470 Pr 1519 · Lake Medina Shores, TX 78003

$119,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured public records · 151 Days on market

Built 2015 0.28 ac lot $99/sqft · 36% below area Est $188k · 36% under $45/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.6/10.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

A peaceful country retreat offering the perfect blend of privacy, space, and Texas charm. Nestled on a quiet road, this property provides a serene setting ideal for those seeking a slower pace while still enjoying convenient access to nearby towns and amenities. This property offers wide-open skies, beautiful natural surroundings, and room to make it your own. Enjoy the tranquility of rural living with the freedom to customize your vision!! Opportunities like this don't come around often - schedule a showing and experience the possibilities at 470 PR 1519.

Key facts

• Rural living
• Country retreat
• Natural surroundings

Tags

• COUNTRY RETREAT
• NATURAL SURROUNDINGS
• RURAL LIVING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $531 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $106k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.6% vs local median 4.8% in Lake Medina Shores — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,318 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Hondo ISD (town): math 35% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #502 of 826 in TX (top 61%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 531 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 102 units permitted in Medina County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $829 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Medina County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 151 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 63% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $105,512 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 151 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.46% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.99%
• DSCR: 1.84
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $188,199
• List price: $119,900
• Delta: -36.29%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.43×
• Total profit: $14,442
• Equity at exit: $17,877

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.68×
• Total profit: $56,301
• Equity at exit: $10,367

Cash invested: $33,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78003

• Home prices YoY: -14.3%
• Active inventory: 531
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,750 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$128 /mo · $1,531/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$45
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$368
• Net cashflow: $531

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,078

Max offer price $119,900

Occupancy floor 65%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $599	-5% $565	+0% $531	+5% $497	+10% $463
Rent	-10% $393	-5% $462	+0% $531	+5% $600	+10% $669
Rate	-1.0pp $592	-0.5pp $562	base $531	+0.5pp $500	+1.0pp $468

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,975
• Closing costs: $3,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1110 Grandview Cir Bandera, TX	2.0	2.0	1125	$1,750	$1.56	44d	1	0.95mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $45 · $540/yr

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $119,900 Active 151 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,900 Active 149 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,900 Active 148 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,900 Active 147 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,900 Active 146 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $119,900 Active 144 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $119,900 Active 143 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $119,900 Active 140 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $119,900 Active 139 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $119,900 Active 138 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $119,900 Active 137 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $119,900 Active 134 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $119,900 Active 133 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $119,900 Active 132 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,900 Active 131 DOM
16. 2026-05-08
    price $119,900 569-char remark

    Show marketing remark (569 chars)

    A peaceful country retreat offering the perfect blend of privacy, space, and Texas charm. Nestled on a quiet road, this property provides a serene setting ideal for those seeking a slower pace while still enjoying convenient access to nearby towns and amenities. This property offers wide-open skies, beautiful natural surroundings, and room to make it your own. Enjoy the tranquility of rural living with the freedom to customize your vision!! Opportunities like this don't come around often - schedule a showing and experience the possibilities at 470 PR 1519.

17. 2026-02-28
    price $125,000 569-char remark

    Show marketing remark (569 chars)

    A peaceful country retreat offering the perfect blend of privacy, space, and Texas charm. Nestled on a quiet road, this property provides a serene setting ideal for those seeking a slower pace while still enjoying convenient access to nearby towns and amenities. This property offers wide-open skies, beautiful natural surroundings, and room to make it your own. Enjoy the tranquility of rural living with the freedom to customize your vision!! Opportunities like this don't come around often - schedule a showing and experience the possibilities at 470 PR 1519.

18. 2026-01-20
    listed $135,000 New 569-char remark

    Show marketing remark (569 chars)

    A peaceful country retreat offering the perfect blend of privacy, space, and Texas charm. Nestled on a quiet road, this property provides a serene setting ideal for those seeking a slower pace while still enjoying convenient access to nearby towns and amenities. This property offers wide-open skies, beautiful natural surroundings, and room to make it your own. Enjoy the tranquility of rural living with the freedom to customize your vision!! Opportunities like this don't come around often - schedule a showing and experience the possibilities at 470 PR 1519.

