9782 SE 157th Ln · The Villages, FL 34491

$209,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,176 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 108 Days on market

Built 1974 0.29 ac lot $178/sqft · 10% below area Est $232k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.8/30.0
• ARV discount +11.8/15.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This cute 3/1 home has been completely updated: Roof - 2018, HVAC-2021, Water Pump/Tank -2020, Windows-2021. This home sits on a large corner lot, completely fenced with a storage shed, dog kennel, and a large dog run in the backyard. Did I mention location? Great location close to The Villages, Belleview, and less than one mile to Lake Weir. Call today and schedule your personal showing.

Key facts

• Large dog run
• Large corner lot
• Great location

Tags

• LARGE CORNER LOT
• COMPLETELY FENCED
• STORAGE SHED
• DOG KENNEL
• LARGE DOG RUN
• GREAT LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $134 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $197k (6.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $191k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 5.0% in The Villages — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#431 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 705 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 108 days — a 9% lower offer ($191k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $93k; list at $210k implies a 126% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $191,009 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 108 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.73%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $232,189
• List price: $209,900
• Delta: -9.60%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15641 SE 97th Ave	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,232 (+5%)	17mo	$228,980	$186	66
15828 SE 98th Ter	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,349 (+15%)	12mo	$287,000	$213	56
9140 SE 155th Pl	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,140 (-3%)	4mo	$125,000	$110	56
9289 SE 159th Ln	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,232 (+5%)	17mo	$232,500	$189	54
10496 SE Sunset Harbor Rd	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,092 (-7%)	2mo	$206,000	$189	48
9558 SE 161st St	0.37mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,066 (-9%)	20mo	$77,000	$72	45
10201 SE Sunset Harbor Rd	0.75mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,056 (-10%)	6mo	$150,000	$142	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-25,476
• Equity at exit: $31,297

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-11,158
• Equity at exit: $18,148

Cash invested: $58,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34491

• Home prices YoY: -35.0%
• Active inventory: 705
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,969 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$234 /mo · $2,806/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$414
• Net cashflow: $134

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,800

Max offer price $209,900

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,475
• Closing costs: $6,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10326 SE 162nd Place Rd Summerfield, FL	3.0	2.0	1419	$2,300	$1.62	13d	1	0.68mi
9195 SE 163rd St Summerfield, FL	3.0	2.0	1410	$1,800	$1.28	21d	1	0.77mi
9990 SE 166th St Summerfield, FL	3.0	2.0	962	$1,395	$1.45	13d	1	0.82mi
8721 SE 157th St Summerfield, FL	3.0	2.0	1236	$1,650	$1.33	21d	1	1.08mi
9523 SE 168th Maplesong Ln The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1265	$1,975	$1.56	21d	1	1.09mi
16962 SE 94th Sunnybrook Cir The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1160	$2,000	$1.72	21d	1	1.19mi
11001 SE Sunset Harbor Rd Unit A08 Summerfield, FL	2.0	1.5	1200	$2,000	$1.67	21d	1	1.26mi
11001 SE Sunset Harbor Rd Unit H52 Summerfield, FL	2.0	2.5	1224	$1,440	$1.18	21d	1	1.26mi
11001 SE Sunset Harbor Rd Summerfield, FL	2.0	1.5–2.0	1244	$1,770	$1.42	21d	2	1.29mi
17199 SE 97th Ter Summerfield, FL	3.0	2.0	1404	$1,990	$1.42	21d	1	1.39mi
8364 SE 158th Pl Summerfield, FL	3.0	2.0	1374	$2,000	$1.46	13d	1	1.42mi
8352 SE 158th Pl Summerfield, FL	3.0	2.0	1232	$2,000	$1.62	13d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $209,900 Active 108 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $209,900 Active 107 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $209,900 Active 106 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $209,900 Active 105 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $209,900 Active 103 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $209,900 Active 102 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $215,000 Active 100 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $215,000 Active 99 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $215,000 Active 98 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $215,000 Active 97 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $215,000 Active 93 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $215,000 Active 92 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $215,000 Active 91 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $215,000 Active 90 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $215,000 Active 89 DOM
16. 2026-04-17
    price $215,000 394-char remark

    Show marketing remark (394 chars)

    This cute 3/1 home has been completely updated: Roof - 2018, HVAC-2021, Water Pump/Tank -2020, Windows-2021. This home sits on a large corner lot, completely fenced with a storage shed, dog kennel, and a large dog run in the backyard. Did I mention location? Great location close to The Villages, Belleview, and less than one mile to Lake Weir. Call today and schedule your personal showing.

17. 2026-03-18
    price $219,900 394-char remark

    Show marketing remark (394 chars)

    This cute 3/1 home has been completely updated: Roof - 2018, HVAC-2021, Water Pump/Tank -2020, Windows-2021. This home sits on a large corner lot, completely fenced with a storage shed, dog kennel, and a large dog run in the backyard. Did I mention location? Great location close to The Villages, Belleview, and less than one mile to Lake Weir. Call today and schedule your personal showing.

18. 2026-03-02
    listed $224,900 Active 394-char remark

    Show marketing remark (394 chars)

    This cute 3/1 home has been completely updated: Roof - 2018, HVAC-2021, Water Pump/Tank -2020, Windows-2021. This home sits on a large corner lot, completely fenced with a storage shed, dog kennel, and a large dog run in the backyard. Did I mention location? Great location close to The Villages, Belleview, and less than one mile to Lake Weir. Call today and schedule your personal showing.

19. 2025-07-14
    historical $1,550
20. 2025-05-28
    listed $1,550
21. 2023-08-15
    historical
22. 2023-05-08
    listed $229,900 Active
23. 2018-11-29
    soldstatus $93,000
24. 2018-11-28
    soldstatus $93,000
25. 2018-06-18
    listed $100,000
26. 2000-12-27
    soldstatus $46,900
27. 1986-03-01
    soldstatus $38,500
28. 1982-05-01
    soldstatus $23,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,806 · $234/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,806 · $234/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,633
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,758
• − Property taxes: −$2,806
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,891
• − Management: −$1,891
• − Depreciation: −$6,106
• Taxable loss: −$1,867
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$448
• After-tax cash flow: $2,054/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — The Villages

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #431
• US rank: #7363

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Marion County · 315,796 people
• City population: 83,973
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,318
• Household income: $66,679
• Rent vs Own: 13.2% rent · 86.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 256.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 9% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 11% Vietnamese 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.67%
• Current HPI: 200.0792
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+834.8% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $215,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $219,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-02 Listed $224,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-14 Rental Removed $1,550 STELLARMLS
• 2025-05-28 Listed for Rent $1,550 STELLARMLS
• 2023-08-15 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-05-08 Listed $229,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-11-29 Sold (Public Records) $93,000 Public Records
• 2018-11-28 Sold (MLS) $93,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-06-18 Listed $100,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2000-12-27 Sold (Public Records) $46,900 Public Records
• 1986-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $38,500 Public Records
• 1982-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $23,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,806 · +9.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.