1405 Bailey Ave · Macon-Bibb County, GA 31204

$44,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 631 Days on market

Built 1955 10,454 sqft lot $33/sqft · 21% below area Est $57k · 21% under ↓ 38% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

INVESTOR OPPORTUNITY! This property is located in a rapidly developing area, perfect for investors. Whether you're seeking a primary residence or a lucrative investment, this property offers great potential. Tenant-occupied and SOLD AS-IS. The seller will not make any repairs. For inquiries, please text Andreina Canache.

Key facts

• Lucrative investment
• Investor opportunity
• 0.24 acre lot

Tags

• RAPIDLY DEVELOPING AREA
• INVESTOR OPPORTUNITY
• LUCRATIVE INVESTMENT

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $44,900 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$56,838) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $45k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $673 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $45k).
• Recommended offer: $40k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 24.3% vs local median 5.4% in Macon-Bibb County — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Bibb County (urban): math 11% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #161 of 174 in GA (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.6%/yr); 255 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 154 units permitted in Bibb County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($39k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $310 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bibb County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.6% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 631 days — a 12% lower offer ($40k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (25%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 72% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $39,512 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 631 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.75% ✓
• Cap rate: 24.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 64.23%
• DSCR: 3.86
• GRM: 3.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $56,838
• List price: $44,900
• Delta: -21.00%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1485 Brentwood Ave	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,298 (-3%)	6mo	$125,000	$96	73
1055 Crescent Ave	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,402 (+4%)	2mo	$74,300	$53	65
3178 Napier Ave	0.54mi	3/1.5	1,294 (-4%)	5mo	$50,000	$39	62
1025 Mimosa Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,274 (-5%)	4mo	$97,000	$76	62
1347 Tonedale Ct	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,285 (-4%)	6mo	$134,000	$104	57
992 Inverness Ave	0.57mi	3/1.0	1,222 (-9%)	2mo	$49,000	$40	53
1142 Lamont St	0.65mi	3/1.0	1,436 (+7%)	4mo	$93,500	$65	51
3293 Arnwood Ave	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,497 (+11%)	4mo	$165,000	$110	51
1154 Bartlett St	0.36mi	3/1.0	1,537 (+14%)	6mo	$17,000	$11	50
1568 Burton Ave	0.54mi	3/1.0	1,192 (-11%)	3mo	$37,000	$31	50
1045 Mimosa Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,520 (+13%)	5mo	$174,000	$114	48
3386 Seaton Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,212 (-10%)	4mo	$148,000	$122	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.61% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 65.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.99×
• Total profit: $37,628
• Equity at exit: $6,695

10-year hold

• IRR: 70.0%
• Equity multiple: 8.69×
• Total profit: $96,626
• Equity at exit: $3,882

Cash invested: $12,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31204

• Rents YoY: 4.6%
• Active inventory: 255
• Price-to-rent: 3.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,235 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$235
• Tax from tax record: −$49 /mo · $583/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$259
• Net cashflow: $673

