86 Blue Jay Ln · Red Feather Lakes, CO 80545

$160,000

1 bd · None ba · 480 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 159 Days on market

Built 1956 Fair condition 0.50 ac lot $333/sqft · 12% below area Est $300k · 47% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.1/10.0
• Appreciation +4.7/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Embrace a simple mountain lifestyle with this rustic double-cabin retreat in Red Feather Lakes. Situated on a private half-acre lot, this property offers a functional basecamp for weekend adventures. The main cabin includes an eat-in kitchen, living room, family room, and one bedroom, while a separate guest ADU provides a second bedroom and kitchenette. The cabins are serviced by electricity and propane for heat, and the lot includes electric hookups for an RV. There is also a detached storage shed. Please note this is a "dry" cabin with no running water and an outhouse. The property is being sold As-Is, fully furnished, and Cash Only. If you are looking for an affordable, no-frills escape to the woods with the convenience of power, this is it. State of Colorado Water confirmed the ability to add a domestic use well.

Key facts

• Guest adu
• 0.5 acre lot
• 5 parking spots

Tags

• PRIVATE HALF-ACRE LOT
• GUEST ADU
• DETACHED STORAGE SHED
• ELECTRIC HOOKUPS FOR RV

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/?-bath single-family listed at $160k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $648 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $141k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.2% vs local median 4.0% in Red Feather Lakes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#344 in CO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment B+, housing B+; Watch: cost of living C-, crime D-, amenities F.
• Poudre School District R-1 (urban): math 45% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #10 of 86 in CO (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Cache La Poudre Elementary School (math 44% / reading 37%, grade F, #342 of 966 statewide, top 36%, 298 students, 32% FRL); Cache La Poudre Middle School (math 37% / reading 52%, grade D, #56 of 270 statewide, top 23%, 324 students, 28% FRL); Poudre High School (math 36% / reading 59%, grade D, #131 of 381 statewide, top 34%, 1,663 students, 38% FRL).
• Market conditions: 179 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,786 units permitted in Larimer County in 2024 (402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $215 of equity ($1k loan paydown + $-891 appreciation (-0.6% local appreciation)).
• Larimer County population projected at +51% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-0.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 159 days — a 12% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $29k; list at $160k implies a 454% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $140,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 159 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.36%
• DSCR: 1.77
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $299,901
• List price: $160,000
• Delta: -38.31%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 17 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
35 Stellar Jay Cir	0.11mi	1/—	391 (-18%)	4mo	$141,500	$362	67
35 Robin Path	0.98mi	2/— (+1)	480 (0%)	2mo	$150,000	$313	58
265 Onawa Rd	0.94mi	1/—	468 (-2%)	22mo	$167,000	$357	42
108 Buffalo Run Ln	0.65mi	1/1.0	435 (-9%)	16mo	$219,000	$503	41
73 Onawa Way	0.87mi	2/— (+1)	500 (+4%)	18mo	$100,000	$200	38
123 Nokomis Rd	0.63mi	1/1.0	572 (+19%)	13mo	$268,000	$469	35
69 Lakeview Dr	0.94mi	2/1.0 (+1)	564 (+18%)	14mo	$275,000	$488	23

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.56% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.72×
• Total profit: $32,434
• Equity at exit: $42,054

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.18×
• Total profit: $97,713
• Equity at exit: $47,157

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 38 Tenant-Leaning
• State Colorado: 38 Tenant-Leaning · D+4
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2023 reforms: 10-day cure, mandated notice, source-of-income protected. Courts backlogged in Denver.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 1 active · 1 under contract
• Months of supply: 3.0 mo (33%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $125,000 ($250/sqft)
• Median days on market: 974 d
• This list price: 100% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +149.9% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 80545

• Home prices YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 179
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,095 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$101 /mo · $1,211/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$440
• Net cashflow: $648

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,274

Max offer price $160,000

Occupancy floor 64%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $739	-5% $693	+0% $648	+5% $603	+10% $558
Rent	-10% $483	-5% $565	+0% $648	+5% $731	+10% $814
Rate	-1.0pp $729	-0.5pp $689	base $648	+0.5pp $607	+1.0pp $565

