411 Kerfoot Ave · Front Royal, VA 22630

$282,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,322 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 72 Days on market

Built 1950 0.26 ac lot $213/sqft · 11% below area Est $318k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.6/15.0
• Cash flow +10.4/30.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Rent growth +4.6/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This delightful Cape Cod home exudes warmth and character. Built in 1950, it offers a perfect blend of classic architecture and modern comfort. With 1,322 sq. ft. of thoughtfully designed living space, this 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom residence is ideal for those seeking a cozy retreat. Step inside to discover a welcoming interior that invites relaxation. The spacious layout features a rear entrance leading to a versatile basement, perfect for storage or a creative workspace. Enjoy the convenience of a detached garage with space for two vehicles, ensuring easy access and ample parking. Set on a generous 0.26-acre lot, the outdoor space provides endless possibilities for gardening, entertaining, or simply unwinding in the fresh air.

Key facts

• Versatile basement
• Cape cod home
• Classic architecture

Tags

• CAPE COD HOME
• CLASSIC ARCHITECTURE
• WELCOMING INTERIOR
• VERSATILE BASEMENT
• DETACHED GARAGE
• OUTDOOR SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $282k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-151 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $255k (9.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $198k (29.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $198k (29.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.1% in Front Royal — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#162 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, housing A, cost of living B+; Watch: commute F, employment D-.
• Warren County Public School District (town): math 49% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #70 of 131 in VA (top 53%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Ressie Jeffries Elementary (math 56% / reading 64%, grade B-, #533 of 1,108 statewide, top 48%, 639 students, 66% FRL); Skyline High (math 36% / reading 77%, grade C, #270 of 319 statewide, top 86%, 893 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 66% FRL vs 34% district-wide (32 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.3%/yr); 283 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 170 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Warren County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($265k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $198,049 (29.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.65%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.30%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $317,694
• List price: $282,000
• Delta: -11.24%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
334 Brown Ave	0.10mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,428 (+8%)	9mo	$370,000	$259	70
308 W Main St	0.44mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,344 (+2%)	4mo	$315,000	$234	66
203 Short St	0.75mi	2/1.5	1,306 (-1%)	16mo	$280,000	$214	48
250 Rivermont Acres Rd	0.50mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (-6%)	20mo	$615,400	$493	46
107 Scott St	0.73mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,400 (+6%)	9mo	$389,900	$279	42
314 Pine St	0.68mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,132 (-14%)	18mo	$265,000	$234	22

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-44,979
• Equity at exit: $42,047

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-4,398
• Equity at exit: $24,382

Cash invested: $78,960 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22630

• Home prices YoY: -27.1%
• Rents YoY: 8.3%
• Active inventory: 283
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,980 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,479
• Tax from tax record: −$120 /mo · $1,435/yr
• Insurance: −$118
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$416
• Net cashflow: $-151

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,172

Max offer price $255,273

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $8	-5% $-71	+0% $-151	+5% $-231	+10% $-311
Rent	-10% $-308	-5% $-230	+0% $-151	+5% $-73	+10% $5
Rate	-1.0pp $-9	-0.5pp $-80	base $-151	+0.5pp $-224	+1.0pp $-299

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,500
• Closing costs: $8,460
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
228 Cloud St Unit UPPER Front Royal, VA	2.0	1.0	884	$1,200	$1.36	22d	1	0.78mi
291 Acton St Front Royal, VA	3.0	2.5	1560	$2,500	$1.60	0d	1	0.80mi
436 Acton St Front Royal, VA	3.0	1.0	1198	$1,850	$1.54	18d	1	0.82mi
310 Frazer Pl Front Royal, VA	2.0	2.0	1104	$2,000	$1.81	45d	1	0.92mi
221 Fletcher St #2 Front Royal, VA	3.0	1.0	980	$1,440	$1.47	7d	1	0.93mi
352 W 11th St Front Royal, VA	2.0	2.5	1560	$2,600	$1.67	45d	1	1.10mi
350 W 11th St Front Royal, VA	3.0	2.5	1560	$2,600	$1.67	45d	1	1.10mi
1127 N Royal Ave Unit B Front Royal, VA	2.0	2.0	900	$1,500	$1.67	26d	1	1.31mi
1127 N Royal Ave Unit B Front Royal, VA	2.0	2.0	900	$1,500	$1.67	13d	1	1.31mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $282,000 Active 72 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $282,000 Active 69 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $282,000 Active 68 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $282,000 Active 67 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $282,000 Active 66 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $282,000 Active 64 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $282,000 Active 60 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $282,000 Active 59 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $282,000 Active 58 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $282,000 Active 55 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $282,000 Active 54 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $282,000 Active 53 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $282,000 Active 52 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $282,000 Active 51 DOM
15. 2026-05-14
    status Active 735-char remark