Break-even live

Break-even rent $383

Max offer price $44,900

Occupancy floor 41%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,225
• Closing costs: $1,347
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3096 Sharon Dr Macon, GA	2.0	1.0	1850	$1,050	$0.57	13d	1	0.15mi
1463 Bankston Ave Macon, GA	2.0	1.0	960	$950	$0.99	43d	1	0.19mi
3147 Westover Dr Macon, GA	4.0	2.0	1705	$1,475	$0.87	20d	1	0.33mi
1460 Brentwood Ave Macon, GA	3.0	2.0	1148	$1,250	$1.09	20d	1	0.39mi
1528 Wellworth Ave Macon, GA	3.0	1.0	1126	$1,000	$0.89	20d	1	0.43mi
1196 Mimosa Dr Macon, GA	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,300	$1.08	20d	1	0.46mi
2794 Napier Ave Macon, GA	3.0	2.0	1672	$1,175	$0.70	43d	1	0.48mi
1336 Winton Ave Macon, GA	3.0	2.0	1632	$1,350	$0.83	43d	1	0.48mi
1515 Burton Ave Macon, GA	3.0	1.0	1568	$1,250	$0.80	20d	1	0.52mi
919 Inverness Ave Macon, GA	3.0	2.0	1676	$1,549	$0.92	20d	1	0.58mi
1596 Burton Ave Macon, GA	3.0	1.0	1117	$895	$0.80	13d	1	0.59mi
2697 Napier Ave Macon, GA	4.0	1.0	1550	$895	$0.58	20d	1	0.63mi
1025 Hillyer Ave Macon, GA	3.0	2.0	1738	$1,800	$1.04	20d	1	0.65mi
1025 Hillyer Ave Macon, GA	4.0	2.0	1738	$1,800	$1.04	43d	1	0.65mi
728 Key St Macon, GA	4.0	1.5	1210	$1,200	$0.99	20d	1	0.66mi
1076 Carlisle Ave Macon, GA	3.0	1.0	1025	$1,065	$1.04	20d	1	0.67mi
1187 Edna Pl Unit S-1208 Macon, GA	2.0	2.0	1000	$850	$0.85	13d	1	0.77mi
1187 Edna Pl Unit S-0501 Macon, GA	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,000	$0.83	20d	1	0.77mi
1187 Edna Pl Unit S-1206 Macon, GA	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,060	$1.06	20d	1	0.77mi
1187 Edna Pl Unit S-0503 Macon, GA	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,125	$0.94	20d	1	0.77mi
1097 Edna Pl Macon, GA	2.0	1.0	1299	$1,300	$1.00	43d	1	0.85mi
3320 Guthrie Dr Macon, GA	4.0	2.0	1800	$1,500	$0.83	43d	1	0.87mi
1782 Eveline Ave Macon, GA	3.0	1.0	900	$1,050	$1.17	43d	1	0.91mi
3346 Shaw Dr Macon, GA	3.0	1.0	1094	$895	$0.82	20d	1	0.93mi
3713 Greenbriar Rd E Macon, GA	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,250	$0.78	43d	1	1.09mi
2755 Vineville Ave Unit B Macon, GA	3.0	2.0	900	$1,375	$1.53	43d	1	1.12mi
2154 Napier Ave Macon, GA	3.0	1.0	1344	$1,400	$1.04	20d	1	1.15mi
2445 Lowe St Macon, GA	2.0	1.0	940	$890	$0.95	43d	1	1.15mi
3588 Morgan Dr Macon, GA	4.0	1.0	1080	$1,200	$1.11	20d	1	1.16mi
185 Oak Haven Ave Apt A4 Macon, GA	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,200	$1.09	20d	1	1.26mi
3469 Kingsbury Dr Macon, GA	4.0	2.0	1100	$1,295	$1.18	43d	1	1.30mi
2350 English Ave Apt 3D Macon, GA	3.0	1.5	980	$1,095	$1.12	43d	1	1.31mi
3495 Charleston Cir Macon, GA	3.0	1.0	1048	$799	$0.76	20d	1	1.33mi
3495 Charleston Cir Macon, GA	3.0	1.0	1048	$875	$0.83	43d	1	1.33mi
1249 Duncan Ave Unit C Macon, GA	2.0	2.0	900	$795	$0.88	43d	1	1.34mi
3645 Mercer University Dr Macon, GA	1.0–2.0	1.0	874	$850	$0.97	43d	4	1.36mi
1575 Winston Dr Macon, GA	3.0	2.0	1215	$1,350	$1.11	20d	1	1.42mi
130 Calloway Dr Macon, GA	2.0	2.0	950	$950	$1.00	43d	1	1.42mi
201 Ridgewood Ave Macon, GA	3.0	1.5	1600	$1,200	$0.75	20d	1	1.46mi
1208 Fourth Ave W Macon, GA	3.0	1.0	960	$825	$0.86	43d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 35 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $44,900 Active 631 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $44,900 Active 630 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $44,900 Active 629 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $44,900 Active 628 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $44,900 Active 626 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $44,900 Active 625 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $44,900 Active 623 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $44,900 Active 622 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $44,900 Active 621 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $44,900 Active 620 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $44,900 Active 616 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $44,900 Active 615 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $44,900 Active 614 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $44,900 Active 613 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $44,900 Active 612 DOM
16. 2025-11-18
    price $44,900 322-char remark

    Show marketing remark (322 chars)

    INVESTOR OPPORTUNITY! This property is located in a rapidly developing area, perfect for investors. Whether you're seeking a primary residence or a lucrative investment, this property offers great potential. Tenant-occupied and SOLD AS-IS. The seller will not make any repairs. For inquiries, please text Andreina Canache.

17. 2025-11-18
    price $44,900

    Show marketing remark (322 chars)

    INVESTOR OPPORTUNITY! This property is located in a rapidly developing area, perfect for investors. Whether you're seeking a primary residence or a lucrative investment, this property offers great potential. Tenant-occupied and SOLD AS-IS. The seller will not make any repairs. For inquiries, please text Andreina Canache.

18. 2025-06-03
    price $49,900 322-char remark

    Show marketing remark (322 chars)

    INVESTOR OPPORTUNITY! This property is located in a rapidly developing area, perfect for investors. Whether you're seeking a primary residence or a lucrative investment, this property offers great potential. Tenant-occupied and SOLD AS-IS. The seller will not make any repairs. For inquiries, please text Andreina Canache.

19. 2025-06-03
    price $49,900

    Show marketing remark (322 chars)

    INVESTOR OPPORTUNITY! This property is located in a rapidly developing area, perfect for investors. Whether you're seeking a primary residence or a lucrative investment, this property offers great potential. Tenant-occupied and SOLD AS-IS. The seller will not make any repairs. For inquiries, please text Andreina Canache.

20. 2025-02-06
    price $54,900 322-char remark

    Show marketing remark (322 chars)

    INVESTOR OPPORTUNITY! This property is located in a rapidly developing area, perfect for investors. Whether you're seeking a primary residence or a lucrative investment, this property offers great potential. Tenant-occupied and SOLD AS-IS. The seller will not make any repairs. For inquiries, please text Andreina Canache.

