31035 Gayle Prairie Oaks St · Waller, TX 77484

$262,040

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,412 sqft · Land · 63 Days on market

Built 2026 $186/sqft · at area comps Est $267k · at est. $63/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 22% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +8.4/15.0
• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Appreciation +2.9/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• Rent growth +1.6/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

You enter the home and are immediately welcomed into the open family room, kitchen, and dining area-designed for comfortable, connected living. Just off the family room, you'll find access to the two-car garage, a laundry room, and two secondary bedrooms that share a full bath. From the dining area, a covered patio offers space to relax outdoors. Also off the dining space is the primary bedroom, complete with a walk-in closet and a private primary bath.

Key facts

• Covered patio
• Large island
• Soft close cabinets

Tags

• OPEN LIVING DESIGN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• LARGE ISLAND
• SOFT CLOSE CABINETS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• COVERED PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $262k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-289 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $211k (19.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $173k (34.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $173k (34.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.0% in Waller — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,003 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Waller ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: I T Holleman El (math 33% / reading 31%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 688 students, 70% FRL); Waller J H (math 21% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,279 of 1,662 statewide, top 78%, 899 students, 69% FRL); Waller H S (math 25% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,639 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.8%/yr); 1196 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 12% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Recommended offer $172,685 (34.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.73%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 12.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $267,290
• List price: $262,040
• Delta: -1.96%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.10×
• Total profit: $-66,029
• Equity at exit: $39,071

10-year hold

• IRR: -39.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.38×
• Total profit: $-101,081
• Equity at exit: $22,656

Cash invested: $73,371 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77484

• Home prices YoY: -1.0%
• Rents YoY: -3.8%
• Active inventory: 1196
• Price-to-rent: 12.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,727 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,374
• Tax from tax record: −$107 /mo · $1,288/yr
• Insurance: −$109
• HOA: −$63
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$363
• Net cashflow: $-289

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,093

Max offer price $210,904

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-141	-5% $-215	+0% $-289	+5% $-364	+10% $-438
Rent	-10% $-426	-5% $-358	+0% $-289	+5% $-221	+10% $-153
Rate	-1.0pp $-158	-0.5pp $-223	base $-289	+0.5pp $-357	+1.0pp $-426

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,510
• Closing costs: $7,861
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $63 · $756/yr

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-15
   price $205,000 457-char remark

   Show marketing remark (457 chars)

   You enter the home and are immediately welcomed into the open family room, kitchen, and dining area-designed for comfortable, connected living. Just off the family room, you'll find access to the two-car garage, a laundry room, and two secondary bedrooms that share a full bath. From the dining area, a covered patio offers space to relax outdoors. Also off the dining space is the primary bedroom, complete with a walk-in closet and a private primary bath.

2. 2026-05-11
   price $205,000 905-char remark

   Show marketing remark (905 chars)

   BRAND NEW SINGLE STORY HOME WITH OPEN LIVING DESIGN Introducing the Odyssey floorplan, a well designed one story home offering 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and approximately 1,412 square feet of comfortable living space. The open layout connects the kitchen, dining, and living areas, creating an inviting flow for everyday living and entertaining, with luxury vinyl plank flooring extended into main living areas for added durability and style. The kitchen features granite countertops, a large island, and soft close cabinets and drawers, with stainless steel appliances included for added convenience. A covered patio extends outdoor living space, while the private primary suite includes a walk in closet and an en suite bathroom, and a fully fenced backyard completes this thoughtfully planned design in Williams Landing, which provides a comfortable setting designed for modern living and everyday ease.

3. 2026-05-08
   price $209,990 905-char remark

   Show marketing remark (457 chars)

   You enter the home and are immediately welcomed into the open family room, kitchen, and dining area-designed for comfortable, connected living. Just off the family room, you'll find access to the two-car garage, a laundry room, and two secondary bedrooms that share a full bath. From the dining area, a covered patio offers space to relax outdoors. Also off the dining space is the primary bedroom, complete with a walk-in closet and a private primary bath.

4. 2026-05-08
   price $214,990 457-char remark

   Show marketing remark (457 chars)

   You enter the home and are immediately welcomed into the open family room, kitchen, and dining area-designed for comfortable, connected living. Just off the family room, you'll find access to the two-car garage, a laundry room, and two secondary bedrooms that share a full bath. From the dining area, a covered patio offers space to relax outdoors. Also off the dining space is the primary bedroom, complete with a walk-in closet and a private primary bath.

