4629 Elgin Ave · Lubbock, TX 79413

$129,400

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,538 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 62 Days on market

Built 1953 7,488 sqft lot $84/sqft · 17% below area Est $155k · 17% under ↓ 30% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.1/30.0
• ARV discount +14.9/15.0
• DSCR +9.4/10.0
• 1% rule +7.7/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great investment opportunity! This is a large 4 bedroom 2 bath home that is located in central Lubbock. Lots of features that make this home a great addition to the investment portfolio. Vinyl plank throughout the home. Home is cooled and heated with mini splits. Currently rented till 7/31/2026 for 1400/month. Pictures are from before the tenants moved in.

Key facts

• Vinyl plank
• Central lubbock
• 7,488 sq ft lot

Tags

• INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY
• CENTRAL LUBBOCK
• VINYL PLANK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $129k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $367 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $129k).
• Recommended offer: $122k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, crime F.
• Lubbock ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #481 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 183 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 58% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $895 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($122k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $11k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $121,636 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.15%
• DSCR: 1.54
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $155,067
• List price: $129,400
• Delta: -16.55%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2619 44th St	0.33mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,460 (-5%)	13mo	$199,000	$136	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.94% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.02×
• Total profit: $717
• Equity at exit: $19,294

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.66×
• Total profit: $23,950
• Equity at exit: $11,188

Cash invested: $36,232 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79413

• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 183
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,641 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$679
• Tax from tax record: −$197 /mo · $2,359/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$345
• Net cashflow: $367

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,176

Max offer price $129,400

Occupancy floor 73%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,350
• Closing costs: $3,882
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3019 47th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,400	$1.08	21d	1	0.12mi
3105 44th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1348	$1,375	$1.02	21d	1	0.27mi
3019 42nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1053	$1,250	$1.19	21d	1	0.35mi
2611 44th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,395	$1.16	43d	1	0.37mi
2823 54th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1725	$1,825	$1.06	43d	1	0.43mi
3312 47th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1880	$1,795	$0.95	43d	1	0.47mi
2609 41st St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1469	$1,550	$1.06	21d	1	0.51mi
2703 54th St Lubbock, TX	5.0	2.0	2116	$2,000	$0.95	43d	1	0.53mi
3114 40th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1488	$1,375	$0.92	43d	1	0.54mi
3108 39th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1504	$1,295	$0.86	21d	1	0.58mi
2400 44th St Lubbock, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1015	$1,225	$1.21	13d	23	0.59mi
3415 49th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1410	$1,350	$0.96	43d	1	0.60mi
3417 47th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,550	$1.07	43d	1	0.62mi
3404 42nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1475	$1,500	$1.02	43d	1	0.65mi
2316 47th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1285	$1,400	$1.09	21d	1	0.66mi
2712 37th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1136	$1,300	$1.14	43d	1	0.70mi
2801 36th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1446	$2,700	$1.87	43d	1	0.72mi
2508 37th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.5	1495	$1,700	$1.14	43d	1	0.81mi
2506 37th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1053	$1,550	$1.47	21d	1	0.82mi
3408 38th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1927	$1,895	$0.98	43d	1	0.83mi
2403 38th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.5	1786	$1,700	$0.95	43d	1	0.84mi
3423 56th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	2224	$1,895	$0.85	43d	1	0.87mi
3612 44th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1675	$1,850	$1.10	43d	1	0.87mi
2821 61st St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1230	$1,100	$0.89	43d	1	0.88mi
2823 33rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1105	$950	$0.86	43d	1	0.90mi
3019 33rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.5	1573	$1,500	$0.95	13d	1	0.91mi
3101 33rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1250	$999	$0.80	43d	1	0.91mi
2107 48th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1956	$1,200	$0.61	43d	1	0.95mi
3712 47th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1767	$1,400	$0.79	21d	1	0.96mi
2601 33rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1894	$1,800	$0.95	21d	1	0.97mi
3007 32nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1353	$1,325	$0.98	21d	1	0.97mi
2817 63rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1125	$1,250	$1.11	21d	1	0.99mi
2121 56th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	2047	$1,999	$0.98	21d	1	0.99mi
2725 63rd St Unit FS Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1624	$1,599	$0.98	43d	1	1.01mi
2707 63rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1080	$1,050	$0.97	13d	1	1.03mi
3236 63rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.5	1818	$1,524	$0.84	13d	1	1.03mi
2217 36th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1284	$1,109	$0.86	13d	1	1.04mi
2215 36th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1578	$1,450	$0.92	43d	1	1.05mi
2614 31st St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1549	$1,650	$1.07	43d	1	1.11mi
2108 38th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1124	$900	$0.80	43d	1	1.13mi

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-05-19
   status Active 358-char remark

   Show marketing remark (358 chars)

   Great investment opportunity! This is a large 4 bedroom 2 bath home that is located in central Lubbock. Lots of features that make this home a great addition to the investment portfolio. Vinyl plank throughout the home. Home is cooled and heated with mini splits. Currently rented till 7/31/2026 for 1400/month. Pictures are from before the tenants moved in.