21. 2025-02-06
    price $54,900

    Show marketing remark (322 chars)

    INVESTOR OPPORTUNITY! This property is located in a rapidly developing area, perfect for investors. Whether you're seeking a primary residence or a lucrative investment, this property offers great potential. Tenant-occupied and SOLD AS-IS. The seller will not make any repairs. For inquiries, please text Andreina Canache.

22. 2025-02-03
    status Active
23. 2024-10-28
    price $57,900 322-char remark

    Show marketing remark (322 chars)

    INVESTOR OPPORTUNITY! This property is located in a rapidly developing area, perfect for investors. Whether you're seeking a primary residence or a lucrative investment, this property offers great potential. Tenant-occupied and SOLD AS-IS. The seller will not make any repairs. For inquiries, please text Andreina Canache.

24. 2024-10-28
    price $57,900

    Show marketing remark (322 chars)

    INVESTOR OPPORTUNITY! This property is located in a rapidly developing area, perfect for investors. Whether you're seeking a primary residence or a lucrative investment, this property offers great potential. Tenant-occupied and SOLD AS-IS. The seller will not make any repairs. For inquiries, please text Andreina Canache.

25. 2024-09-25
    listed $59,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (322 chars)

    INVESTOR OPPORTUNITY! This property is located in a rapidly developing area, perfect for investors. Whether you're seeking a primary residence or a lucrative investment, this property offers great potential. Tenant-occupied and SOLD AS-IS. The seller will not make any repairs. For inquiries, please text Andreina Canache.

26. 2024-09-25
    listed $59,900 New 322-char remark

    Show marketing remark (322 chars)

    INVESTOR OPPORTUNITY! This property is located in a rapidly developing area, perfect for investors. Whether you're seeking a primary residence or a lucrative investment, this property offers great potential. Tenant-occupied and SOLD AS-IS. The seller will not make any repairs. For inquiries, please text Andreina Canache.

27. 2024-06-06
    historical
28. 2024-06-06
    historical
29. 2024-05-24
    price $64,900
30. 2024-05-24
    price $64,900
31. 2024-01-02
    listed $69,700 New
32. 2024-01-02
    listed $69,700 Active
33. 2019-07-17
    soldstatus $2,000,000
34. 2013-07-19
    soldstatus $450,000
35. 2003-10-27
    soldstatus $72,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $583 · $49/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $583 · $49/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 72% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,820
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,515
• − Property taxes: −$583
• − Insurance: −$224
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,186
• − Management: −$1,186
• − Depreciation: −$1,306
• Taxable income: $7,820
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,877
• After-tax cash flow: $6,198/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bibb County
• NCES district ID: 1300420
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $37,426
• Composite: 12.13/100
• National rank: #9654
• State rank: #161 of 174 in GA

Livability — Macon-Bibb County

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Macon-Bibb County, GA
• County: Bibb County · 164,332 people
• City population: 143,186
• Metro: Macon-Bibb County, GA
• Population (ZIP): 32,421
• Household income: $38,784
• Rent vs Own: 57.5% rent · 42.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 2674.0

Population outlook (Bibb County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 148,772 people
• By 2030: 145,904 · -1.9%
• By 2040: 139,404 · -6.3%
• By 2050: 131,603 · -11.5%
• By 2075: 111,050 · -25.4%
• By 2100: 83,346 · -44.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 65% White 28% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bibb

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+22.4) · D 61.0% · R 38.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.4pp toward D · 2008: 18.0pp · 2024: 22.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+22.4 2020: D+23.8 2016: D+20.2 2012: D+20.0 2008: D+18.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -135.44%
• Current HPI: 194.5459
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.61%
• Metro: Macon-Bibb County, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

-37.6% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-18 Price Changed $44,900 GAMLS
• 2025-11-18 Price Changed $44,900 FMLS
• 2025-06-03 Price Changed $49,900 GAMLS
• 2025-06-03 Price Changed $49,900 FMLS
• 2025-02-06 Price Changed $54,900 GAMLS
• 2025-02-06 Price Changed $54,900 FMLS
• 2025-02-03 Relisted — FMLS
• 2024-10-28 Price Changed $57,900 GAMLS
• 2024-10-28 Price Changed $57,900 FMLS
• 2024-09-25 Listed $59,900 GAMLS
• 2024-09-25 Listed $59,900 FMLS
• 2024-06-06 Listing Removed — FMLS
• 2024-06-06 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2024-05-24 Price Changed $64,900 GAMLS
• 2024-05-24 Price Changed $64,900 FMLS
• 2024-01-02 Listed $69,700 FMLS
• 2024-01-02 Listed $69,700 GAMLS
• 2019-07-17 Sold (Public Records) $2,000,000 Public Records
• 2013-07-19 Sold (Public Records) $450,000 Public Records
• 2003-10-27 Sold (Public Records) $72,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+11.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $583 · +7.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.