dos", fenced yard for the pet and covered oversized carport to protect from the rain.

14. 2002-06-12
    listed $83,900

    Show marketing remark (272 chars)

    Cathedral ceiling, light, bright and open. Beautiful deck with hot tub spa and gazebo, separate greenhouse w/ exhaust fan & drip system, beautiful workshop for the "honey dos", fenced yard for the pet and covered oversized carport to protect from the rain.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,269 · $106/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,020 · $252/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,751/yr (+$146/mo · 138.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 51% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,615
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$1,269
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,809
• − Management: −$1,809
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable income: $2,860
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$686
• After-tax cash flow: $4,702/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kerrville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825590
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,050
• Composite: 40.54/100
• National rank: #3702
• State rank: #220 of 826 in TX

Livability — Kerrville

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #25
• US rank: #1483

Category grades

Amenities A Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Kerr County · 41,206 people
• City population: 41,206
• Metro: Kerrville, TX
• Population (ZIP): 41,206
• Household income: $66,991
• Rent vs Own: 32.9% rent · 67.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1092.0

Population outlook (Kerr County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 54,010 people
• By 2030: 55,651 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 58,923 · +9.1%
• By 2050: 62,117 · +15.0%
• By 2075: 71,809 · +33.0%
• By 2100: 77,004 · +42.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 12% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Kerr

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+54.3) · D 22.4% · R 76.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.8pp toward R · 2008: -49.6pp · 2024: -54.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+54.3 2020: R+51.7 2016: R+56.3 2012: R+59.1 2008: R+49.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -260.97%
• Current HPI: 213.3663
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.03%
• Metro: Kerrville, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+96.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-07 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-31 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-29 Listed $165,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-25 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $184,000 LERA
• 2026-02-23 Listed $194,900 LERA
• 2002-11-08 Sold (MLS) — KVMLS
• 2002-06-12 Listed $83,900 KVMLS

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,269 · -1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.