Elton Plan · Hutto, TX 78634

$344,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,060 sqft · SingleFamily · 169 Days on market

Excellent condition 2-car garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.1/30.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This new single-level home is host to an inviting open floorplan with convenient access to a covered patio, ideal for seamless entertaining. Three secondary bedrooms are located off the foyer, and the luxurious owner's suite is tucked to the side of the home, complete with an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. A versatile flex space can be found off the main living area.

Key facts

• Pavilion
• Pool
• Local restaurants

Tags

• POOL
• PAVILION
• PICNIC AREAS
• PLAYGROUND
• WALKING TRAILS
• LOCAL RESTAURANTS

🏗️ New construction. The $344,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $348,991.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $345k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-651 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $255k (26.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $223k (35.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $223k (35.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#79 in TX, #2,794 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F.
• Hutto ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #438 of 826 in TX (top 53%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ray El (math 32% / reading 39%, grade F, #1,946 of 4,322 statewide, top 45%, 669 students, 47% FRL); Farley Middle (math 29% / reading 37%, grade F, #930 of 1,662 statewide, top 57%, 975 students, 44% FRL); Hutto H S (math 35% / reading 54%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 2,010 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools at 43% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.4%/yr); 1753 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 120d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 72% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 7,543 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (1,425 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Williamson County population projected at +69% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 169 days — a 12% lower offer ($304k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $222,919 (35.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 169 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.99%
• DSCR: 0.64
• GRM: 13.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $348,991
• List price: $344,999
• Delta: -1.14%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
101 Donnington Dr	0.67mi	4/2.0	2,071 (+0%)	6mo	$339,990	$164	63
507 Vantage Dr	0.58mi	4/2.0	1,938 (-6%)	4mo	$320,000	$165	59
400 Canley Loop	0.19mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,759 (-15%)	4mo	$299,000	$170	57
104 Donnington Dr	0.70mi	4/3.0	2,022 (-2%)	5mo	$338,990	$168	56
120 Donnington Dr	0.73mi	4/3.0	2,022 (-2%)	5mo	$340,990	$169	55
1003 Round Bale Rd	0.43mi	4/2.0	1,756 (-15%)	3mo	$319,900	$182	53
106 Donnington Dr	0.71mi	4/3.0	1,966 (-5%)	6mo	$329,990	$168	50
102 Donnington Dr	0.69mi	4/3.5	1,975 (-4%)	6mo	$337,990	$171	50
518 Windy Reed Rd	0.65mi	4/3.0	2,243 (+9%)	6mo	$379,000	$169	46
108 Donnington Dr	0.71mi	4/2.0	1,815 (-12%)	5mo	$324,999	$179	43
118 Donnington Dr	0.72mi	4/2.0	1,815 (-12%)	6mo	$315,990	$174	41
505 Vantage Dr	0.59mi	4/3.0	2,356 (+14%)	6mo	$371,490	$158	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -33.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.07×
• Total profit: $-104,496
• Equity at exit: $52,036

10-year hold

• IRR: -64.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.73×
• Total profit: $-169,472
• Equity at exit: $30,174

Cash invested: $97,718 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 85 active · 48 under contract
• Months of supply: 14.2 mo (7%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $350,999 ($164/sqft)
• Median days on market: 99 d
• This list price: 36% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +3.2% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78634

• Rents YoY: -2.4%
• Active inventory: 1753
• Price-to-rent: 12.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,229 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,830
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$436 /mo · $5,235/yr
• Insurance: −$145
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$468
• Net cashflow: $-651

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,053

Max offer price $254,829

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-410	-5% $-530	+0% $-651	+5% $-771	+10% $-892
Rent	-10% $-827	-5% $-739	+0% $-651	+5% $-563	+10% $-475
Rate	-1.0pp $-475	-0.5pp $-562	base $-651	+0.5pp $-741	+1.0pp $-833