    Show marketing remark (735 chars)

    This delightful Cape Cod home exudes warmth and character. Built in 1950, it offers a perfect blend of classic architecture and modern comfort. With 1,322 sq. ft. of thoughtfully designed living space, this 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom residence is ideal for those seeking a cozy retreat. Step inside to discover a welcoming interior that invites relaxation. The spacious layout features a rear entrance leading to a versatile basement, perfect for storage or a creative workspace. Enjoy the convenience of a detached garage with space for two vehicles, ensuring easy access and ample parking. Set on a generous 0.26-acre lot, the outdoor space provides endless possibilities for gardening, entertaining, or simply unwinding in the fresh air.

16. 2026-04-27
    status Pending 735-char remark

    Show marketing remark (735 chars)

    This delightful Cape Cod home exudes warmth and character. Built in 1950, it offers a perfect blend of classic architecture and modern comfort. With 1,322 sq. ft. of thoughtfully designed living space, this 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom residence is ideal for those seeking a cozy retreat. Step inside to discover a welcoming interior that invites relaxation. The spacious layout features a rear entrance leading to a versatile basement, perfect for storage or a creative workspace. Enjoy the convenience of a detached garage with space for two vehicles, ensuring easy access and ample parking. Set on a generous 0.26-acre lot, the outdoor space provides endless possibilities for gardening, entertaining, or simply unwinding in the fresh air.

17. 2026-03-24
    listed $282,000 Active 735-char remark

    Show marketing remark (735 chars)

    This delightful Cape Cod home exudes warmth and character. Built in 1950, it offers a perfect blend of classic architecture and modern comfort. With 1,322 sq. ft. of thoughtfully designed living space, this 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom residence is ideal for those seeking a cozy retreat. Step inside to discover a welcoming interior that invites relaxation. The spacious layout features a rear entrance leading to a versatile basement, perfect for storage or a creative workspace. Enjoy the convenience of a detached garage with space for two vehicles, ensuring easy access and ample parking. Set on a generous 0.26-acre lot, the outdoor space provides endless possibilities for gardening, entertaining, or simply unwinding in the fresh air.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,435 · $120/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,312 · $193/mo
• Expected delta: +$878/yr (+$73/mo · 61.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,766
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,796
• − Property taxes: −$1,435
• − Insurance: −$1,410
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,901
• − Management: −$1,901
• − Depreciation: −$8,204
• Taxable loss: −$6,881
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,651
• After-tax cash flow: $-164/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Warren County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103870
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $61,504
• Composite: 49.22/100
• National rank: #2039
• State rank: #70 of 131 in VA

Livability — Front Royal

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #162
• US rank: #5050

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime C Employment D- Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Front Royal, VA
• County: Warren County · 35,615 people
• City population: 35,615
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 35,615
• Household income: $84,631
• Rent vs Own: 26.1% rent · 73.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 460.0

Population outlook (Warren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 42,045 people
• By 2030: 43,257 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 45,088 · +7.2%
• By 2050: 45,567 · +8.4%
• By 2075: 46,081 · +9.6%
• By 2100: 42,093 · +0.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 7% Black 6% Two or more races 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Warren

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.6% · R 68.3% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+35.3 2016: R+37.1 2012: R+20.5 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -118.82%
• Current HPI: 319.8136
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.30%
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-27 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-24 Listed $282,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,435 · +22.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.