501 Justin Ln SW · Shallotte, NC 28462

$150,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,620 sqft · Manufactured public records · 48 Days on market

Built 2002 1.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great Investment opportunity for thsi 3 bedroom 2 bath Double Wide on .50 acre. Sold As Is

Key facts

• Quiet road
• Private 1 acre lot
• Surrounded by nature

Tags

• PRIVATE 1 ACRE LOT
• QUIET ROAD
• SURROUNDED BY NATURE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: CO-RR; Lot approximately 1 acre (dimensions 174 x 240 x 174 x 265)

Exterior

• Parking: Unpaved off-street parking on site
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Cable available
• Home design: Manufactured home; Single-story / one level; Entry level is 1
• Construction: Vinyl siding and frame construction; Shingle roof; Crawl space/no basement
• Exterior features: Deck; Interior, level, wooded lot; Private road access; Has view; No pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Electric range
• Bedrooms: 5 total rooms (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating; Fireplace(s); Electric heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Accessible full bathroom
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $683 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $146k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.8% vs local median 4.0% in Shallotte — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#411 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: health & safety D, crime F, amenities F.
• Brunswick County Schools (rural): math 45% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #82 of 178 in NC (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Supply Elementary (math 46% / reading 39%, grade F, #625 of 1,410 statewide, top 45%, 539 students, 99% FRL); Cedar Grove Middle (math 30% / reading 36%, grade F, #305 of 475 statewide, top 65%, 434 students, 99% FRL); West Brunswick High (math 50% / reading 56%, grade C-, #281 of 535 statewide, top 53%, 1,526 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 53% district-wide (46 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 506 active listings in the ZIP; 6,112 units permitted in Brunswick County in 2024 (990 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brunswick County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $15k; list at $150k implies a 900% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,500 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.52%
• DSCR: 1.87
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.46×
• Total profit: $19,149
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.72×
• Total profit: $72,445
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28462

• Active inventory: 506
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,978 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$30 /mo · $360/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$415
• Net cashflow: $683

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,113

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 60%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $768	-5% $726	+0% $683	+5% $641	+10% $598
Rent	-10% $527	-5% $605	+0% $683	+5% $761	+10% $840
Rate	-1.0pp $759	-0.5pp $721	base $683	+0.5pp $644	+1.0pp $605

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $150,000 Active 48 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $150,000 Active 47 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $150,000 Active 46 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $150,000 Active 45 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $150,000 Active 43 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $150,000 Active 42 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $150,000 Active 40 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $150,000 Active 39 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $150,000 Active 38 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $150,000 Active 37 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $150,000 Active 34 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $150,000 Active 33 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $150,000 Active 32 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $150,000 Active 31 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $150,000 Active 30 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $150,000 Active 29 DOM
17. 2026-05-05
    price $165,000
18. 2026-05-01
    listed $180,000 Active
19. 2011-07-08
    soldstatus $15,000 90-char remark

    Show marketing remark (90 chars)

    Great Investment opportunity for thsi 3 bedroom 2 bath Double Wide on .50 acre. Sold As Is

20. 2011-04-22
    listed $20,900 90-char remark

    Show marketing remark (90 chars)

    Great Investment opportunity for thsi 3 bedroom 2 bath Double Wide on .50 acre. Sold As Is

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $360 · $30/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,230 · $102/mo
• Expected delta: +$870/yr (+$73/mo · 241.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 67% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,733
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$360
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,899
• − Management: −$1,899
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $6,060
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,454
• After-tax cash flow: $6,746/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brunswick County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700420
• Math proficiency: 45% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $47,494
• Composite: 39.23/100
• National rank: #4011
• State rank: #82 of 178 in NC

Livability — Shallotte

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #411
• US rank: #15490

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Brunswick County · 131,536 people
• City population: 11,219
• Metro: Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC-NC
• Population (ZIP): 12,340
• Household income: $60,349
• Rent vs Own: 15.5% rent · 84.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 269.0

Population outlook (Brunswick County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 152,111 people
• By 2030: 165,705 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 188,494 · +23.9%
• By 2050: 206,228 · +35.6%
• By 2075: 237,876 · +56.4%
• By 2100: 251,451 · +65.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Black 7% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Lithuanian 4% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brunswick

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.9) · D 37.2% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.9pp toward R · 2008: -17.9pp · 2024: -24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.9 2020: R+25.0 2016: R+28.7 2012: R+22.2 2008: R+17.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -259.44%
• Current HPI: 144.2462
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC-NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+689.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $165,000 Hive MLS
• 2026-05-01 Listed $180,000 Hive MLS
• 2011-07-08 Sold (MLS) $15,000 Hive MLS
• 2011-04-22 Listed $20,900 Hive MLS

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $360 · +4.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.