🏷️ Likely Rental
2776 California Ct · Lincoln, NE
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $473 – $860
Fire risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $1,161 – $2,155
Heat risk 3/10 · Minor
- Hot days now (above 104°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 16 days/yr
Wind risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- —
Air-quality risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Unhealthy air days now
- 0 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 0 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the C grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +23.0/30.0
- ARV discount +7.5/15.0
- DSCR +7.4/10.0
- 1% rule +6.8/10.0
- Schools +4.4/10.0
- Livability +4.2/5.0
- Rent growth +2.9/5.0
- Condition / age +2.5/5.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$79,000
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks
Single-family residence offering a straightforward layout and strong potential. Ideal for both owner-occupants and investors looking to add to their portfolio. Conveniently located with access to nearby amenities and major routes. This property is tenant occupied.
Key facts
- 2,614 sq ft lot
- Built 1920
- Listed 4 days
Property features AI
Exterior
- Parking: No garage
- Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
- Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; Built in 1920; One story (living area all above grade)
- Construction: Concrete perimeter foundation
- Exterior features: Up to 1/4 acre lot; Lot dimensions approximately 51 x 47; Lot included in price
Interior
- Bedrooms: Master bedroom on the main floor; Second bedroom on the main floor
- Bathrooms: One full bathroom (main floor)
- Heating & cooling: Natural gas forced-air heating; Central air conditioning
- Interior features: No fireplaces; Enclosed porch
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $79k.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $141 ($2k/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($934 rent vs $79k).
- Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 3.0% in Lincoln — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 85/100 on livability (#5 in NE, #545 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+.
- Lincoln Public Schools (urban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #59 of 111 in NE (top 53%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
- Zoned schools: Elliott Elementary School (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #346 of 502 statewide, top 74%, 370 students, 0% FRL); Lefler Middle School (math 46% / reading 45%, grade D+, #63 of 128 statewide, top 50%, 613 students, 61% FRL); Lincoln High School (math 38% / reading 41%, grade F, #184 of 261 statewide, top 76%, 2,196 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools at 40% FRL track the district average.
- Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 119 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,940 units permitted in Lancaster County in 2024 (895 in 5+ unit buildings).
- This rent is only 17% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $546 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Lancaster County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Negotiation context
- Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
- 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Risks & watch-outs
- Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Questions for the listing agent
- Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
- Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 1.18% ✓
- Cap rate
- 8.43%
- Cash-on-cash
- 7.64%
- DSCR
- 1.34
- GRM
- 7.0
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $173,367
- List price
- $79,000
- Delta
- -54.43%
- Verdict
- UNDERPRICED
- Comps
- 20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2776 California Ct | 0.00mi | 2/1.0 | 885 (0%) | 1mo | $80,000 | $90 | 99 |
| 3132 F St | 0.26mi | 2/1.0 | 904 (+2%) | 1mo | $215,000 | $238 | 83 |
| 900 Elmwood Ave | 0.36mi | 2/1.0 | 886 (+0%) | 4mo | $219,900 | $248 | 80 |
| 3244 C St | 0.42mi | 2/1.0 | 936 (+6%) | 6mo | $215,000 | $230 | 66 |
| 2520 Garfield St | 0.66mi | 2/1.0 | 864 (-2%) | 0mo | $100,000 | $116 | 65 |
| 1215 S 22nd St | 0.57mi | 3/1.0 (+1) | 864 (-2%) | 5mo | $72,000 | $83 | 60 |
| 901 S 24th St | 0.35mi | 1/1.0 (-1) | 981 (+11%) | 2mo | $128,000 | $130 | 59 |
