96455 Blocks Shady Ln · Lakeside, OR 97449

$189,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 864 sqft · SingleFamily · 551 Days on market

Built 1964 Good condition 0.30 ac lot $220/sqft · 41% below area Est $319k · 41% under ↓ 36% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +5.5/10.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Two 432 Sq ft cabins both have 2bedrooms and one bathroom lakefront with your own dock. Bring your boat. road and lake access. Cabins were recently remodeled. Sold AS IS cash or private money loan

Key facts

• Lakefront with dock
• Recently remodeled
• 0.3 acre lot

Tags

• LAKEFRONT WITH DOCK
• RECENTLY REMODELED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $190k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $114 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $181k (4.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $167k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 3.7% in Lakeside — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#215 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, schools F.
• North Bend SD 13 (town): math 30% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #21 of 58 in OR (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 85 active listings in the ZIP; 122 units permitted in Coos County in 2024 (16 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (0.9% local appreciation)).
• Coos County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (0.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 551 days — a 12% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $109k (36%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $167,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 551 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
7. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
8. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.57%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $319,259
• List price: $189,900
• Delta: -40.52%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

0.92% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.19×
• Total profit: $10,102
• Equity at exit: $64,065

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.00×
• Total profit: $53,011
• Equity at exit: $84,550

Cash invested: $53,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97449

• Home prices YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 85
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,805 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$237 /mo · $2,848/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$379
• Net cashflow: $114

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,661

Max offer price $189,900

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,475
• Closing costs: $5,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $189,900 Active 551 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,900 Active 550 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,900 Active 549 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,900 Active 548 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,900 Active 547 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $189,900 Active 545 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $189,900 Active 544 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,900 Active 541 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $189,900 Active 540 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $189,900 Active 539 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $189,900 Active 536 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $189,900 Active 535 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $189,900 Active 534 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $189,900 Active 533 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,900 Active 532 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $189,900 Active 531 DOM
17. 2026-05-06
    status Active 196-char remark

    Show marketing remark (196 chars)

    Two 432 Sq ft cabins both have 2bedrooms and one bathroom lakefront with your own dock. Bring your boat. road and lake access. Cabins were recently remodeled. Sold AS IS cash or private money loan

18. 2026-04-22
    status Pending 196-char remark

    Show marketing remark (196 chars)

    Two 432 Sq ft cabins both have 2bedrooms and one bathroom lakefront with your own dock. Bring your boat. road and lake access. Cabins were recently remodeled. Sold AS IS cash or private money loan

19. 2026-04-03
    price $189,900 196-char remark

    Show marketing remark (196 chars)

    Two 432 Sq ft cabins both have 2bedrooms and one bathroom lakefront with your own dock. Bring your boat. road and lake access. Cabins were recently remodeled. Sold AS IS cash or private money loan

20. 2026-02-12
    price $199,000 196-char remark

    Show marketing remark (196 chars)

    Two 432 Sq ft cabins both have 2bedrooms and one bathroom lakefront with your own dock. Bring your boat. road and lake access. Cabins were recently remodeled. Sold AS IS cash or private money loan

21. 2026-01-17
    price $210,000 196-char remark

    Show marketing remark (196 chars)

    Two 432 Sq ft cabins both have 2bedrooms and one bathroom lakefront with your own dock. Bring your boat. road and lake access. Cabins were recently remodeled. Sold AS IS cash or private money loan

22. 2025-10-31
    status Active 196-char remark

    Show marketing remark (196 chars)

    Two 432 Sq ft cabins both have 2bedrooms and one bathroom lakefront with your own dock. Bring your boat. road and lake access. Cabins were recently remodeled. Sold AS IS cash or private money loan

23. 2025-07-09
    status Pending 196-char remark

    Show marketing remark (196 chars)

    Two 432 Sq ft cabins both have 2bedrooms and one bathroom lakefront with your own dock. Bring your boat. road and lake access. Cabins were recently remodeled. Sold AS IS cash or private money loan

24. 2025-07-01
    status Active 196-char remark

    Show marketing remark (196 chars)

