3451 22nd St · San Francisco, CA 94110

$1,600,000

3 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,140 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 394 Days on market

Built 1924 1,855 sqft lot $510/sqft · 29% below area Est $2250k · 29% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (5+ Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

5+ unit building — per-unit beds/baths from public records are typically unavailable; the breakdown below (if shown) is an estimate from the listing text.

Listing remarks MLS

Three 1 bed apartments, an on site manager’s office, a garage, and laundromat — all just steps from iconic Dolores Park. Prime location, strong cash flow, and rare investment upside in the heart of San Francisco. Dolores Park is a vibrant and iconic green space in San Francisco’s Mission District, known for its sunny weather, scenic city views, and lively community atmosphere. Popular for picnics, people-watching, and weekend gatherings, it offers a perfect blend of natural beauty and urban energy.

Key facts

• Scenic city views
• Investment upside
• Laundromat

Tags

• ON SITE MANAGER OFFICE
• LAUNDROMAT
• PRIME LOCATION
• INVESTMENT UPSIDE
• VIBRANT GREEN SPACE
• SCENIC CITY VIEWS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/4.0-bath multifamily listed at $1.60M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($20k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.41M (11.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $1.41M (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 2.1% in San Francisco — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in CA, #3,143 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• San Francisco Unified (urban): math 50% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #322 of 1,400 in CA (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+14.5%/yr); 161 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 750 units permitted in San Francisco County in 2024 (688 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $14,102/mo this rent would consume 107% of the median local household income ($158k/yr) (locally 2732% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $11k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $48k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Francisco County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $448k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 394 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.41M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $875k; list at $1.60M implies a 83% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1924 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $1,408,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 394 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1924 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.47%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $2,250,165
• List price: $1,600,000
• Delta: -28.89%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3465 22nd St	0.01mi	4/4.0 (+1)	3,128 (-0%)	8mo	$2,305,000	$737	87
3430-3432 21st St	0.14mi	3/—	3,200 (+2%)	6mo	$1,675,050	$523	85
3530-3532 22nd St	0.10mi	4/2.0 (+1)	3,225 (+3%)	3mo	$2,700,000	$837	76
41-43 Alvarado St	0.13mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,952 (-6%)	1mo	$2,850,000	$965	70
72-74 Cumberland St	0.30mi	4/2.0 (+1)	3,110 (-1%)	7mo	$2,280,000	$733	65
3864 Cesar Chavez St	0.49mi	4/4.0 (+1)	3,250 (+4%)	3mo	$1,725,000	$531	64
2977-2979 21st St	0.59mi	4/3.0 (+1)	3,000 (-4%)	1mo	$2,300,000	$767	55
48 Sycamore St	0.58mi	4/4.0 (+1)	2,950 (-6%)	7mo	$1,703,000	$577	52
1191 Guerrero St	0.22mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,680 (-15%)	2mo	$1,850,000	$690	51
647-649 Capp St	0.39mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,710 (-14%)	0mo	$1,128,000	$416	50
3931-3933 18th St	0.56mi	3/3.0	2,908 (-7%)	12mo	$1,250,000	$430	48
514 Hill St	0.47mi	4/5.0 (+1)	2,740 (-13%)	10mo	$2,000,000	$730	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.82×
• Total profit: $-79,106
• Equity at exit: $238,565

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.90×
• Total profit: $404,222
• Equity at exit: $138,339

Cash invested: $448,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City San Francisco: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+57

SF Rent Ordinance + Eviction Protections; relocation $10k+; one of strictest in US.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94110

• Rents YoY: 14.5%
• Active inventory: 161
• Price-to-rent: 28.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $14,102 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$8,391
• Tax from tax record: −$413 /mo · $4,953/yr
• Insurance: −$667
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,961
• Net cashflow: $1,671

Break-even live

Break-even rent $11,987

Max offer price $1,600,000

Occupancy floor 83%

3-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 3× units	1	1	$14,103
Total (3 units)			$14,102

