Lancia's Jordan Plan · Fort Wayne, IN 46818

$208,800

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,314 sqft · SingleFamily · 300 Days on market

Excellent condition $41/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.8/30.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Rent growth +4.4/5.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

THIS IS A SAMPLE PLAN - THIS IS NOT A HOME FOR SALE. Lancia's Jordan is a very open floorplan, with a cathedral ceiling in the Great Room that faces the Nook and Kitchen. Customize this home to fit your lifestyle by transforming the 3rd Bedroom into an Office or Bonus Room. A full or partial basement is available with additional base price cost due to staircase placement. * Base price does not include land

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Listed 300 days

🏗️ New construction. The $208,800 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $294,920.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $209k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-465 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $204k (2.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $184k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#6 in IN, #676 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime C-, schools D+, employment D+.
• Fort Wayne Community Schools (urban): math 22% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #263 of 301 in IN (top 87%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.6%/yr); 327 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,861 units permitted in Allen County in 2024 (576 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Allen County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 300 days — a 12% lower offer ($184k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $183,744 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 300 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.40%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.75%
• DSCR: 0.70
• GRM: 12.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $294,920
• List price: $208,800
• Delta: -29.20%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8446 Kenny Ct	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,415 (+8%)	3mo	$292,900	$207	83
4085 Shadowood Lakes Trl	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,415 (+8%)	4mo	$304,300	$215	76
8356 Colonial Lake Pass	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,415 (+8%)	5mo	$296,939	$210	74
8117 Carlie Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,386 (+6%)	8mo	$275,000	$198	72
4028 Ravens Cove Run	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,294 (-2%)	2mo	$252,500	$195	69
4141 Shadowood Lakes Trl	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,509 (+15%)	3mo	$319,900	$212	64
3924 Bradley Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,487 (+13%)	12mo	$280,000	$188	59
3827 Winter Raven Trl	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,408 (+7%)	10mo	$250,000	$178	55
4189 Bradley Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,495 (+14%)	12mo	$284,900	$191	55
7725 Payne Pkwy	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,392 (+6%)	12mo	$239,900	$172	52
3593 Beck Ct	0.38mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,501 (+14%)	3mo	$294,755	$196	51
4562 Indie Cv	0.42mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,501 (+14%)	12mo	$289,900	$193	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.64% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-67,331
• Equity at exit: $43,973

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-51,385
• Equity at exit: $25,499

Cash invested: $82,577 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 46818

• Rents YoY: 7.6%
• Active inventory: 327
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,044 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,547
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$369 /mo · $4,424/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$41
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$429
• Net cashflow: $-465

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,632

Max offer price $227,703

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-261	-5% $-363	+0% $-465	+5% $-566	+10% $-668
Rent	-10% $-626	-5% $-545	+0% $-465	+5% $-384	+10% $-303
Rate	-1.0pp $-316	-0.5pp $-390	base $-465	+0.5pp $-541	+1.0pp $-619

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,730
• Closing costs: $8,848
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3782 Thunderhawk Pass Fort Wayne, IN	3.0	2.0	1464	$2,095	$1.43	15d	5	0.49mi
13244 Etta DR Fort Wayne, IN	3.0	2.5	1330	$1,700	$1.28	45d	1	0.89mi
7211 Carrington Blvd Fort Wayne, IN	3.0	2.0	1568	$1,399	$0.89	15d	1	0.99mi
2316 Lima Ln Fort Wayne, IN	3.0	1.5	1160	$2,150	$1.85	15d	1	1.14mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $41 · $492/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $208,800 Active 300 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $208,800 Active 299 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $208,800 Active 298 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $208,800 Active 297 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $208,800 Active 295 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $208,800 Active 292 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $208,800 Active 291 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $208,800 Active 290 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $208,800 Active 289 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $208,800 Active 285 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $208,800 Active 284 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $204,100 Active 283 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $204,100 Active 282 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $204,100 Active 281 DOM
15. 2026-02-09
    price $204,100 409-char remark

    Show marketing remark (409 chars)

    THIS IS A SAMPLE PLAN - THIS IS NOT A HOME FOR SALE. Lancia's Jordan is a very open floorplan, with a cathedral ceiling in the Great Room that faces the Nook and Kitchen. Customize this home to fit your lifestyle by transforming the 3rd Bedroom into an Office or Bonus Room. A full or partial basement is available with additional base price cost due to staircase placement. * Base price does not include land

16. 2025-08-22
    listed $202,100 Active 409-char remark

    Show marketing remark (409 chars)

    THIS IS A SAMPLE PLAN - THIS IS NOT A HOME FOR SALE. Lancia's Jordan is a very open floorplan, with a cathedral ceiling in the Great Room that faces the Nook and Kitchen. Customize this home to fit your lifestyle by transforming the 3rd Bedroom into an Office or Bonus Room. A full or partial basement is available with additional base price cost due to staircase placement. * Base price does not include land

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,526
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,520
• − Property taxes: −$4,424
• − Insurance: −$1,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,962
• − Management: −$1,962
• − HOA: −$492
• − Depreciation: −$8,579
• Taxable loss: −$10,888
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,613
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,961/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with a modern floor plan and high-quality finishes. It is move-in ready and has the potential for further value-adding improvements to enhance its curb appeal and smart home features.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve both the resale and rental value.
• Both Add a small front porch or entryway — A welcoming entryway can increase both the resale and rental appeal.
• Both Install smart home features — Smart home features can increase both the resale and rental value by making the home more modern and convenient for potential buyers/tenants.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve both the resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Add a small front porch or entryway — A welcoming entryway can increase both the resale and rental appeal. ↑
• Both Install smart home features — Smart home features can increase both the resale and rental value by making the home more modern and convenient for potential buyers/tenants. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Wayne Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 1803630
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $41,951
• Composite: 21.68/100
• National rank: #8275
• State rank: #263 of 301 in IN

Livability — Fort Wayne

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #6
• US rank: #676

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Allen County · 326,813 people
• City population: 326,813
• Metro: Fort Wayne, IN
• Population (ZIP): 21,954
• Household income: $81,066
• Rent vs Own: 15.6% rent · 84.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 101.0

Population outlook (Allen County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 394,020 people
• By 2030: 405,128 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 423,476 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 435,137 · +10.4%
• By 2075: 450,293 · +14.3%
• By 2100: 424,101 · +7.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 7% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam, Philippines
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Allen

• 2024 margin: R (+12.5) · D 42.9% · R 55.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.1pp toward R · 2008: -4.3pp · 2024: -12.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+12.5 2020: R+11.2 2016: R+19.6 2012: R+16.8 2008: R+4.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -217.71%
• Current HPI: 228.1539
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.64%
• Metro: Fort Wayne, IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Price history

+1.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-09 Price Changed $204,100 Zillow
• 2025-08-22 Listed $202,100 Zillow