| 1349 Chautauqua Ave | 0.51mi | 2/1.0 | 816 (-8%) | 6mo | $165,000 | $202 | 58 |
| 2839 Sumner St | 0.73mi | 2/1.0 | 845 (-4%) | 3mo | $200,000 | $237 | 56 |
| 3521 D St | 0.60mi | 2/1.0 | 948 (+7%) | 5mo | $195,000 | $206 | 56 |
| 850 S 36th St | 0.60mi | 2/1.5 | 1,008 (+14%) | 2mo | $226,000 | $224 | 45 |
| 3510 L St | 0.66mi | 2/2.0 | 1,017 (+15%) | 6mo | $219,000 | $215 | 35 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 1.78% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- -6.1%
- Equity multiple
- 0.78×
- Total profit
- $-4,919
- Equity at exit
- $11,779
- IRR
- 2.0%
- Equity multiple
- 1.13×
- Total profit
- $2,916
- Equity at exit
- $6,830
Cash invested: $22,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State Nebraska
- 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
ZIP-level market 68510
- Rents YoY
- 1.8%
- Active inventory
- 119
- Price-to-rent
- 7.0×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $934 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$414
- Tax from tax record
- −$150 /mo · $1,796/yr
- Insurance
- −$33
- HOA
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$196
- Net cashflow
- $141
Break-even live
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $186 | -5% $163 | +0% $141 | +5% $118 | +10% $96 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $67 | -5% $104 | +0% $141 | +5% $178 | +10% $215 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $181 | -0.5pp $161 | base $141 | +0.5pp $120 | +1.0pp $100 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $19,750
- Closing costs
- $2,370
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 40 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 861 S 29th St Unit 865 Lincoln, NE | 2.0 | 1.0 | 902 | $795 | $0.88 | 14d | 1 | 0.09mi |
| 636 S 27th St Apt 6 Lincoln, NE | 2.0 | 1.0 | 690 | $725 | $1.05 | 21d | 1 | 0.14mi |
| 2527 H St Lincoln, NE | 2.0 | 1.0 | 625 | $725 | $1.16 | 44d | 1 | 0.24mi |
| 2612 J St Unit 4 Lincoln, NE | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1050 | $1,235 | $1.18 | 14d | 1 | 0.24mi |
| 1001 S 26th St Lincoln, NE | 2.0 | 1.0 | 790 | $799 | $1.01 | 14d | 1 | 0.29mi |
| 2510 E St Unit 3 Lincoln, NE | 2.0 | 1.0 | 800 | $875 | $1.09 | 14d | 1 | 0.30mi |
| 526 S 25th St Unit 5 Lincoln, NE | 2.0 | 1.0 | 670 | $895 | $1.34 | 14d | 1 | 0.31mi |
| 2444 E St Lincoln, NE | 2.0 | 1.0 | 650 | $749 | $1.15 | 44d | 1 | 0.33mi |
| 2406 J St Unit G Lincoln, NE | 1.0 | 1.0 | 605 | $800 | $1.32 | 44d | 1 | 0.36mi |
| 1100 S 25th St Unit 3 Lincoln, NE | 1.0 | 1.0 | 553 | $825 | $1.49 | 44d | 1 | 0.37mi |
| 244 S 26th St Lincoln, NE | 1.0 | 1.0 | 550 | $600 | $1.09 | 14d | 1 | 0.41mi |
| 240 S 26th St Lincoln, NE | 2.0 | 1.0 | 820 | $875 | $1.07 | 14d | 1 | 0.42mi |
| 2501 N St Lincoln, NE | 1.0 | 1.0 | 625 | $720 | $1.15 | 21d | 1 | 0.48mi |
| 2501 N St Lincoln, NE | 1.0 | 1.0 | 576 | $720 | $1.25 | 44d | 1 | 0.48mi |
| 2423 B St Unit 1 Lincoln, NE | 2.0 | 1.0 | 705 | $845 | $1.20 | 44d | 1 | 0.53mi |
| 2209 D St Lincoln, NE | 1.0–2.0 | 1.0 | 760 | $914 | $1.20 | 14d | 3 | 0.53mi |
| 2110 J St Unit 3 Lincoln, NE | 1.0 | 1.0 | 560 | $695 | $1.24 | 44d | 1 | 0.56mi |
| 130 N 27th St Unit 2 Lincoln, NE | 2.0 | 1.0 | 735 | $950 | $1.29 | 14d | 1 | 0.57mi |
| 2335 B St Unit 5 Lincoln, NE | 2.0 | 1.0 | 920 | $875 | $0.95 | 21d | 1 | 0.57mi |
| 2701 P St Unit 1 Lincoln, NE | 2.0 | 1.0 | 864 | $1,050 | $1.22 | 21d | 1 | 0.59mi |
| 2040 F St Unit 7 Lincoln, NE | 1.0 | 1.0 | 570 | $695 | $1.22 | 14d | 1 | 0.59mi |
| 2044 E St Lincoln, NE | 1.0 | 1.0 | 575 | $695 | $1.21 | 21d | 1 | 0.61mi |
| 2800 P St Unit 5 Lincoln, NE | 2.0 | 1.0 | 941 | $995 | $1.06 | 14d | 1 | 0.61mi |
| 2144 B St Unit 3 Lincoln, NE | 1.0 | 1.0 | 700 | $700 | $1.00 | 21d | 1 | 0.64mi |
| 660 S 20th St Unit 1 Lincoln, NE | 2.0 | 1.0 | 710 | $825 | $1.16 | 44d | 1 | 0.64mi |
| 660 S 20th St Unit 2 Lincoln, NE | 2.0 | 1.0 | 710 | $825 | $1.16 | 21d | 1 | 0.64mi |
| 660 S 20th St Unit 5 Lincoln, NE | 2.0 | 1.0 | 710 | $825 | $1.16 | 14d | 1 | 0.64mi |
| 2015 J St Unit 2 Lincoln, NE | 1.0 | 1.0 | 604 | $745 | $1.23 | 21d | 1 | 0.64mi |
| 2015 J St Unit 7 Lincoln, NE | 1.0 | 1.0 | 604 | $775 | $1.28 | 21d | 1 | 0.64mi |
| 2904 Q St Unit 2906 Lincoln, NE | 3.0 | 1.5 | 1060 | $1,458 | $1.38 | 14d | 1 | 0.69mi |
| 1905 G St Unit 3 Lincoln, NE | 1.0 | 1.0 | 755 | $800 | $1.06 | 44d | 1 | 0.70mi |