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Total 5 parking spaces4 off-street spaces1 RV space
• Utilities: Electricity connectedPhone availableHolding tank sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence (house)One storyAdditional living structure on siteProperty unattached
• Construction: Log construction
• Exterior features: Front porchPatioBarbecue areaPrivate yardMountainous, sloped lotDirt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: MicrowaveOvenRefrigeratorEat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the main levelADU bedroom on the main level with kitchenette and exterior access
• Flooring: CarpetLaminate (rolled laminate in kitchen area)
• Heating & cooling: Electric heatingPropane heatingRoom air conditioning
• Interior features: T&G (tongue-and-groove) ceilingsVaulted ceilingsFireplace (1)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   pricedays on market $160,000 Active 159 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $185,000 Active 158 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $185,000 Active 157 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $185,000 Active 156 DOM
5. 2026-09-18
   days on market $185,000 Active 154 DOM
6. 2026-09-17
   days on market $185,000 Active 153 DOM
7. 2026-09-16
   days on market $185,000 Active 152 DOM
8. 2026-09-15
   days on market $185,000 Active 151 DOM
9. 2026-09-14
   days on market $185,000 Active 150 DOM
10. 2026-09-13
    days on market $185,000 Active 149 DOM
11. 2026-09-12
    days on market $185,000 Active 148 DOM
12. 2026-09-11
    days on market $185,000 Active 147 DOM
13. 2026-09-05
    days on market $185,000 Active 141 DOM
14. 2026-09-04
    days on market $185,000 Active 140 DOM
15. 2026-09-03
    days on market $185,000 Active 139 DOM
16. 2026-08-31
    days on market $185,000 Active 136 DOM
17. 2026-08-30
    days on market $185,000 Active 135 DOM
18. 2026-08-29
    days on market $185,000 Active 134 DOM
19. 2026-08-28
    days on market $185,000 Active 133 DOM
20. 2026-08-27
    days on market $185,000 Active 132 DOM
21. 2026-08-25
    days on market $185,000 Active 130 DOM
22. 2026-08-24
    days on market $185,000 Active 129 DOM
23. 2026-08-23
    days on market $185,000 Active 128 DOM
24. 2026-08-22
    days on market $185,000 Active 127 DOM
25. 2026-08-21
    days on market $185,000 Active 126 DOM
26. 2026-08-20
    days on market $185,000 Active 125 DOM
27. 2026-08-19
    days on market $185,000 Active 124 DOM
28. 2026-08-18
    days on market $185,000 Active 123 DOM
29. 2026-08-17
    days on market $185,000 Active 122 DOM
30. 2026-08-16
    days on market $185,000 Active 121 DOM
31. 2026-08-15
    days on market $185,000 Active 120 DOM
32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $185,000 Active 119 DOM
33. 2026-08-13
    days on market $185,000 Active 118 DOM
34. 2026-08-12
    days on market $185,000 Active 117 DOM
35. 2026-08-11
    days on market $185,000 Active 116 DOM
36. 2026-08-10
    days on market $185,000 Active 115 DOM
37. 2026-08-09
    days on market $185,000 Active 114 DOM
38. 2026-08-08
    days on market $185,000 Active 113 DOM
39. 2026-08-07
    days on market $185,000 Active 112 DOM
40. 2026-08-06
    days on market $185,000 Active 111 DOM
41. 2026-08-05
    days on market $185,000 Active 110 DOM
42. 2026-08-04
    days on market $185,000 Active 109 DOM
43. 2026-08-03
    days on market $185,000 Active 108 DOM
44. 2026-07-31
    days on market $185,000 Active 105 DOM
45. 2026-07-29
    days on market $185,000 Active 103 DOM
46. 2026-07-27
    days on market $185,000 Active 101 DOM
47. 2026-07-25
    days on market $185,000 Active 99 DOM
48. 2026-07-24
    days on market $185,000 Active 98 DOM
49. 2026-07-23
    days on market $185,000 Active 97 DOM
50. 2026-07-22
    days on market $185,000 Active 96 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,211 · $101/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,211 · $101/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥81°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 23 unhealthy d/yr today · 26 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,137
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$1,211
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,011
• − Management: −$2,011
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable income: $5,487
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,317
• After-tax cash flow: $6,462/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab Est. rehab $12,000–$21,600 screening

This rustic double-cabin retreat in Red Feather Lakes requires extensive repairs and updates to its roof, exterior siding, fencing, flooring, interior walls, HVAC system, electrical system, and plumbing. These repairs and updates will significantly improve the home's appearance and increase its resale value.

