318 N 10th St · Niles, MI 49120

$125,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,572 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 22 Days on market

Built 1927 7,840 sqft lot Est $196k · 36% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great Looking 3 bedroom with open floor plan. Lots of potential here.

Key facts

• 7,840 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1927

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Traditional style; Single family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Built in 1927; Aluminum siding; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Sidewalk

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen (9 x 16)
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (15 x 11); Bedroom 2 (11 x 11); Bedroom 3 (11 x 10); Bedroom 4; Bedroom 5
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; Primary bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating
• Interior features: Six total rooms; Full basement; Formal dining room; Family room; Living room; Recreation room; Den; Laundry room
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $208 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $123k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 4.4% in Niles — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#260 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D+, schools D, crime D-.
• Niles Community Schools (urban): math 33% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #248 of 540 in MI (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 210 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 397 units permitted in Berrien County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Berrien County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $33k; list at $125k implies a 279% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1927 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $123,125 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1927 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.12%
• DSCR: 1.32
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $196,500
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
718 Regent St	0.16mi	3/1.5	1,550 (-1%)	3mo	$140,000	$90	86
923 Regent St	0.09mi	3/1.5	1,695 (+8%)	4mo	$169,000	$100	77
724 Hickory St	0.39mi	3/1.0	1,600 (+2%)	2mo	$146,000	$91	77
1434 Sycamore St	0.43mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,544 (-2%)	1mo	$192,900	$125	71
1301 Regent St	0.23mi	3/1.0	1,368 (-13%)	0mo	$197,900	$145	67
1316 Eagle St	0.33mi	3/1.0	1,395 (-11%)	2mo	$130,000	$93	64
920 Cherry St	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,500 (-5%)	3mo	$192,900	$129	63
17 S 10th St	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,401 (-11%)	3mo	$180,250	$129	62
1120 Hickory St	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,780 (+13%)	2mo	$212,500	$119	53
739 Maple St	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,345 (-14%)	1mo	$171,000	$127	52
1639 Oak St	0.71mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,500 (-5%)	6mo	$284,000	$189	43
1201 N 6th St	0.64mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,697 (+8%)	5mo	$170,500	$100	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-7,014
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.31×
• Total profit: $11,009
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49120

• Active inventory: 210
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,362 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$161 /mo · $1,932/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$286
• Net cashflow: $208

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,100

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $278	-5% $243	+0% $208	+5% $172	+10% $137
Rent	-10% $100	-5% $154	+0% $208	+5% $261	+10% $315
Rate	-1.0pp $270	-0.5pp $239	base $208	+0.5pp $175	+1.0pp $142

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1900 E Main St Niles, MI	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	857	$1,005	$1.17	14d	1	1.25mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-05
   status $125,000 Pending 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $125,000 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $125,000 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $125,000 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $125,000 Active 19 DOM
6. 2026-05-30
   days on market $125,000 Active 18 DOM
7. 2026-05-08
   listed $125,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (69 chars)

   Great Looking 3 bedroom with open floor plan. Lots of potential here.

8. 2026-05-08
   listed $125,000 Active 69-char remark

   Show marketing remark (69 chars)

   Great Looking 3 bedroom with open floor plan. Lots of potential here.

9. 2026-05-08
   listed $125,000 Active 69-char remark

   Show marketing remark (69 chars)

   Great Looking 3 bedroom with open floor plan. Lots of potential here.

10. 2018-12-21
    soldstatus $33,011
11. 2018-12-21
    soldstatus $33,011 Sold
12. 2018-11-15
    status Pending
13. 2018-09-20
    price $33,000
14. 2018-08-31
    listed $33,000
15. 2018-08-31
    listed $39,900 Active
16. 2018-08-31
    listed $33,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,932 · $161/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,932 · $161/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,347
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,932
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,308
• − Management: −$1,308
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $536
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$129
• After-tax cash flow: $2,362/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Niles Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2625560
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,281
• Composite: 31.77/100
• National rank: #5894
• State rank: #248 of 540 in MI

Livability — Niles

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #260
• US rank: #6422

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D+ Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Niles, MI
• County: Berrien County · 71,477 people
• City population: 36,495
• Metro: Niles, MI
• Population (ZIP): 36,495
• Household income: $65,148
• Rent vs Own: 20.9% rent · 79.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 782.0

Population outlook (Berrien County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 149,273 people
• By 2030: 145,211 · -2.7%
• By 2040: 135,435 · -9.3%
• By 2050: 125,543 · -15.9%
• By 2075: 103,986 · -30.3%
• By 2100: 82,256 · -44.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Black 7% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Iranian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Berrien

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+7.9) · D 45.4% · R 53.2% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.3pp toward R · 2008: 5.5pp · 2024: -7.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+7.9 2020: R+7.4 2016: R+12.7 2012: R+6.6 2008: D+5.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -345.26%
• Current HPI: 195.8214
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Niles, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+278.8% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Listed $125,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-08 Listed $125,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-08 Listed $125,000 SW Michigan MLS
• 2018-12-21 Sold (MLS) $33,011 SW Michigan MLS
• 2018-12-21 Sold (MLS) $33,011 REALCOMP
• 2018-11-15 Pending — SW Michigan MLS
• 2018-09-20 Price Changed $33,000 SW Michigan MLS
• 2018-08-31 Listed $33,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2018-08-31 Listed $39,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2018-08-31 Listed $33,000 REALCOMP

Property tax history

+13.0%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,932 · +4.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.