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $400,000
• Closing costs: $48,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1076 S Van Ness Ave San Francisco, CA	4.0	3.5	3776	$19,950	$5.28	2d	1	0.39mi
1059 Noe St San Francisco, CA	3.0	2.5	2545	$14,000	$5.50	43d	1	0.47mi
753 Castro St San Francisco, CA	4.0	3.0	2467	$10,950	$4.44	43d	1	0.58mi
471 S Van Ness Ave San Francisco, CA	4.0	3.0	2140	$11,000	$5.14	15d	1	0.83mi
143 Corbett Ave San Francisco, CA	4.0	4.0	2500	$10,500	$4.20	43d	1	1.05mi
65 High St Unit NA San Francisco, CA	4.0	3.0	2315	$9,950	$4.30	43d	1	1.15mi
124 Alpine Ter San Francisco, CA	3.0	2.0	2200	$11,995	$5.45	11d	1	1.20mi
124 Alpine Ter San Francisco, CA	3.0	2.0	2200	$12,500	$5.68	24d	1	1.20mi
124 Alpine Ter San Francisco, CA	3.0	2.0	2200	$11,995	$5.45	14d	1	1.20mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,600,000 Active 394 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,600,000 Active 393 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,600,000 Active 392 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,600,000 Active 391 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,600,000 Active 389 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,600,000 Active 388 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,600,000 Active 385 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,600,000 Active 384 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $1,600,000 Active 383 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $1,600,000 Active 380 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $1,600,000 Active 379 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1,600,000 Active 378 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,600,000 Active 377 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,600,000 Active 376 DOM
15. 2026-03-05
    price $1,600,000 521-char remark

    Show marketing remark (521 chars)

    Three 1 bed apartments, an on site manager’s office, a garage, and laundromat — all just steps from iconic Dolores Park. Prime location, strong cash flow, and rare investment upside in the heart of San Francisco. Dolores Park is a vibrant and iconic green space in San Francisco’s Mission District, known for its sunny weather, scenic city views, and lively community atmosphere. Popular for picnics, people-watching, and weekend gatherings, it offers a perfect blend of natural beauty and urban energy.

16. 2026-01-30
    price $1,700,000 521-char remark

    Show marketing remark (521 chars)

    Three 1 bed apartments, an on site manager’s office, a garage, and laundromat — all just steps from iconic Dolores Park. Prime location, strong cash flow, and rare investment upside in the heart of San Francisco. Dolores Park is a vibrant and iconic green space in San Francisco’s Mission District, known for its sunny weather, scenic city views, and lively community atmosphere. Popular for picnics, people-watching, and weekend gatherings, it offers a perfect blend of natural beauty and urban energy.

17. 2025-05-20
    listed $1,800,000 Active 521-char remark

    Show marketing remark (521 chars)

    Three 1 bed apartments, an on site manager’s office, a garage, and laundromat — all just steps from iconic Dolores Park. Prime location, strong cash flow, and rare investment upside in the heart of San Francisco. Dolores Park is a vibrant and iconic green space in San Francisco’s Mission District, known for its sunny weather, scenic city views, and lively community atmosphere. Popular for picnics, people-watching, and weekend gatherings, it offers a perfect blend of natural beauty and urban energy.

18. 2010-02-10
    soldstatus $875,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,953 · $413/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $12,160 · $1,013/mo
• Expected delta: +$7,207/yr (+$601/mo · 145.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $169,224
• − Mortgage interest: −$89,625
• − Property taxes: −$4,953
• − Insurance: −$8,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$13,538
• − Management: −$13,538
• − Depreciation: −$46,545
• Taxable loss: −$6,975
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,674
• After-tax cash flow: $21,721/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Francisco Unified
• NCES district ID: 0634410
• Math proficiency: 50% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $81,249
• Composite: 50.14/100
• National rank: #4088
• State rank: #322 of 1400 in CA

Livability — San Francisco

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #3143

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Francisco, CA
• County: San Francisco County · 827,552 people
• City population: 827,552
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 66,865
• Household income: $158,351
• Rent vs Own: 58.2% rent · 41.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2732.0

Population outlook (San Francisco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,030,936 people
• By 2030: 1,110,409 · +7.7%
• By 2040: 1,270,010 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 1,435,001 · +39.2%
• By 2075: 1,779,074 · +72.6%
• By 2100: 1,966,767 · +90.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 41% Hispanic / Latino 32% Asian 16% Two or more races 15% Black 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 28% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 58% English-only · Spanish 27% Chinese 5% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · San Francisco

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+64.8) · D 80.3% · R 15.5% · Other 4.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.7pp toward R · 2008: 70.5pp · 2024: 64.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+64.8 2020: D+72.5 2016: D+76.1 2012: D+70.2 2008: D+70.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1385.62%
• Current HPI: 267.2424
• Rent YoY: ▲ 14.54%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+82.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $1,600,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-01-30 Price Changed $1,700,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-05-20 Listed $1,800,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2010-02-10 Sold (Public Records) $875,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2010): $4,953 · +2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.