23 Bellows Ter · Hampton Bays, NY 11946

$969,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,542 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 152 Days on market

Built 1975 1.07 ac lot $628/sqft · 11% below area Est $1083k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.2/30.0
• ARV discount +12.2/15.0
• DSCR +8.3/10.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Country Living , Not Far from Water, Over 1 Acre, 4 Bedrooms, 2 Baths, Garage, Wood Floors, 3 Season Room, Granite Kitchen, Basement, Transfer Switch w/ 200 Amp, Split System plus Individual A/C Wall Units, Spend your Summers out here or Live out Here All Year Round !

Key facts

• 3 season room
• Wood floors
• Over 1 acre

Tags

• OVER 1 ACRE
• WOOD FLOORS
• 3 SEASON ROOM
• GRANITE KITCHEN
• TRANSFER SWITCH W 200 AMP

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $969k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($26k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($11k rent vs $969k).
• Recommended offer: $853k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 6.4% in Hampton Bays — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#551 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, health & safety B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Hampton Bays Union Free School District (suburban): math 45% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #434 of 590 in NY (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+16.1%/yr); 172 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $10,646/mo this rent would consume 95% of the median local household income ($134k/yr) (locally 199% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $7k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $29k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $271k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 152 days — a 12% lower offer ($853k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $425k; list at $969k implies a 128% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $852,720 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 152 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.62%
• DSCR: 1.43
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,082,896
• List price: $969,000
• Delta: -10.52%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
27 Norwood Rd	0.37mi	4/2.0	1,468 (-5%)	17mo	$919,999	$627	61
3 Vine St	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,500 (-3%)	1mo	$785,000	$523	58
7 Homewood Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,591 (+3%)	20mo	$865,000	$544	57
58 Ocean Ave	0.63mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,600 (+4%)	4mo	$910,000	$569	56
8 Foxboro Rd	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,495 (-3%)	4mo	$951,000	$636	55
10 Rolling Hill Rd	0.37mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,400 (-9%)	13mo	$1,095,000	$782	52
17 Washington Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,500 (-3%)	14mo	$1,800,000	$1,200	48
89 Bellows Ter	0.61mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,620 (+5%)	12mo	$1,260,000	$778	46
58 Romana Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,671 (+8%)	19mo	$1,075,000	$643	40
14 Fairview Rd	0.58mi	4/3.0	1,763 (+14%)	6mo	$885,000	$502	40
53 Shore Rd	0.63mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,390 (-10%)	10mo	$774,000	$557	39
3 Chestnut Ln	0.75mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,323 (-14%)	16mo	$869,000	$657	24

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.14×
• Total profit: $37,708
• Equity at exit: $144,481

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.72×
• Total profit: $466,854
• Equity at exit: $83,781

Cash invested: $271,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11946

• Home prices YoY: -20.3%
• Rents YoY: 16.1%
• Active inventory: 172
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $10,646 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$5,082
• Tax from tax record: −$749 /mo · $8,986/yr
• Insurance: −$404
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,236
• Net cashflow: $2,176

