20765 E Larry Ln · Cordes Lakes, AZ 86333

$185,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured public records · 176 Days on market

Built 1976 8,276 sqft lot Est $186k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.8/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.7/15.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Newly remodeled. New carpets, floor covering, plywood roof over exsisting with rolled roof on top. New window coverings, dishwasher, and gas range. Side by side refrig, washer and dryer almost new. 3 br.1 1/2 bath, split plan. Gazebo and fireplace in nice yard all fenced. Huge storage shed attached. 14x70 MH with expanded kitchen. Covered deck. HUD approved. Owner/broker may Carry with approved terms. Call office for more.

Key facts

• Custom kitchen
• Knotty pine floors
• Mature landscaping

Tags

• FULLY FENCED LOT
• MATURE LANDSCAPING
• CUSTOM KITCHEN
• KNOTTY PINE FLOORS
• HANDCRAFTED WOOD CABINETRY
• BREAKFAST BAR

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential; Property subtype: Manufactured Home; Lot is approximately 0.19 acres (county records); Topography: level with trees; rural setting; Zoning: R1-10; Road maintained by county; paved county road; Subdivision: Cordes Lakes; Directions: Stagecoach Trl to right on Red Rock, left on Larry Lane to home on right
• HOA & community: Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Two parking spaces total; Attached 2-car carport; Off-street RV/garage parking
• Utilities: Private water source; Septic (WWT - septic conventional); Electricity available; Propane available (including propane water heater; propane may be rented); Phone available
• Home design: Manufactured home (single wide); One story; Accessible approach with ramp and exterior handicap access
• Construction: Frame construction; Rolled/hot mop roof; Piers foundation; Double pane windows
• Exterior features: Covered and screened patio/porch; Dog run; Gravel driveway; Landscaped front yard; Landscaped rear yard; Back yard and perimeter fencing; Workshop (other structure)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas range
• Bedrooms: Single-level living (home lives on one level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: One half bathroom; One three-quarter bathroom; Two total bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating; Evaporative cooling
• Interior features: Bar; Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen/dining combo; Laminate counters; Tile counters; Washer/dryer connection; Workshop; Outside fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer connection

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $188 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $185k).
• Recommended offer: $163k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 5.1% in Cordes Lakes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#181 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Mayer Unified School District (4473) (rural): math 23% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #165 of 249 in AZ (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 242 active listings in the ZIP; 2,062 units permitted in Yavapai County in 2024 (98 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Yavapai County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $52k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 176 days — a 12% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $185k implies a 364% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 4→11/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $162,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 176 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.35%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $185,724
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16071 S Yavapai Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0	925 (+0%)	5mo	$52,000	$56	82
20570 E Larry Ln	0.21mi	3/2.0	967 (+5%)	12mo	$85,000	$88	70
20583 E Conestoga Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0	973 (+5%)	10mo	$225,000	$231	69
20715 E Larry Ln	0.06mi	2/1.5 (-1)	840 (-9%)	12mo	$130,000	$155	67
20659 E Sierra Dr	0.31mi	2/2.0 (-1)	930 (+1%)	17mo	$205,000	$220	64
16070 S Indian Bend Dr	0.44mi	2/2.0 (-1)	898 (-3%)	7mo	$150,000	$167	62
15339 S Rolling Ridge Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0	887 (-4%)	4mo	$150,000	$169	61
16062 S Indian Bend Dr	0.43mi	2/2.0 (-1)	925 (+0%)	14mo	$206,000	$223	61
16029 S Apache Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,061 (+15%)	11mo	$230,000	$217	55
16128 S Papago Dr	0.31mi	2/1.0 (-1)	785 (-15%)	4mo	$83,000	$106	50
15455 S Cholla Cir	0.50mi	3/2.0	981 (+6%)	17mo	$203,000	$207	50
20555 E Park View Ln	0.61mi	2/2.0 (-1)	840 (-9%)	5mo	$168,900	$201	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.18×
• Total profit: $112,740
• Equity at exit: $166,663

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.0%
• Equity multiple: 7.23×
• Total profit: $322,653
• Equity at exit: $359,414

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 86333

• Home prices YoY: 17.3%
• Active inventory: 242
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,856 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$231 /mo · $2,775/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$390
• Net cashflow: $188

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,618

Max offer price $185,000

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-04-29
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-03
   price $185,000
3. 2025-11-04
   listed $195,000 Active
4. 2011-06-03
   soldstatus $39,900
5. 2008-06-11
   soldstatus $59,900
6. 2008-06-10
   soldstatus $59,900 426-char remark

   Show marketing remark (426 chars)

   Newly remodeled. New carpets, floor covering, plywood roof over exsisting with rolled roof on top. New window coverings, dishwasher, and gas range. Side by side refrig, washer and dryer almost new. 3 br.1 1/2 bath, split plan. Gazebo and fireplace in nice yard all fenced. Huge storage shed attached. 14x70 MH with expanded kitchen. Covered deck. HUD approved. Owner/broker may Carry with approved terms. Call office for more.

7. 1999-07-13
   soldstatus $8,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 4 d/yr ≥102°F today · 11 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,272
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$2,775
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,782
• − Management: −$1,782
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable loss: −$737
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$177
• After-tax cash flow: $2,429/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mayer Unified School District (4473)
• NCES district ID: 0404820
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $35,108
• Composite: 20.22/100
• National rank: #8627
• State rank: #165 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Cordes Lakes

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #181
• US rank: #19144

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cordes Lakes, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 6,425

Population outlook (Yavapai County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 241,389 people
• By 2030: 249,523 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 259,966 · +7.7%
• By 2050: 264,736 · +9.7%
• By 2075: 269,334 · +11.6%
• By 2100: 256,505 · +6.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Two or more races 15% Hispanic / Latino 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Iranian 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Yavapai

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.9) · D 32.6% · R 66.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.5pp toward R · 2008: -24.4pp · 2024: -33.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.9 2020: R+29.3 2016: R+31.4 2012: R+30.7 2008: R+24.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 55.51%
• Current HPI: 376.0374
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+2212.5% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Pending — PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-03 Price Changed $185,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-04 Listed $195,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-06-03 Sold (Public Records) $39,900 Public Records
• 2008-06-11 Sold (Public Records) $59,900 Public Records
• 2008-06-10 Sold (MLS) $59,900 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1999-07-13 Sold (Public Records) $8,000 Public Records