5. 2026-05-04
   price $214,990 905-char remark

   Show marketing remark (905 chars)

   BRAND NEW SINGLE STORY HOME WITH OPEN LIVING DESIGN Introducing the Odyssey floorplan, a well designed one story home offering 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and approximately 1,412 square feet of comfortable living space. The open layout connects the kitchen, dining, and living areas, creating an inviting flow for everyday living and entertaining, with luxury vinyl plank flooring extended into main living areas for added durability and style. The kitchen features granite countertops, a large island, and soft close cabinets and drawers, with stainless steel appliances included for added convenience. A covered patio extends outdoor living space, while the private primary suite includes a walk in closet and an en suite bathroom, and a fully fenced backyard completes this thoughtfully planned design in Williams Landing, which provides a comfortable setting designed for modern living and everyday ease.

6. 2026-03-27
   listed $234,990 Active 457-char remark

   Show marketing remark (457 chars)

   You enter the home and are immediately welcomed into the open family room, kitchen, and dining area-designed for comfortable, connected living. Just off the family room, you'll find access to the two-car garage, a laundry room, and two secondary bedrooms that share a full bath. From the dining area, a covered patio offers space to relax outdoors. Also off the dining space is the primary bedroom, complete with a walk-in closet and a private primary bath.

7. 2026-03-26
   price $234,990 905-char remark

   Show marketing remark (905 chars)

   BRAND NEW SINGLE STORY HOME WITH OPEN LIVING DESIGN Introducing the Odyssey floorplan, a well designed one story home offering 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and approximately 1,412 square feet of comfortable living space. The open layout connects the kitchen, dining, and living areas, creating an inviting flow for everyday living and entertaining, with luxury vinyl plank flooring extended into main living areas for added durability and style. The kitchen features granite countertops, a large island, and soft close cabinets and drawers, with stainless steel appliances included for added convenience. A covered patio extends outdoor living space, while the private primary suite includes a walk in closet and an en suite bathroom, and a fully fenced backyard completes this thoughtfully planned design in Williams Landing, which provides a comfortable setting designed for modern living and everyday ease.

8. 2026-03-26
   price $229,990 905-char remark

   Show marketing remark (905 chars)

   BRAND NEW SINGLE STORY HOME WITH OPEN LIVING DESIGN Introducing the Odyssey floorplan, a well designed one story home offering 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and approximately 1,412 square feet of comfortable living space. The open layout connects the kitchen, dining, and living areas, creating an inviting flow for everyday living and entertaining, with luxury vinyl plank flooring extended into main living areas for added durability and style. The kitchen features granite countertops, a large island, and soft close cabinets and drawers, with stainless steel appliances included for added convenience. A covered patio extends outdoor living space, while the private primary suite includes a walk in closet and an en suite bathroom, and a fully fenced backyard completes this thoughtfully planned design in Williams Landing, which provides a comfortable setting designed for modern living and everyday ease.

9. 2026-03-24
   listed $262,040 Active 905-char remark

   Show marketing remark (905 chars)

   BRAND NEW SINGLE STORY HOME WITH OPEN LIVING DESIGN Introducing the Odyssey floorplan, a well designed one story home offering 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and approximately 1,412 square feet of comfortable living space. The open layout connects the kitchen, dining, and living areas, creating an inviting flow for everyday living and entertaining, with luxury vinyl plank flooring extended into main living areas for added durability and style. The kitchen features granite countertops, a large island, and soft close cabinets and drawers, with stainless steel appliances included for added convenience. A covered patio extends outdoor living space, while the private primary suite includes a walk in closet and an en suite bathroom, and a fully fenced backyard completes this thoughtfully planned design in Williams Landing, which provides a comfortable setting designed for modern living and everyday ease.

10. 2025-10-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,288 · $107/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,795 · $400/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,507/yr (+$292/mo · 272.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,722
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,678
• − Property taxes: −$1,288
• − Insurance: −$1,310
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,658
• − Management: −$1,658
• − HOA: −$756
• − Depreciation: −$7,623
• Taxable loss: −$8,249
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,980
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,494/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waller ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844430
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $58,911
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6593
• State rank: #532 of 826 in TX

Livability — Waller

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1003
• US rank: #17792

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D- Housing A- Health & safety C User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,348
• Household income: $81,250
• Rent vs Own: 26.4% rent · 73.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 270.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 24% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -4.17%
• Current HPI: 397.85
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.77%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-21.8% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $205,000 Zillow
• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $205,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $209,990 HARMLS
• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $214,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $214,990 HARMLS
• 2026-03-27 Listed $234,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $234,990 HARMLS
• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $229,990 HARMLS
• 2026-03-24 Listed $262,040 HARMLS
• 2025-10-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records