2. 2026-05-11
   status Pending 358-char remark

   Show marketing remark (358 chars)

   Great investment opportunity! This is a large 4 bedroom 2 bath home that is located in central Lubbock. Lots of features that make this home a great addition to the investment portfolio. Vinyl plank throughout the home. Home is cooled and heated with mini splits. Currently rented till 7/31/2026 for 1400/month. Pictures are from before the tenants moved in.

3. 2026-04-21
   price $129,400 358-char remark

   Show marketing remark (358 chars)

   Great investment opportunity! This is a large 4 bedroom 2 bath home that is located in central Lubbock. Lots of features that make this home a great addition to the investment portfolio. Vinyl plank throughout the home. Home is cooled and heated with mini splits. Currently rented till 7/31/2026 for 1400/month. Pictures are from before the tenants moved in.

4. 2026-03-27
   price $135,000 358-char remark

   Show marketing remark (358 chars)

   Great investment opportunity! This is a large 4 bedroom 2 bath home that is located in central Lubbock. Lots of features that make this home a great addition to the investment portfolio. Vinyl plank throughout the home. Home is cooled and heated with mini splits. Currently rented till 7/31/2026 for 1400/month. Pictures are from before the tenants moved in.

5. 2026-03-11
   listed $140,000 Active 358-char remark

   Show marketing remark (358 chars)

   Great investment opportunity! This is a large 4 bedroom 2 bath home that is located in central Lubbock. Lots of features that make this home a great addition to the investment portfolio. Vinyl plank throughout the home. Home is cooled and heated with mini splits. Currently rented till 7/31/2026 for 1400/month. Pictures are from before the tenants moved in.

6. 2026-01-18
   historical $1,600
7. 2025-11-05
   listed $1,600
8. 2025-09-01
   historical $1,400
9. 2025-07-18
   price $1,400
10. 2025-05-29
    price $136,000
11. 2025-05-03
    price $149,900
12. 2025-04-23
    listed $1,500
13. 2025-03-28
    price $155,000
14. 2025-03-27
    historical $1,500
15. 2024-12-06
    listed $1,500
16. 2024-11-13
    price $160,000
17. 2024-11-07
    historical $1,600
18. 2024-09-26
    price $1,600
19. 2024-08-08
    price $170,000
20. 2024-05-24
    price $1,800
21. 2024-03-30
    listed $2,000
22. 2022-07-18
    soldstatus Closed
23. 2022-07-15
    soldstatus
24. 2022-06-16
    status Pending
25. 2022-05-31
    listed $185,000 Active
26. 2022-02-18
    soldstatus
27. 2021-12-03
    soldstatus
28. 1985-03-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,359 · $197/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,368 · $197/mo
• Expected delta: +$9/yr (+$1/mo · 0.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,687
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,248
• − Property taxes: −$2,359
• − Insurance: −$647
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,575
• − Management: −$1,575
• − Depreciation: −$3,764
• Taxable income: $2,518
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$604
• After-tax cash flow: $3,799/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lubbock ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828500
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,820
• Composite: 31.44/100
• National rank: #5984
• State rank: #481 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 23,343
• Household income: $69,400
• Rent vs Own: 43.9% rent · 56.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1211.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 18% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -145.52%
• Current HPI: 239.8854
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.94%
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-30.1% since first listed

28 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Relisted — LARMLS
• 2026-05-11 Pending — LARMLS
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $129,400 LARMLS
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $135,000 LARMLS
• 2026-03-11 Listed $140,000 LARMLS
• 2026-01-18 Rental Removed $1,600 BUILDIUM
• 2025-11-05 Listed for Rent $1,600 BUILDIUM
• 2025-09-01 Rental Removed $1,400 LARMLS
• 2025-07-18 Price Changed $1,400 LARMLS
• 2025-05-29 Price Changed $136,000 LARMLS
• 2025-05-03 Price Changed $149,900 LARMLS
• 2025-04-23 Listed for Rent $1,500 LARMLS
• 2025-03-28 Price Changed $155,000 LARMLS
• 2025-03-27 Rental Removed $1,500 BUILDIUM
• 2024-12-06 Listed for Rent $1,500 BUILDIUM
• 2024-11-13 Price Changed $160,000 LARMLS
• 2024-11-07 Rental Removed $1,600 BUILDIUM
• 2024-09-26 Price Changed $1,600 BUILDIUM
• 2024-08-08 Price Changed $170,000 LARMLS
• 2024-05-24 Price Changed $1,800 BUILDIUM
• 2024-03-30 Listed for Rent $2,000 BUILDIUM
• 2022-07-18 Sold (MLS) — LARMLS
• 2022-07-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-06-16 Pending — LARMLS
• 2022-05-31 Listed $185,000 LARMLS
• 2022-02-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-12-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1985-03-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,359 · -5.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.