9424 Lemon Drop Loop · Apollo Beach, FL 33573

$357,000

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,415 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 32 Days on market

Built 2022 4,235 sqft lot $13/mo HOA ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Appreciation +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. Spacious 5-bedroom home featuring a functional open-concept floorplan ideal for everyday living and entertaining. The modern kitchen offers ample white cabinetry, granite countertops, stainless-steel appliances, and a large island with breakfast bar seating so your home chef can keep loved ones close. The main-level primary suite includes a custom walk-in closet and an en-suite bathroom with dual sinks and a beautifully remodeled shower. Upstairs, a versatile loft provides additional living space perfect for a media room, home office, or play area. Ceiling fans are installed in all bedrooms and living areas for added comfort year-round. Enjoy communit

Key facts

• Large island
• Modern kitchen
• Granite countertops

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOORPLAN
• MODERN KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS-STEEL APPLIANCES
• LARGE ISLAND
• CUSTOM WALK-IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $357k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-286 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $306k (14.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $301k (15.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $301k (15.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#333 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, health & safety F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Belmont Elementary School (math 42% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,345 of 2,144 statewide, top 64%, 987 students, 44% FRL); East Bay High School (math 24% / reading 35%, grade F, #447 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 1,995 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools at 47% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 36% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Hillsborough average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 605 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,012/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($73k/yr) (locally 1382% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($346k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $301,168 (15.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.33%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.43%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.65% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-76,951
• Equity at exit: $53,230

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-94,087
• Equity at exit: $30,867

Cash invested: $99,960 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33573

• Home prices YoY: -1.2%
• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 605
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,012 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,872
• Tax from tax record: −$631 /mo · $7,575/yr
• Insurance: −$149
• HOA: −$13
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$632
• Net cashflow: $-286

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,374

Max offer price $306,486

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-84	-5% $-185	+0% $-286	+5% $-387	+10% $-488
Rent	-10% $-524	-5% $-405	+0% $-286	+5% $-167	+10% $-48
Rate	-1.0pp $-106	-0.5pp $-195	base $-286	+0.5pp $-378	+1.0pp $-473

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $89,250
• Closing costs: $10,710
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9648 Sage Creek Dr Sun City Center, FL	6.0	3.0	3153	$3,000	$0.95	20d	1	0.58mi
10018 Sage Creek Dr Sun City Center, FL	4.0	2.0	2598	$2,611	$1.01	26d	1	0.59mi
9924 Victory Gallop Loop Ruskin, FL	4.0	2.5	2535	$2,656	$1.05	24d	1	0.65mi
10040 Blackstone Creek CT Riverview, FL	3.0–4.0	2.5	1687	$2,995	$1.78	7d	20	0.74mi
10114 Point Given Ct Sun City Center, FL	4.0	2.5	2162	$2,327	$1.08	26d	1	0.86mi
6610 Brighton Park Dr Apollo Beach, FL	4.0	2.0	2567	$3,250	$1.27	7d	1	0.94mi
5448 Silver Sun Dr Apollo Beach, FL	4.0	2.0	1992	$4,000	$2.01	26d	1	0.96mi
10125 Count Fleet Dr Ruskin, FL	4.0	3.0	2529	$2,850	$1.13	14d	1	0.99mi
6328 Lantern View Pl Apollo Beach, FL	4.0	3.5	2184	$2,600	$1.19	19d	1	1.00mi
6214 Sea Amber Ln Apollo Beach, FL	4.0	3.0	2273	$3,200	$1.41	13d	1	1.00mi
10279 Newminster Loop Ruskin, FL	4.0	2.5	2576	$2,395	$0.93	26d	1	1.04mi
7006 Monarch Park Dr Apollo Beach, FL	4.0	2.0	1868	$2,425	$1.30	22d	1	1.15mi
10220 Newminster Loop Ruskin, FL	4.0	2.5	2483	$2,315	$0.93	17d	1	1.18mi
4529 Eternal Prince Dr Sun City Center, FL	4.0	2.5	1914	$2,450	$1.28	22d	1	1.34mi
5612 Limelight Dr Apollo Beach, FL	5.0	4.0	3245	$4,000	$1.23	13d	1	1.47mi
6725 Guilford Crest Dr Apollo Beach, FL	4.0	2.0	2646	$3,100	$1.17	7d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $13 · $156/yr

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-10
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-10
   price $357,000
3. 2026-04-07
   price $349,900
4. 2026-03-26
   price $356,900
5. 2026-03-17
   price $358,900
6. 2026-03-09
   listed $365,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,575 · $631/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,575 · $631/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,140
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,998
• − Property taxes: −$7,575
• − Insurance: −$1,785
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,891
• − Management: −$2,891
• − HOA: −$156
• − Depreciation: −$10,385
• Taxable loss: −$9,542
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,290
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,141/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — Apollo Beach

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #333
• US rank: #5784

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C Cost of living C- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Apollo Beach, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 26,495
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 35,362
• Household income: $72,834
• Rent vs Own: 17.3% rent · 82.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1382.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 11% Black 10% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 10% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -3.27%
• Current HPI: 272.9767
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.65%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-2.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $357,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $349,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $356,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $358,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-09 Listed $365,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-8.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,575 · +5.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.