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,248
• Closing costs: $10,470
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1007 Wolseley Cv Hutto, TX	4.0	3.0	2356	$2,295	$0.97	145d	1	0.04mi
118 Canley Loop Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1857	$1,950	$1.05	29d	1	0.07mi
1018 Ascari Ct Hutto, TX	4.0	2.5	2939	$2,795	$0.95	125d	1	0.08mi
204 Longbridge Dr Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1502	$1,950	$1.30	124d	1	0.12mi
136 Canley Loop Hutto, TX	3.0	2.5	1872	$2,050	$1.10	108d	1	0.12mi
140 Canley Loop Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1502	$1,950	$1.30	87d	1	0.13mi
112 Wolseley Dr Hutto, TX	4.0	2.0	1622	$1,995	$1.23	10d	1	0.14mi
216 Arnage Dr Hutto, TX	4.0	2.0	2100	$2,100	$1.00	132d	1	0.18mi
211 Coventry Dr Hutto, TX	4.0	2.0	1919	$2,050	$1.07	158d	1	0.20mi
207 Coventry Dr Hutto, TX	4.0	2.0	1622	$1,950	$1.20	184d	1	0.20mi
212 Canley Loop Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1461	$1,800	$1.23	69d	1	0.21mi
318 Canley Loop Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1430	$1,900	$1.33	145d	1	0.25mi
322 Canley Loop Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1481	$2,000	$1.35	6d	1	0.26mi
602 Water Way Ave Hutto, TX	4.0	2.0	1808	$2,100	$1.16	15d	1	0.27mi
607 Water Way Ave Hutto, TX	4.0	2.0	1830	$1,995	$1.09	138d	1	0.27mi
603 Water Way Ave Hutto, TX	4.0	3.0	2032	$2,150	$1.06	69d	1	0.28mi
623 Water Way Ave Hutto, TX	4.0	2.0	1815	$2,195	$1.21	10d	1	0.28mi
322 Arnage Dr Hutto, TX	4.0	2.0	1960	$2,050	$1.05	184d	1	0.29mi
100 Montego St Hutto, TX	4.0	3.0	2032	$2,250	$1.11	129d	1	0.31mi
102 Sebring Cir Hutto, TX	4.0	2.0	1670	$1,995	$1.19	120d	1	0.31mi
602 Arnage Dr Hutto, TX	4.0	3.0	1968	$2,300	$1.17	184d	1	0.34mi
525 Sebring Cir Hutto, TX	4.0	2.0	1938	$2,198	$1.13	87d	1	0.34mi
200 Sebring Cir Hutto, TX	5.0	3.0	2352	$2,900	$1.23	158d	1	0.35mi
102 Ostracoda Ln Hutto, TX	3.0	2.5	2474	$2,250	$0.91	145d	1	0.35mi
614 Milliner Loop Hutto, TX	4.0	2.0	1660	$2,199	$1.32	144d	1	0.36mi
411 Water Way Ave Hutto, TX	4.0	2.5	2385	$2,450	$1.03	158d	1	0.37mi
104 Bankside Dr Hutto, TX	4.0	3.0	2100	$2,250	$1.07	151d	1	0.39mi
302 Sebring Cir Hutto, TX	4.0	2.0	1670	$2,100	$1.26	10d	1	0.42mi
215 Magione St Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1662	$1,900	$1.14	3d	1	0.42mi
213 Magione St Hutto, TX	4.0	2.0	1982	$2,050	$1.03	37d	1	0.43mi
100 Milliner Loop Hutto, TX	4.0	3.5	2477	$2,350	$0.95	127d	1	0.46mi
100 Milliner Loop Hutto, TX	4.0	3.5	2477	$2,250	$0.91	10d	1	0.47mi
104 Milliner Loop Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1502	$1,950	$1.30	153d	1	0.47mi
431 Sebring Cir Hutto, TX	4.0	2.0	1662	$1,900	$1.14	37d	1	0.47mi
405 Osier Pass Hutto, TX	4.0	2.0	1688	$1,850	$1.10	10d	1	0.47mi
110 Grapefruit Rd Hutto, TX	4.0	2.5	2581	$2,275	$0.88	185d	1	0.50mi
120 Milliner Loop Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1502	$2,150	$1.43	120d	1	0.52mi
209 Golden Plains Pkwy Hutto, TX	4.0	3.0	2669	$2,350	$0.88	10d	1	0.52mi
101 Lancia St Hutto, TX	4.0	2.5	2577	$2,450	$0.95	87d	1	0.55mi
202 Grasslands Trl Hutto, TX	4.0	2.5	2782	$2,450	$0.88	10d	1	0.56mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $344,999

