5379 Old Redwood Hwy #14 · Larkfield-Wikiup, CA 95403

$150,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 784 sqft · Manufactured · 122 Days on market

Built 1998 Est $120k · 25% over ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath manufactured home located in an all-age park in beautiful Santa Rosa. Offering comfort, affordability, and convenience, this cozy home is the perfect opportunity for a first-time homebuyer or anyone looking to enjoy Wine Country living at an accessible price point. Inside, you'll find a functional layout filled with natural light, creating a warm and inviting space that's ideal for starting your homeownership journey or downsizing with ease. With low space rent close proximity to everyday conveniences like Sutter Hospital, Airport Stadium 12 Cinema, Charles M. Schulz-Sonoma County Airport, and great local coffee spots. This is a fantastic opportuni

Key facts

• Low space rent
• Manufactured home
• Natural light

Tags

• MANUFACTURED HOME
• NATURAL LIGHT
• LOW SPACE RENT

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Monthly land lease: $885
• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned parking for 2 vehicles
• Utilities: Individual gas meter; Internet available; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured in-park home; Single wide
• Construction: Manufactured by Fleetwood Homes CA INC (Westfield model); Wood skirting
• Exterior features: Located in Orchard Mobile Home Park; Individual gas meter; Internet available; Public sewer

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom with tub
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central cooling
• Interior features: Laundry area includes washer and dryer (included)
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer provided

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $132k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.2% vs local median 2.1% in Larkfield-Wikiup — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Santa Rosa High (urban): math 31% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #703 of 1,400 in CA (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 199 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,039 units permitted in Sonoma County in 2024 (185 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($98k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sonoma County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.1% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 122 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $132,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 122 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.68% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.78%
• DSCR: 2.41
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $119,952
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5481 Ranchito Way	0.22mi	2/1.0	784 (0%)	7mo	$72,500	$92	84
5501 Ranchito Way	0.23mi	2/2.0	840 (+7%)	2mo	$130,000	$155	72
5342 Rexford Way	0.05mi	2/2.0	720 (-8%)	11mo	$149,999	$208	71
5341 Huckleberry Way	0.04mi	2/2.0	880 (+12%)	11mo	$180,000	$205	64
546 Colonial Park Dr	0.67mi	2/1.0	800 (+2%)	4mo	$120,000	$150	62
504 Colonial Park Dr	0.71mi	2/1.0	800 (+2%)	5mo	$95,000	$119	59
623 Colonial Park Dr	0.60mi	2/1.0	800 (+2%)	13mo	$98,000	$123	58
445 Colonial Park Dr	0.74mi	2/1.0	800 (+2%)	8mo	$90,000	$113	55
5212 Whispering Creek Dr	0.60mi	2/2.0	800 (+2%)	13mo	$197,000	$246	54
70 Colonial Park Dr	0.55mi	2/1.5	750 (-4%)	18mo	$115,000	$153	50
23 Ellie Dr	0.74mi	2/2.0	840 (+7%)	6mo	$122,700	$146	44
48 Colonial Park Dr	0.53mi	1/1.0 (-1)	700 (-11%)	11mo	$114,000	$163	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.94×
• Total profit: $39,324
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.32×
• Total profit: $97,512
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95403

• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 199
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,525 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$34 /mo · $402/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$530
• Net cashflow: $1,112

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,117

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 51%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
193 Airport Blvd E Santa Rosa, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	967	$2,760	$2.85	12d	1	0.25mi
5222 Fulton Rd Unit 12 Santa Rosa, CA	1.0	1.0	620	$1,950	$3.15	13d	1	0.26mi
5256 Old Redwood Hwy Unit 31 Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	2.0	950	$2,200	$2.32	13d	1	0.32mi
5252 Old Redwood Hwy Unit 20 Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$2,000	$2.22	13d	1	0.33mi
5223 Old Redwood Hwy Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	1.0	915	$3,200	$3.50	12d	1	0.46mi
5209 Old Redwood Hwy Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	2.0	1014	$2,450	$2.42	21d	1	0.51mi
211 Shiloh Rd Windsor, CA	2.0	1.0	814	$3,095	$3.80	13d	1	1.28mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $150,000 Active 122 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $150,000 Active 121 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $150,000 Active 120 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $150,000 Active 119 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $150,000 Active 117 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $150,000 Active 116 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $150,000 Active 114 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $150,000 Active 113 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $150,000 Active 112 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $150,000 Active 111 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $150,000 Active 107 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $150,000 Active 106 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $150,000 Active 105 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $150,000 Active 104 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $150,000 Active 103 DOM
16. 2026-03-25
    price $150,000
17. 2026-02-16
    listed $160,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $402 · $34/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,140 · $95/mo
• Expected delta: +$738/yr (+$61/mo · 183.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 2/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 3% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 18 unhealthy d/yr today · 20 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,304
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$402
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,424
• − Management: −$2,424
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $11,537
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,769
• After-tax cash flow: $10,580/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Rosa High
• NCES district ID: 0635830
• Math proficiency: 31% —
• Reading proficiency: 47% —
• Median HH income: $62,000
• Composite: 37.25/100
• National rank: #8972
• State rank: #703 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Larkfield-Wikiup

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Larkfield-Wikiup, CA
• County: Sonoma County · 449,805 people
• City population: 45,570
• Metro: Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA
• Population (ZIP): 45,806
• Household income: $98,191
• Rent vs Own: 45.2% rent · 54.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1770.0

Population outlook (Sonoma County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 539,935 people
• By 2030: 554,870 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 573,262 · +6.2%
• By 2050: 580,715 · +7.6%
• By 2075: 579,229 · +7.3%
• By 2100: 547,835 · +1.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 37% Two or more races 13% Asian 5% Native American 2% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 26% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sonoma

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+46.2) · D 71.4% · R 25.2% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.4pp toward R · 2008: 49.6pp · 2024: 46.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+46.2 2020: D+51.5 2016: D+47.9 2012: D+44.9 2008: D+49.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -679.94%
• Current HPI: 254.3106
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.10%
• Metro: Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-6.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $150,000 BAREIS
• 2026-02-16 Listed $160,000 BAREIS

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $402 · -0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.