31 Earl Pl · Buffalo, NY 14211

$99,000

6 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,956 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1900 5,270 sqft lot $51/sqft · 39% below area Est $162k · 39% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +6.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks MLS

Discover this beautiful updated ready-to-move multi family home with 2 bedroom and 1 bathroom on each floor. It’s a perfect investment property with potential yield, close to job opportunity zone. The entire property was renovated and painted. The exquisite interiors with wonderful vinyl floor, wide windows make you feel at home with comfort, peace and tranquility. The home is accessible to all amenities and facilities within 5 minutes walking distance and access to all major highways and state ways. The side vacant lot is a bonus with your home. The grassy ground could be a playground for the kids and pets.

Key facts

• Investment property
• Side vacant lot
• 5,270 sq ft lot

Tags

• UPDATED MULTI FAMILY HOME
• INVESTMENT PROPERTY
• RENOVATED AND PAINTED
• ACCESSIBLE TO AMENITIES
• SIDE VACANT LOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($25k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $99k).
• Cap rate 31.8% vs local median 8.0% in Buffalo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 172 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,397/mo this rent would consume 112% of the median local household income ($36k/yr) (locally 1804% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($684 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (2.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (2.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (23%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $99k implies a 230% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $99,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.43% ✓
• Cap rate: 31.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 91.09%
• DSCR: 5.05
• GRM: 2.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $161,936
• List price: $99,000
• Delta: -20.34%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
161 Dodge St	0.56mi	6/2.0	2,007 (+3%)	9mo	$104,000	$52	62
227 Timon St	0.39mi	6/2.0	2,084 (+6%)	10mo	$190,000	$91	62
65 Kingsley St	0.48mi	5/2.0 (-1)	1,884 (-4%)	11mo	$230,000	$122	58
396 Guilford St	0.46mi	6/3.0	2,144 (+10%)	2mo	$135,000	$63	57
443 Madison St	0.59mi	5/2.0 (-1)	1,892 (-3%)	8mo	$75,000	$40	55
424 Dodge St	0.33mi	6/2.0	2,142 (+10%)	21mo	$245,000	$114	51
352 Guilford St	0.45mi	5/2.0 (-1)	2,088 (+7%)	14mo	$120,000	$57	51
494 Wilson St	0.64mi	6/2.0	2,148 (+10%)	11mo	$121,000	$56	44
301 Reed St	0.53mi	6/2.0	2,224 (+14%)	20mo	$65,000	$29	36
11 Dupont St	0.72mi	6/2.0	2,146 (+10%)	20mo	$125,000	$58	34
38 Fox St	0.66mi	6/2.0	2,172 (+11%)	23mo	$65,000	$30	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.05% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 94.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.09×
• Total profit: $141,031
• Equity at exit: $39,312

10-year hold

• IRR: 94.9%
• Equity multiple: 12.56×
• Total profit: $320,575
• Equity at exit: $56,813

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14211

• Home prices YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 172
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,397 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax from tax record: −$19 /mo · $230/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$713
• Net cashflow: $2,104

Break-even live

Break-even rent $734

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 33%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1	$3,396
Total (2 units)			$3,397

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
518 Wilson St Buffalo, NY	5.0	1.5	1848	$1,500	$0.81	23d	1	0.66mi

Listing history 35 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,000 Active 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,000 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,000 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,000 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,000 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 693-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on marketlisting id $99,000 Active 2 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $129,000 Active 186 DOM
9. 2025-11-26
   listed $129,000 Active 621-char remark

   Show marketing remark (621 chars)

   Discover this beautiful updated ready-to-move multi family home with 2 bedroom and 1 bathroom on each floor. It’s a perfect investment property with potential yield, close to job opportunity zone. The entire property was renovated and painted. The exquisite interiors with wonderful vinyl floor, wide windows make you feel at home with comfort, peace and tranquility. The home is accessible to all amenities and facilities within 5 minutes walking distance and access to all major highways and state ways. The side vacant lot is a bonus with your home. The grassy ground could be a playground for the kids and pets.

10. 2025-07-21
    historical
11. 2025-06-24
    price $129,900
12. 2025-05-13
    price $139,500
13. 2025-04-21
    listed $140,500 Active
14. 2024-09-23
    soldstatus $30,000
15. 2024-04-17
    price $109,000
16. 2024-03-08
    price $109,900
17. 2024-03-05
    listed $99,900 Active
18. 2024-01-17
    historical
19. 2023-11-24
    price $99,900
20. 2023-11-15
    price $120,000
21. 2023-09-27
    price $104,999
22. 2023-09-26
    listed $99,900 Active
23. 2023-08-22
    soldstatus $30,000
24. 2020-11-18
    soldstatus $67,000 Closed Sale or Rented
25. 2020-08-20
    status Pending Sale
26. 2020-08-04
    status Under Contract- Do Not Show
27. 2020-07-23
    historical Continue to Show- Under Contract
28. 2020-06-30
    status Under Contract- Do Not Show
29. 2019-11-04
    listed $58,000 Active
30. 2019-10-31
    historical
31. 2019-08-02
    price $58,000
32. 2019-04-15
    price $59,900
33. 2019-01-16
    price $64,998
34. 2018-10-10
    listed $64,999 Active
35. 2017-08-28
    soldstatus $41,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $230 · $19/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $951 · $79/mo
• Expected delta: +$722/yr (+$60/mo · 314.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,764
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$230
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,261
• − Management: −$3,261
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $25,091
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$6,022
• After-tax cash flow: $19,227/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buffalo City School District
• NCES district ID: 3605850
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,665
• Composite: 33.17/100
• National rank: #5544
• State rank: #535 of 590 in NY

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3011

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buffalo, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 440,021
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 24,663
• Household income: $36,300
• Rent vs Own: 54.8% rent · 45.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1804.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 59% Asian 20% Hispanic / Latino 9% White 9% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Philippines, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Other Indo-European 14% Spanish 6% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• Current HPI: 357.6438
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+214.6% since first listed

27 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-26 Listed $129,000 WNYREIS
• 2025-07-21 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2025-06-24 Price Changed $129,900 WNYREIS
• 2025-05-13 Price Changed $139,500 WNYREIS
• 2025-04-21 Listed $140,500 WNYREIS
• 2024-09-23 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records
• 2024-04-17 Price Changed $109,000 WNYREIS
• 2024-03-08 Price Changed $109,900 WNYREIS
• 2024-03-05 Listed $99,900 WNYREIS
• 2024-01-17 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2023-11-24 Price Changed $99,900 WNYREIS
• 2023-11-15 Price Changed $120,000 WNYREIS
• 2023-09-27 Price Changed $104,999 WNYREIS
• 2023-09-26 Listed $99,900 WNYREIS
• 2023-08-22 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records
• 2020-11-18 Sold (MLS) $67,000 WNYREIS
• 2020-08-20 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2020-08-04 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2020-07-23 Contingent — WNYREIS
• 2020-06-30 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2019-11-04 Listed $58,000 WNYREIS
• 2019-10-31 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2019-08-02 Price Changed $58,000 WNYREIS
• 2019-04-15 Price Changed $59,900 WNYREIS
• 2019-01-16 Price Changed $64,998 WNYREIS
• 2018-10-10 Listed $64,999 WNYREIS
• 2017-08-28 Sold (Public Records) $41,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $230 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.