469 Beechwood Rd · Spurgeon, TN 37663

$179,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,404 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1952 8,712 sqft lot Est $278k · 35% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

First time on the market! Attention Investors! Opportunity awaits with this 3 bedroom, 1 bath home situated on a large lot just steps from Patrick Henry Lake. Features include a spacious living room, separate dining area, and plenty of potential for renovation. The layout and location provide a strong foundation for investors, flippers, or buyers looking to build sweat equity. Large 14x10 storage building in back. With vision and updates, this property could be transformed into a beautiful home. Conveniently located near I-81 and ideally positioned between Kingsport and Johnson City, offering easy access to shopping, dining, schools, and recreation. Property being sold as-is. Some of the in

Key facts

• Storage building
• Large lot
• 8,712 sq ft lot

Tags

• LARGE LOT
• STORAGE BUILDING
• STEPS FROM PATRICK HENRY LAKE
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED NEAR I-81

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Single-family house; One-story
• Construction: Brick and wood siding construction; Shingle roof; Built as a fixer property
• Exterior features: Level topography; Shed on property

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Floor furnace heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: Living room fireplace; Seven total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $333 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $178k (1.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $178k (1.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 3.2% in Spurgeon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#256 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Sullivan County (suburban): math 17% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #109 of 139 in TN (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Miller Perry Elementary (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #139 of 952 statewide, top 16%, 264 students, 0% FRL); Sullivan Heights Middle School (692 students, 0% FRL); West Ridge High School (1,683 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 45% district-wide (45 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 47% at this address vs 20% district-wide (+26 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Sullivan County average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 99 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 453 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sullivan County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $177,862 (1.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.93%
• DSCR: 1.35
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $277,992
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
278 Beechwood Rd	0.35mi	3/1.5	1,387 (-1%)	19mo	$204,900	$148	64
453 Beechwood Rd	0.03mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,228 (-12%)	10mo	$60,000	$49	62
5007 Lake Forest Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,274 (-9%)	12mo	$252,000	$198	57
5060 Lake Forest Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,388 (-1%)	12mo	$420,000	$303	55
5091 Lake Forest Dr	0.73mi	3/2.5	1,337 (-5%)	11mo	$334,000	$250	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-8,038
• Equity at exit: $26,824

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.40×
• Total profit: $19,972
• Equity at exit: $15,554

Cash invested: $50,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37663

• Home prices YoY: -26.1%
• Active inventory: 99
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,779 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax from tax record: −$54 /mo · $648/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$374
• Net cashflow: $333

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,357

Max offer price $179,900

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $435	-5% $384	+0% $333	+5% $282	+10% $231
Rent	-10% $192	-5% $262	+0% $333	+5% $403	+10% $473
Rate	-1.0pp $423	-0.5pp $378	base $333	+0.5pp $286	+1.0pp $239

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,975
• Closing costs: $5,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1433 E Shipley Ferry Rd Apt 3 Kingsport, TN	2.0	1.5	1000	$1,100	$1.10	14d	1	0.87mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $179,900 Active 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $179,900 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $179,900 Active 3 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $179,900 Active 2 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   remarks 699-char remark
6. 2026-06-15
   listed $179,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $648 · $54/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,277 · $106/mo
• Expected delta: +$629/yr (+$52/mo · 97.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,343
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,077
• − Property taxes: −$648
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,707
• − Management: −$1,707
• − Depreciation: −$5,233
• Taxable income: $1,070
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$257
• After-tax cash flow: $3,736/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sullivan County
• NCES district ID: 4703990
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $43,263
• Composite: 17.66/100
• National rank: #9030
• State rank: #109 of 139 in TN

Livability — Spurgeon

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #256
• US rank: #18195

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Sullivan County · 121,987 people
• Metro: Kingsport-Bristol, TN-VA
• Population (ZIP): 14,230
• Household income: $76,007
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 173.0

Population outlook (Sullivan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 157,030 people
• By 2030: 156,415 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 153,778 · -2.1%
• By 2050: 149,018 · -5.1%
• By 2075: 138,068 · -12.1%
• By 2100: 119,927 · -23.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 3% Asian 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 5% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Other Indo-European 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sullivan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.0) · D 22.0% · R 77.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.6pp toward R · 2008: -41.3pp · 2024: -55.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.0 2020: R+51.9 2016: R+56.2 2012: R+47.2 2008: R+41.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -90.38%
• Current HPI: 255.7206
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Kingsport-Bristol, TN-VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-14 Listed $179,900 TVRMLS

Property tax history

+6.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $648 · +36.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.