Components & finishes AI

Roof metal · good

Deferred maintenance Est. $50,500–$152,000 screening

• Minor Roof (roof) — No visible signs of damage or wear on the roof.
• Major Windows (windows) — Windows appear old and may need replacement.
• Major Electrical (electrical) — Electrical panel appears old and may need upgrade.
• Major Plumbing (plumbing) — Plumbing fixtures appear old and may need replacement.
• Major Exterior (exterior) — Exterior siding appears worn and may need repair or replacement.
• Major Other — Other components like flooring and countertops appear old and may need replacement.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — The roof appears to be in poor condition and may need replacement.
• Major exterior siding — The exterior siding is weathered and shows signs of aging.
• Major fencing — The fencing is in poor condition and appears to be leaning.
• Major flooring — The flooring in the interior appears to be carpeted and in poor condition, with visible wear and tear.
• Major interior walls — The interior walls are in poor condition, with visible wear and tear and peeling paint.
• Major HVAC system — The HVAC system appears to be old and may need replacement.
• Major electrical system — The electrical system is not visible, but given the age of the property, it may also need updates.
• Major plumbing — The plumbing is not visible, but given the age of the property, it may also need updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale roof replacement — A new roof will significantly improve the home's appearance and increase its resale value. ↑
• Resale exterior siding repair and painting — A new exterior siding and paint job will improve the home's curb appeal and increase its resale value. ↑
• Resale fencing repair — A new, sturdy fence will improve the home's appearance and increase its resale value. ↑
• Resale flooring replacement — New flooring will improve the home's appearance and increase its resale value. ↑
• Resale interior wall repair and painting — New paint and repairs to the interior walls will improve the home's appearance and increase its resale value. ↑
• Resale HVAC system replacement — A new HVAC system will improve the home's comfort and increase its resale value. ↑
• Resale electrical and plumbing updates — Updates to the electrical and plumbing systems will improve the home's functionality and increase its resale value. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Moderate scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 44/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Cache La Poudre Elementary School F CO #342/966 Nat'l #19,178/41,679 Middle Cache La Poudre Middle School D CO #56/270 Nat'l #4,747/14,009 High Poudre High School D CO #131/381 Nat'l #6,282/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Poudre School District R-1
• NCES district ID: 0803990
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,281
• Composite: 45.5/100
• National rank: #2610
• State rank: #10 of 86 in CO

D Composite livability gradescore 55/100

Livability — Red Feather Lakes

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #344
• US rank: #23247

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime D- Employment B+ Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Red Feather Lakes, CO
• County: Larimer · 415,361 people
• Metro: Fort Collins-Loveland, CO
• Population (ZIP): 913
• Household income: $91,500
• Rent vs Own: 1.4% rent · 98.6% own

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Population outlook (Larimer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 415,361 people
• By 2030: 457,762 · +10.2%
• By 2040: 542,310 · +30.6%
• By 2050: 627,048 · +51.0%
• By 2075: 833,722 · +100.7%
• By 2100: 952,590 · +129.3%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Larimer

• 2024 margin: D (+17.6) · D 57.4% · R 39.8% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: 9.7pp · 2024: 17.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+17.6 2020: D+15.4 2016: D+4.9 2012: D+5.2 2008: D+9.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.56%
• Current HPI: 280.4591
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• F500 in state: 14

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology Distribution	1	$31B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$18B
▸Packaging	1	$14B
▸Healthcare	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$10B
▸Technology	1	$4B

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Total 5 parking spaces4 off-street spaces1 RV space
• Utilities: Electricity connectedPhone availableHolding tank sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence (house)One storyAdditional living structure on siteProperty unattached
• Construction: Log construction
• Exterior features: Front porchPatioBarbecue areaPrivate yardMountainous, sloped lotDirt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: MicrowaveOvenRefrigeratorEat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the main levelADU bedroom on the main level with kitchenette and exterior access
• Flooring: CarpetLaminate (rolled laminate in kitchen area)
• Heating & cooling: Electric heatingPropane heatingRoom air conditioning
• Interior features: T&G (tongue-and-groove) ceilingsVaulted ceilingsFireplace (1)

Price history

+695.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Listed $195,000 REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-17 Listed $195,000 IRES
• 1994-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $28,900 Public Records
• 1993-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $24,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,211 · +6.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.