19. 2020-02-27
    soldstatus
20. 2020-02-26
    soldstatus Sold 520-char remark

    Show marketing remark (520 chars)

    Unwind in the quiet Medina Lake community of Holiday Villages. Whether you need a place to get away for the weekend to fish, boat, jet ski, play & rest, or if a day to day relaxed lifestyle is in your plans, this low maintenance manufactured home may be just the thing. Room for your toys and extra items in the 10 X 12 storage shed. Large decks & yard for fun gatherings. Boat ramp, fishing pier, pool, playground, park, gated entry, & so much more. Just minutes from Bandera, TX, where the fun never sets.

21. 2020-02-20
    status Pending 520-char remark

    Show marketing remark (520 chars)

    Unwind in the quiet Medina Lake community of Holiday Villages. Whether you need a place to get away for the weekend to fish, boat, jet ski, play & rest, or if a day to day relaxed lifestyle is in your plans, this low maintenance manufactured home may be just the thing. Room for your toys and extra items in the 10 X 12 storage shed. Large decks & yard for fun gatherings. Boat ramp, fishing pier, pool, playground, park, gated entry, & so much more. Just minutes from Bandera, TX, where the fun never sets.

22. 2020-02-07
    historical Active Option 520-char remark

    Show marketing remark (520 chars)

    Unwind in the quiet Medina Lake community of Holiday Villages. Whether you need a place to get away for the weekend to fish, boat, jet ski, play & rest, or if a day to day relaxed lifestyle is in your plans, this low maintenance manufactured home may be just the thing. Room for your toys and extra items in the 10 X 12 storage shed. Large decks & yard for fun gatherings. Boat ramp, fishing pier, pool, playground, park, gated entry, & so much more. Just minutes from Bandera, TX, where the fun never sets.

23. 2020-01-14
    listed $79,000 New 520-char remark

    Show marketing remark (520 chars)

    Unwind in the quiet Medina Lake community of Holiday Villages. Whether you need a place to get away for the weekend to fish, boat, jet ski, play & rest, or if a day to day relaxed lifestyle is in your plans, this low maintenance manufactured home may be just the thing. Room for your toys and extra items in the 10 X 12 storage shed. Large decks & yard for fun gatherings. Boat ramp, fishing pier, pool, playground, park, gated entry, & so much more. Just minutes from Bandera, TX, where the fun never sets.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,531 · $128/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,194 · $183/mo
• Expected delta: +$663/yr (+$55/mo · 43.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 63% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,716
• − Property taxes: −$1,531
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,680
• − Management: −$1,680
• − HOA: −$540
• − Depreciation: −$3,488
• Taxable income: $4,765
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,144
• After-tax cash flow: $5,230/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hondo ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823430
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $47,344
• Composite: 30.51/100
• National rank: #6215
• State rank: #502 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lake Medina Shores

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1318
• US rank: #22715

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,594

Population outlook (Medina County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 54,332 people
• By 2030: 57,250 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 62,563 · +15.1%
• By 2050: 67,386 · +24.0%
• By 2075: 79,538 · +46.4%
• By 2100: 84,624 · +55.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 15% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Serbian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 14% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Medina

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.8) · D 28.2% · R 71.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.9pp toward R · 2008: -33.9pp · 2024: -42.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.8 2020: R+39.2 2016: R+43.2 2012: R+39.2 2008: R+33.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -35.80%
• Current HPI: 215.0687
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+51.8% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $119,900 LERA
• 2026-02-28 Price Changed $125,000 LERA
• 2026-01-20 Listed $135,000 LERA
• 2020-02-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-02-26 Sold (MLS) — LERA
• 2020-02-20 Pending — LERA
• 2020-02-07 Contingent — LERA
• 2020-01-14 Listed $79,000 LERA

Property tax history

+15.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,531 · +4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.