1221 N Dysart Rd #35 · Avondale, AZ 85323

$40,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 800 sqft · Manufactured · 505 Days on market

Built 1984 Est $75k · 47% under ↓ 33% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Home, sweet home! This charming 2-bedroom mobile home welcomes you with an inviting front porch for enjoying morning coffee. Inside, you'll find an open layout with a soothing palette, blinds, and contemporary wood-look flooring. The kitchen comes with white cabinetry and built-in appliances for a seamless cooking experience. Both bedrooms are well-sized and provide a cozy space for relaxation. Outside, discover a shed in the backyard, offering extra storage space. Don't miss out on this one!

Key facts

• Built-in appliances
• Front porch
• Shed in backyard

Tags

• FRONT PORCH
• OPEN LAYOUT
• WHITE CABINETRY
• BUILT-IN APPLIANCES
• SHED IN BACKYARD

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Land lease community (monthly land lease $750); No association fees included; Community pool

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered parking spaces; 2 carport spaces
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured/Mobile home; Leasehold ownership
• Construction: Steel frame construction; Painted exterior; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Storage on property; Gravel/stone front; Synthetic grass front; East/West exposure

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave; Laminate counters; Electric range/oven; Refrigerator; Garbage disposal
• Bedrooms: Up to 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Window/wall cooling unit
• Interior features: High-speed internet available; No interior steps; Laminate counters; Storage
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $900 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $35k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 33.3% vs local median 3.4% in Avondale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#29 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, commute A; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D+, amenities F.
• Agua Fria Union High School District (4289) (suburban): math 24% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #99 of 249 in AZ (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lattie Coor (344 students, 84% FRL); Avondale Middle School (math 11% / reading 18%, grade F, #160 of 218 statewide, top 75%, 409 students, 78% FRL); Agua Fria High School (math 15% / reading 26%, grade F, #222 of 381 statewide, top 59%, 1,652 students, 62% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 18% at this address vs 30% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Agua Fria Union High School District (4289) average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 316 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $277 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.3% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 505 days — a 12% lower offer ($35k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $35,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 505 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.72% ✓
• Cap rate: 33.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 96.45%
• DSCR: 5.29
• GRM: 2.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $75,200
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1221 N Dysart Rd #37	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	800 (0%)	13mo	$75,000	$94	80

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.34% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 94.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.20×
• Total profit: $46,994
• Equity at exit: $5,964

10-year hold

• IRR: 96.6%
• Equity multiple: 9.90×
• Total profit: $99,734
• Equity at exit: $3,458

Cash invested: $11,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85323

• Home prices YoY: -27.1%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 316
• Price-to-rent: 2.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,489 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$210
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$50 /mo · $600/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$313
• Net cashflow: $900

Break-even live

Break-even rent $350

Max offer price $40,000

Occupancy floor 35%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $928	-5% $914	+0% $900	+5% $886	+10% $873
Rent	-10% $783	-5% $841	+0% $900	+5% $959	+10% $1,018
Rate	-1.0pp $920	-0.5pp $910	base $900	+0.5pp $890	+1.0pp $879

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,000
• Closing costs: $1,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1333 N Dysart Rd Avondale, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	626	$1,620	$2.59	0d	27	0.13mi
333 E Van Buren St Avondale, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	574	$1,365	$2.38	0d	13	0.50mi
1425 N Palo Verde Dr Goodyear, AZ	2.0	1.0	847	$1,250	$1.48	0d	4	0.52mi
526 N 4th St Unit B Avondale, AZ	2.0	1.0	858	$1,150	$1.34	0d	1	0.59mi
522 N 4th St Unit A Avondale, AZ	2.0	1.0	858	$1,150	$1.34	0d	1	0.61mi
103 E Brinker Dr Avondale, AZ	3.0	1.0	900	$1,150	$1.28	0d	3	0.73mi
12375 W Van Buren St Avondale, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1044	$1,811	$1.73	0d	47	0.74mi
312 E Kinderman Dr Unit 1 Avondale, AZ	2.0	1.0	717	$1,375	$1.92	21d	1	0.75mi
1701 N Palo Verde Dr Goodyear, AZ	2.0	1.0	760	$1,195	$1.57	0d	2	0.75mi
12721 W Buckeye Rd Avondale, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	983	$1,497	$1.52	0d	6	0.85mi
1408 N Central Ave Avondale, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	909	$1,465	$1.61	0d	15	0.87mi
1737 N Central Ave Goodyear, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1009	$1,544	$1.53	0d	15	0.89mi
207 S 3rd St Unit 11 Avondale, AZ	2.0	1.0	950	$1,000	$1.05	0d	1	0.99mi
1322 N La Jolla Blvd Goodyear, AZ	1.0	1.0	575	$1,170	$2.03	0d	4	1.01mi
12115 W Van Buren St Avondale, AZ	1.0	1.0	754	$1,155	$1.53	18d	1	1.04mi
12115 W Van Buren St Avondale, AZ	1.0	1.0	754	$1,195	$1.58	0d	1	1.04mi
12115 W Van Buren St Avondale, AZ	1.0	1.0	729	$1,263	$1.73	6d	1	1.04mi
231 S 1st St Unit 1 Avondale, AZ	2.0	1.0	1050	$1,600	$1.52	0d	1	1.09mi
13015 W Rancho Santa Fe Blvd Avondale, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	971	$1,494	$1.54	0d	18	1.12mi
620 N Litchfield Rd Goodyear, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	802	$1,532	$1.91	0d	15	1.20mi
102 S 4th Ave Avondale, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	853	$1,541	$1.81	0d	26	1.32mi
105 N Links Dr Avondale, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	930	$1,554	$1.67	0d	16	1.43mi
11850 W Fillmore St Avondale, AZ	3.0	1.0–2.0	838	$1,566	$1.87	0d	20	1.49mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $40,000 Active 505 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $40,000 Active 502 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $40,000 Active 501 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $40,000 Active 500 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $40,000 Active 499 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $40,000 Active 497 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $40,000 Active 496 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $40,000 Active 493 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $40,000 Active 492 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $40,000 Active 491 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $40,000 Active 488 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $40,000 Active 486 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $40,000 Active 485 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $40,000 Active 484 DOM
15. 2026-04-14
    price $40,000
16. 2025-11-21
    price $43,000
17. 2025-09-23
    price $45,000
18. 2025-08-18
    price $50,000
19. 2025-06-27
    price $57,000
20. 2025-02-01
    listed $60,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥113°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,873
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,241
• − Property taxes: −$600
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,430
• − Management: −$1,430
• − Depreciation: −$1,164
• Taxable income: $10,809
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,594
• After-tax cash flow: $8,209/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Agua Fria Union High School District (4289)
• NCES district ID: 0400450
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -32.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $64,107
• Composite: 27.92/100
• National rank: #6865
• State rank: #99 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Avondale

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #29
• US rank: #6100

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A Cost of living B- Crime D+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Avondale, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 86,122
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 47,043
• Household income: $83,120
• Rent vs Own: 40.6% rent · 59.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1506.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 60% Two or more races 26% White 22% Black 13% Asian 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 52% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Portuguese 1% Ukrainian 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 53% English-only · Spanish 42% Arabic 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -118.44%
• Current HPI: 319.3653
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.34%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-33.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $40,000 ARMLS
• 2025-11-21 Price Changed $43,000 ARMLS
• 2025-09-23 Price Changed $45,000 ARMLS
• 2025-08-18 Price Changed $50,000 ARMLS
• 2025-06-27 Price Changed $57,000 ARMLS
• 2025-02-01 Listed $60,000 ARMLS