| 1905 G St Unit 1 Lincoln, NE | 2.0 | 2.0 | 935 | $960 | $1.03 | 44d | 1 | 0.71mi |
| 1900 F St Unit B12 Lincoln, NE | 1.0 | 1.0 | 648 | $750 | $1.16 | 44d | 1 | 0.73mi |
| 1901 E St Apt 1 Lincoln, NE | 1.0 | 1.0 | 566 | $700 | $1.24 | 14d | 1 | 0.74mi |
| 1900 K St Lincoln, NE | 2.0 | 1.0–2.0 | 775 | $1,630 | $2.10 | 44d | 1 | 0.74mi |
| 2430 Q St Apt 8 Lincoln, NE | 2.0 | 1.0 | 780 | $1,095 | $1.40 | 44d | 1 | 0.76mi |
| 1820 F St Unit 7 Lincoln, NE | 1.0 | 1.0 | 616 | $725 | $1.18 | 14d | 1 | 0.77mi |
| 1820 F St Unit 4 Lincoln, NE | 1.0 | 1.0 | 616 | $725 | $1.18 | 44d | 1 | 0.77mi |
| 1821 G St Unit 4 Lincoln, NE | 1.0 | 1.0 | 625 | $735 | $1.18 | 44d | 1 | 0.77mi |
| 2800 R St Unit 2 Lincoln, NE | 2.0 | 2.0 | 973 | $945 | $0.97 | 14d | 1 | 0.78mi |
Listing history 10 events
-
2026-05-05status Pending 264-char remark
-
2026-05-01$79,000 New 264-char remark
-
2026-05-01historical
-
2026-04-12$99,000 New
-
2026-04-12historical
-
2026-03-05$112,000 New
-
2026-03-05historical
-
2026-01-20$122,000 New
-
2019-10-31soldstatus $350,000
-
2003-01-02soldstatus $59,000
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast NE · Resets to sale price
- Current annual tax
- $1,796 · $150/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $1,796 · $150/mo
- Expected delta
- $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 1/10 Low
- Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 2/10 Low
- Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $11,206
- − Mortgage interest
- −$4,425
- − Property taxes
- −$1,796
- − Insurance
- −$395
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$896
- − Management
- −$896
- − Depreciation
- −$2,298
- Taxable income
- $498
- Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
- −$120
- After-tax cash flow
- $1,570/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Lincoln Public Schools
- NCES district ID
- 3172840
- Math proficiency
- 50% ▼ -6.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 53% ▼ -3.00%
- Median HH income
- $50,273
- Composite
- 44.05/100
- National rank
- #2880
- State rank
- #59 of 111 in NE
Livability — Lincoln
- Score
- 85/100
- State rank
- #5
- US rank
- #545
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Lincoln, NE
- County
- Lancaster County · 291,509 people
- City population
- 291,509
- Metro
- Lincoln, NE
- Population (ZIP)
- 19,391
- Household income
- $65,951
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 622.0
Population outlook (Lancaster County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 352,806 people
- By 2030
- 377,899 · +7.1%
- By 2040
- 428,582 · +21.5%
- By 2050
- 483,103 · +36.9%
- By 2075
- 632,390 · +79.2%
- By 2100
- 759,513 · +115.3%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Predominantly White (82%)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 82% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Black 4% Asian 2%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 4%
- Common ancestry
- Arab 2% Romanian 2% Iranian 2%
- Foreign-born
- 6% · Canada, Vietnam
- Languages at home
- 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%
Political lean MEDSL · Lancaster
- 2024 margin
- Toss-up / Even · D 51.4% · R 47.1% · Other 1.5%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -0.7pp no change · 2008: 5.0pp · 2024: 4.3pp
- All cycles
- 2024: D+4.3 2020: D+7.8 2016: D+0.1 2012: R+1.0 2008: D+5.0
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -152.27%
- Current HPI
- 243.7469
- Rent YoY
- ▲ 1.78%
- Metro
- Lincoln, NE
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 0.68%
- F500 in state
- 2
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NE)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Conglomerate | 1 | $371B |
|
||
Price history
+39.8% since first listed12 events — show timeline
- 2026-06-04 Sold (Public Records) $82,489 Public Records
- 2026-05-27 Sold (MLS) $80,000 GPRMLS
- 2026-05-05 Pending — GPRMLS
- 2026-05-01 Listing Removed — GPRMLS
- 2026-05-01 Listed $79,000 GPRMLS
- 2026-04-12 Listing Removed — GPRMLS
- 2026-04-12 Listed $99,000 GPRMLS
- 2026-03-05 Listing Removed — GPRMLS
- 2026-03-05 Listed $112,000 GPRMLS
- 2026-01-20 Listed $122,000 GPRMLS
- 2019-10-31 Sold (Public Records) $350,000 Public Records
- 2003-01-02 Sold (Public Records) $59,000 Public Records
Property tax history
+2.6%/yrLatest (2025): $1,796 · +12.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…