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage (2 parking spaces total)
• Home design: Single-family plan (Elton)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2,060

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan model home (Elton plan)Active new construction listing

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $344,999 Active 169 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $344,999 Active 168 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $344,999 Active 167 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $344,999 Active 166 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   pricedays on market $344,999 Active 165 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $342,999 Active 163 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $342,999 Active 162 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $342,999 Active 161 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $342,999 Active 160 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $342,999 Active 159 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $342,999 Active 158 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $342,999 Active 157 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $342,999 Active 156 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $342,999 Active 155 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $342,999 Active 154 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $342,999 Active 153 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $342,999 Active 152 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $342,999 Active 151 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $342,999 Active 150 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $342,999 Active 149 DOM
21. 2026-10-19
    price $342,999 Active 148 DOM
22. 2026-10-18
    days on market $349,999 Active 148 DOM
23. 2026-10-17
    days on market $349,999 Active 147 DOM
24. 2026-10-16
    days on market $349,999 Active 146 DOM
25. 2026-10-15
    days on market $349,999 Active 145 DOM
26. 2026-10-14
    days on market $349,999 Active 144 DOM
27. 2026-10-13
    days on market $349,999 Active 143 DOM
28. 2026-10-12
    days on market $349,999 Active 142 DOM
29. 2026-10-11
    days on market $349,999 Active 141 DOM
30. 2026-10-10
    days on market $349,999 Active 140 DOM
31. 2026-10-09
    days on market $349,999 Active 139 DOM
32. 2026-10-08
    days on market $349,999 Active 138 DOM
33. 2026-10-07
    days on market $349,999 Active 137 DOM
34. 2026-10-06
    days on market $349,999 Active 136 DOM
35. 2026-10-05
    days on market $349,999 Active 135 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $349,999 Active 134 DOM
37. 2026-10-03
    days on market $349,999 Active 133 DOM
38. 2026-10-02
    days on market $349,999 Active 132 DOM
39. 2026-10-01
    days on market $349,999 Active 131 DOM
40. 2026-09-30
    days on market $349,999 Active 130 DOM
41. 2026-09-29
    days on market $349,999 Active 129 DOM
42. 2026-09-28
    days on market $349,999 Active 128 DOM
43. 2026-09-27
    days on market $349,999 Active 127 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $349,999 Active 125 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $349,999 Active 124 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $349,999 Active 123 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $349,999 Active 122 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $349,999 Active 121 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $349,999 Active 120 DOM
50. 2026-09-19
    days on market $349,999 Active 119 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,750
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,549
• − Property taxes: −$5,235
• − Insurance: −$1,745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,140
• − Management: −$2,140
• − Depreciation: −$10,152
• Taxable loss: −$14,211
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,411
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,398/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It is move-in ready and offers a great value with potential for minor updates to enhance its curb appeal and interior aesthetics.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both New paint in interior walls — Enhances interior aesthetics and value ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 38/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Ray El F TX #1,946/4,322 Nat'l #22,764/41,679 Middle Farley Middle F TX #930/1,662 Nat'l #8,059/14,009 High Hutto H S F TX #652/1,632 Nat'l #6,890/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hutto ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824100
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $72,961
• Composite: 33.33/100
• National rank: #5501
• State rank: #438 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 77/100

Livability — Hutto

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #79
• US rank: #2794

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hutto, TX
• County: Williamson County · 699,027 people
• City population: 46,413
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 46,413
• Household income: $114,426
• Rent vs Own: 21.4% rent · 78.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 18% of renters

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Population outlook (Williamson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 699,027 people
• By 2030: 795,537 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 990,683 · +41.7%
• By 2050: 1,184,292 · +69.4%
• By 2075: 1,623,825 · +132.3%
• By 2100: 1,924,153 · +175.3%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 35% Two or more races 18% Black 9% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1%
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 23% Other Indo-European 2% Arabic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Williamson

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 50.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +10.6pp toward D · 2008: -13.0pp · 2024: -2.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.5 2020: D+1.4 2016: R+9.9 2012: R+21.5 2008: R+13.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -106.56%
• Current HPI: 194.2221
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.41%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $344,999

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage (2 parking spaces total)
• Home design: Single-family plan (Elton)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2,060

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan model home (Elton plan)Active new construction listing