Break-even live

Break-even rent $7,891

Max offer price $969,000

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $242,250
• Closing costs: $29,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
45 Bellows Ter Unit B Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	2.0	1722	$7,000	$4.07	43d	1	0.18mi
6 Rolling Hill Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	3.0	1697	$18,000	$10.61	1d	1	0.37mi
5 Hyler Dr Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	2000	$14,000	$7.00	18d	1	0.54mi
61 Atlantic Ave Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.5	2130	$25,000	$11.74	6d	1	0.61mi
58 Ocean Ave Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1600	$10,000	$6.25	43d	1	0.66mi
51 Ocean Ave Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1200	$5,000	$4.17	43d	1	0.72mi
35 Grant Blvd Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	3.0	1484	$35,000	$23.58	24d	1	0.81mi
15 Birchwood Ln East Quogue, NY	3.0	3.0	1635	$5,000	$3.06	43d	1	0.82mi
13 Beachland Ave East Quogue, NY	4.0	4.0	2028	$38,000	$18.74	21d	1	1.17mi
4 Bennett Dr East Quogue, NY	4.0	3.0	2144	$11,000	$5.13	5d	1	1.33mi
10 Skyes Neck Ct East Quogue, NY	4.0	3.0	2249	$80,000	$35.57	24d	1	1.35mi
35 Bay Ave W Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	3.0	2221	$15,000	$6.75	17d	1	1.36mi
71 Hampton Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.5	1500	$18,000	$12.00	24d	1	1.36mi
20 Marlin Rd East Quogue, NY	3.0	2.0	2000	$10,000	$5.00	43d	1	1.46mi
14 Canal Way Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	3.0	2000	$59,000	$29.50	24d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $969,000 Active 152 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $969,000 Active 151 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $969,000 Active 150 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $969,000 Active 149 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $969,000 Active 147 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $969,000 Active 146 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $969,000 Active 143 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $969,000 Active 142 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $969,000 Active 141 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $969,000 Active 138 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $969,000 Active 137 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $969,000 Active 136 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $969,000 Active 135 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $969,000 Active 134 DOM
15. 2026-04-23
    price $999,000 268-char remark

    Show marketing remark (268 chars)

    Country Living , Not Far from Water, Over 1 Acre, 4 Bedrooms, 2 Baths, Garage, Wood Floors, 3 Season Room, Granite Kitchen, Basement, Transfer Switch w/ 200 Amp, Split System plus Individual A/C Wall Units, Spend your Summers out here or Live out Here All Year Round !

16. 2026-04-16
    price $1,149,000 268-char remark

    Show marketing remark (268 chars)

    Country Living , Not Far from Water, Over 1 Acre, 4 Bedrooms, 2 Baths, Garage, Wood Floors, 3 Season Room, Granite Kitchen, Basement, Transfer Switch w/ 200 Amp, Split System plus Individual A/C Wall Units, Spend your Summers out here or Live out Here All Year Round !

17. 2026-03-25
    price $1,199,000 268-char remark

    Show marketing remark (268 chars)

    Country Living , Not Far from Water, Over 1 Acre, 4 Bedrooms, 2 Baths, Garage, Wood Floors, 3 Season Room, Granite Kitchen, Basement, Transfer Switch w/ 200 Amp, Split System plus Individual A/C Wall Units, Spend your Summers out here or Live out Here All Year Round !

18. 2026-01-14
    listed $1,249,000 Active 268-char remark

    Show marketing remark (268 chars)

    Country Living , Not Far from Water, Over 1 Acre, 4 Bedrooms, 2 Baths, Garage, Wood Floors, 3 Season Room, Granite Kitchen, Basement, Transfer Switch w/ 200 Amp, Split System plus Individual A/C Wall Units, Spend your Summers out here or Live out Here All Year Round !

19. 2003-08-13
    soldstatus $425,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $8,986 · $749/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $12,681 · $1,057/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,695/yr (+$308/mo · 41.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $127,748
• − Mortgage interest: −$54,279
• − Property taxes: −$8,986
• − Insurance: −$4,845
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$10,220
• − Management: −$10,220
• − Depreciation: −$28,189
• Taxable income: $11,010
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,642
• After-tax cash flow: $23,470/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hampton Bays Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3613530
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $70,274
• Composite: 40.18/100
• National rank: #3788
• State rank: #434 of 590 in NY

Livability — Hampton Bays

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #551
• US rank: #9894

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety B+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hampton Bays, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 15,819
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 15,819
• Household income: $133,918
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 199.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 13% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 29% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -118.82%
• Current HPI: 467.2466
• Rent YoY: ▲ 16.07%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+135.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $999,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $1,149,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $1,199,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-14 Listed $1,249,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-08-13 Sold (Public Records) $425,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2022): $8,986 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.