    Two 432 Sq ft cabins both have 2bedrooms and one bathroom lakefront with your own dock. Bring your boat. road and lake access. Cabins were recently remodeled. Sold AS IS cash or private money loan

25. 2025-06-16
    status Pending 196-char remark

    Show marketing remark (196 chars)

    Two 432 Sq ft cabins both have 2bedrooms and one bathroom lakefront with your own dock. Bring your boat. road and lake access. Cabins were recently remodeled. Sold AS IS cash or private money loan

26. 2025-03-11
    price $229,000 196-char remark

    Show marketing remark (196 chars)

    Two 432 Sq ft cabins both have 2bedrooms and one bathroom lakefront with your own dock. Bring your boat. road and lake access. Cabins were recently remodeled. Sold AS IS cash or private money loan

27. 2024-09-19
    price $259,000 196-char remark

    Show marketing remark (196 chars)

    Two 432 Sq ft cabins both have 2bedrooms and one bathroom lakefront with your own dock. Bring your boat. road and lake access. Cabins were recently remodeled. Sold AS IS cash or private money loan

28. 2024-08-21
    price $279,000 196-char remark

    Show marketing remark (196 chars)

    Two 432 Sq ft cabins both have 2bedrooms and one bathroom lakefront with your own dock. Bring your boat. road and lake access. Cabins were recently remodeled. Sold AS IS cash or private money loan

29. 2024-07-24
    listed $299,000 Active 196-char remark

    Show marketing remark (196 chars)

    Two 432 Sq ft cabins both have 2bedrooms and one bathroom lakefront with your own dock. Bring your boat. road and lake access. Cabins were recently remodeled. Sold AS IS cash or private money loan

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥84°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,661
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,637
• − Property taxes: −$2,848
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,733
• − Management: −$1,733
• − Depreciation: −$5,524
• Taxable loss: −$1,764
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$423
• After-tax cash flow: $1,788/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This property features two recently remodeled cabins with new kitchens, bathrooms, and flooring, set in a serene lakeside location. The exterior and interior are in good condition, with fresh paint and new windows enhancing curb appeal and natural surroundings.

Value-add opportunities

• Both landscaping and curb appeal — enhances curb appeal and natural surroundings
• Both painting exterior — fresh paint can improve curb appeal and home value
• Both upgrading appliances — newer appliances can increase both resale and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both landscaping and curb appeal — enhances curb appeal and natural surroundings ↑
• Both painting exterior — fresh paint can improve curb appeal and home value ↑
• Both upgrading appliances — newer appliances can increase both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Bend SD 13
• NCES district ID: 4108820
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $43,614
• Composite: 32.57/100
• National rank: #5681
• State rank: #21 of 58 in OR

Livability — Lakeside

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #215
• US rank: #14610

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,200

Population outlook (Coos County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 62,222 people
• By 2030: 61,120 · -1.8%
• By 2040: 58,478 · -6.0%
• By 2050: 56,819 · -8.7%
• By 2075: 54,915 · -11.7%
• By 2100: 51,403 · -17.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 5% Native American 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Italian 4% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Coos

• 2024 margin: R (+19.9) · D 38.7% · R 58.5% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.8pp toward R · 2008: -3.1pp · 2024: -19.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.9 2020: R+20.5 2016: R+24.3 2012: R+6.3 2008: R+3.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.92%
• Current HPI: 190.1581
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

-36.5% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Relisted — RMLS
• 2026-04-22 Pending — RMLS
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $189,900 RMLS
• 2026-02-12 Price Changed $199,000 RMLS
• 2026-01-17 Price Changed $210,000 RMLS
• 2025-10-31 Relisted — RMLS
• 2025-07-09 Pending — RMLS
• 2025-07-01 Relisted — RMLS
• 2025-06-16 Pending — RMLS
• 2025-03-11 Price Changed $229,000 RMLS
• 2024-09-19 Price Changed $259,000 RMLS
• 2024-08-21 Price Changed $279,000 RMLS
• 2024-07-24 Listed $299,000 RMLS