648 Lakeridge Dr · Spout Springs, NC 28326

$245,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,540 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 29 Days on market

Built 1994 Est $234k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.4/30.0
• ARV discount +5.4/15.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

1.5-story home a quiet neighborhood on a spacious lot. 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, offering ample space for comfortable living. The formal dining room is perfect for hosting gatherings and special occasions. With its inviting atmosphere and picturesque surroundings, this property is ideal for those seeking a peaceful retreat. The large lot provides plenty of outdoor space for relaxation and recreation. Don't miss the opportunity to make this house your home. New vanities in both bathrooms, new carpet and paint in living room and ceilings, garage has new paint as well. This is a court ordered sale with a 10 day upset bid period. Seller is Ryan J. Adams, as commissioner in Harnett County

Key facts

• Formal dining room
• New carpet
• Spacious lot

Tags

• QUIET NEIGHBORHOOD
• SPACIOUS LOT
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• OUTDOOR SPACE
• NEW VANITIES
• NEW CARPET

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport; 2 covered spaces; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank and holding tank
• Home design: Single family residence; One and one-half story; Aluminum and vinyl siding; RA-20 (Residential Agricultural) zoning
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Private yard; Back yard fencing; Cleared lot; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Microwave; Cooktop; Range; Exhaust fan; Water heater
• Bedrooms: Bedrooms with walk-in closets
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air; Ceiling fans; Electric heating; Heat pump
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Walk-in closets; Wood-burning fireplace in the den; Crawl space
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup in garage; Washer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $245k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $51 ($618/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $197k (19.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $197k (19.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.1% in Spout Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Harnett County Schools (rural): math 31% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #130 of 178 in NC (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Johnsonville Elementary (math 28% / reading 31%, grade F, #975 of 1,410 statewide, top 71%, 475 students, 99% FRL); Highland Middle (math 34% / reading 41%, grade F, #256 of 475 statewide, top 55%, 875 students, 64% FRL); Western Harnett High (math 57% / reading 58%, grade C, #245 of 535 statewide, top 46%, 1,386 students, 60% FRL) — zoned schools average 74% FRL vs 51% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 244 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 2,080 units permitted in Harnett County in 2024 (12 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harnett County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($241k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 64% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $196,907 (19.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.90%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $234,080
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
235 Lakeridge Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,738 (+13%)	5mo	$250,000	$144	64
366 Pineridge Dr	0.48mi	3/2.5	1,645 (+7%)	5mo	$275,000	$167	60
22 Woodridge Ln	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,746 (+13%)	12mo	$264,900	$152	54
234 Sunridge Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,770 (+15%)	10mo	$289,900	$164	49
56 Elijah Ct	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,355 (-12%)	15mo	$185,000	$137	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.95% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-36,608
• Equity at exit: $36,530

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-28,413
• Equity at exit: $21,183

Cash invested: $68,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28326

• Home prices YoY: -9.9%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 244
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,969 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax from tax record: −$117 /mo · $1,406/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$414
• Net cashflow: $51

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,904

Max offer price $245,000

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,250
• Closing costs: $7,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $245,000 Active 29 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $245,000 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $245,000 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $245,000 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $245,000 Active 24 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $245,000 Active 21 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $245,000 Active 20 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $245,000 Active 19 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $245,000 Active 18 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $245,000 Active 15 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $245,000 Active 14 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $245,000 Active 13 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $245,000 Active 12 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $245,000 Active 11 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $245,000 Active 10 DOM
16. 2026-05-20
    listed $245,000 Active
17. 2026-02-21
    status Active
18. 2026-01-22
    status Pending
19. 2025-11-08
    listed $245,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,406 · $117/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,009 · $167/mo
• Expected delta: +$603/yr (+$50/mo · 42.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 64% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,629
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,724
• − Property taxes: −$1,406
• − Insurance: −$1,225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,890
• − Management: −$1,890
• − Depreciation: −$7,127
• Taxable loss: −$3,634
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$872
• After-tax cash flow: $1,490/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harnett County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3702010
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $45,400
• Composite: 29.88/100
• National rank: #6397
• State rank: #130 of 178 in NC

Livability — Spout Springs

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Harnett County · 125,715 people
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• Population (ZIP): 26,068
• Household income: $75,431
• Rent vs Own: 34.5% rent · 65.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 456.0

Population outlook (Harnett County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 153,758 people
• By 2030: 166,581 · +8.3%
• By 2040: 192,741 · +25.4%
• By 2050: 218,332 · +42.0%
• By 2075: 275,422 · +79.1%
• By 2100: 313,511 · +103.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Black 27% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Harnett

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.1) · D 36.9% · R 62.0% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.4pp toward R · 2008: -16.7pp · 2024: -25.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.1 2020: R+22.4 2016: R+24.1 2012: R+19.4 2008: R+16.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -24.96%
• Current HPI: 226.8295
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.95%
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed $245,000 LPRMLS
• 2026-02-21 Relisted — LPRMLS
• 2026-01-22 Pending — LPRMLS
• 2025-11-08 Listed $245,000 LPRMLS

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,406 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.