4402 Silverbrook Ln Unit D302 · Owings Mills, MD 21117

$189,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 916 sqft · Condo public records · 81 Days on market

Built 1992 $207/sqft · 8% below area Est $205k · 8% under $415/mo HOA · 21% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.2/30.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

TOP-FLOOR UNIT WITH VAULTED CEILINGS & PRIVATE TREE VIEWS! FHA and VA Approved - Spacious top floor 2-bedroom condo featuring fresh paint and brand-new carpet throughout, updated bath, and an open kitchen overlooking the living room, outdoors and wood-burning fireplace. Enjoy the tree view balcony and convenience of Red Run Stream Valley Trail just steps away. Plenty of storage inside and out. You deserve maintenance-free living with community pool access! Main photo virtually staged.

Key facts

• $415 HOA
• Community pool
• Built 1992

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-109 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $170k (10.1% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
• Recommended offer: $170k (10.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 4.0% in Owings Mills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#57 in MD, #2,037 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities D, crime D-.
• Baltimore County Public Schools (suburban): math 15% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #11 of 24 in MD (top 46%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: New Town Elementary (math 14% / reading 24%, grade F, #385 of 860 statewide, top 46%, 809 students, 61% FRL); Deer Park Middle Magnet School (math 4% / reading 36%, grade F, #147 of 225 statewide, top 68%, 1,322 students, 57% FRL); New Town High (math 2% / reading 24%, grade F, #191 of 222 statewide, top 86%, 1,316 students, 55% FRL) — zoned schools average 58% FRL vs 39% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 168 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,511 units permitted in Baltimore County in 2024 (643 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baltimore County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 81 days — a 6% lower offer ($178k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 30y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $115k; list at $190k implies a 65% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 21% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $170,273 (10.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 81 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.60%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.46%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $205,371
• List price: $189,500
• Delta: -7.73%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.87% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-37,636
• Equity at exit: $28,255

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-41,696
• Equity at exit: $16,384

Cash invested: $53,060 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21117

• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 168
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,002 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$994
• Tax from tax record: −$203 /mo · $2,431/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$415
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $-109

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,140

Max offer price $170,273

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-2	-5% $-55	+0% $-109	+5% $-162	+10% $-216
Rent	-10% $-267	-5% $-188	+0% $-109	+5% $-30	+10% $49
Rate	-1.0pp $-13	-0.5pp $-61	base $-109	+0.5pp $-158	+1.0pp $-208

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,375
• Closing costs: $5,685
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 25 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4300 Flint Hill Dr Owings Mills, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	952	$2,044	$2.15	0d	29	0.15mi
4606 Cascade Mills Dr Owings Mills, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1400	$2,407	$1.72	0d	20	0.31mi
4604 Owings Run Rd Owings Mills, MD	1.0–3.0	2.0	1102	$2,101	$1.91	0d	22	0.44mi
9204 Appleford Cir Owings Mills, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1001	$2,117	$2.11	0d	22	0.53mi
9401 Groveton Cir Owings Mills, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1158	$2,262	$1.95	0d	12	0.54mi
9432 Lyons Mill Rd Unit 2 Owings Mills, MD	3.0	1.5	1000	$2,295	$2.29	7d	1	0.61mi
9432 Lyons Mill Rd Unit 1 Owings Mills, MD	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,095	$2.10	7d	1	0.61mi
5004 Stone Shop Cir Owings Mills, MD	2.0	1.0	985	$1,600	$1.62	46d	1	0.63mi
5004 Stone Shop Cir #5004 Owings Mills, MD	2.0	1.0	985	$1,500	$1.52	46d	1	0.64mi
4700 Winterset Way Owings Mills, MD	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1118	$1,891	$1.69	4d	18	0.82mi
100 Chase Mill Cir Owings Mills, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	939	$1,891	$2.01	0d	10	0.84mi
10090 Mill Run Cir Apt 242 Owings Mills, MD	1.0	1.0	883	$1,596	$1.81	17d	1	0.84mi
10090 Mill Run Cir Unit 343 Owings Mills, MD	1.0	1.0	883	$1,620	$1.83	17d	1	0.84mi
10090 Mill Run Cir Owings Mills, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1219	$2,206	$1.81	22d	35	0.85mi
4700 Riverstone Dr Owings Mills, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1055	$1,975	$1.87	0d	22	0.86mi
629 Wilbur Sq Owings Mills, MD	2.0–3.0	2.5	1365	$2,162	$1.58	7d	4	0.96mi
1 Millpaint Ln Owings Mills, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1204	$1,526	$1.27	0d	21	1.02mi
10500 Grand Central Ave Owings Mills, MD	1.0	1.0	926	$2,352	$2.54	0d	6	1.04mi
9621 Mill Centre Dr Owings Mills, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	938	$2,125	$2.26	0d	2	1.08mi
10209 Grand Central Ave Owings Mills, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	850	$2,226	$2.62	0d	13	1.11mi
5000 Waverly Ln Owings Mills, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	915	$2,714	$2.96	0d	17	1.14mi
9755 Mill Centre Dr Owings Mills, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1143	$2,440	$2.13	0d	23	1.15mi
201 Owings Gate Ct Owings Mills, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1020	$2,075	$2.03	5d	9	1.15mi
103 Wilgate Rd Owings Mills, MD	3.0	1.0	792	$2,100	$2.65	22d	1	1.28mi
10024 Dolfield Rd Owings Mills, MD	3.0	1.0	980	$2,200	$2.24	46d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $415 · $4,980/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 38 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $189,500 Active 81 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $189,500 Active 80 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,500 Active 77 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,500 Active 76 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,500 Active 75 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,500 Active 74 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,500 Active 72 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,500 Active 68 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $189,500 Active 67 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $189,500 Active 66 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $189,500 Active 63 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $189,500 Active 62 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $189,500 Active 61 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $189,500 Active 60 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,500 Active 59 DOM
16. 2026-04-30
    price $189,500 496-char remark

    Show marketing remark (496 chars)

    TOP-FLOOR UNIT WITH VAULTED CEILINGS & PRIVATE TREE VIEWS! FHA and VA Approved - Spacious top floor 2-bedroom condo featuring fresh paint and brand-new carpet throughout, updated bath, and an open kitchen overlooking the living room, outdoors and wood-burning fireplace. Enjoy the tree view balcony and convenience of Red Run Stream Valley Trail just steps away. Plenty of storage inside and out. You deserve maintenance-free living with community pool access! Main photo virtually staged.

17. 2026-04-03
    listed $195,000 Active 496-char remark

    Show marketing remark (496 chars)

    TOP-FLOOR UNIT WITH VAULTED CEILINGS & PRIVATE TREE VIEWS! FHA and VA Approved - Spacious top floor 2-bedroom condo featuring fresh paint and brand-new carpet throughout, updated bath, and an open kitchen overlooking the living room, outdoors and wood-burning fireplace. Enjoy the tree view balcony and convenience of Red Run Stream Valley Trail just steps away. Plenty of storage inside and out. You deserve maintenance-free living with community pool access! Main photo virtually staged.

18. 2026-04-03
    historical $195,000 496-char remark

    Show marketing remark (496 chars)

    TOP-FLOOR UNIT WITH VAULTED CEILINGS & PRIVATE TREE VIEWS! FHA and VA Approved - Spacious top floor 2-bedroom condo featuring fresh paint and brand-new carpet throughout, updated bath, and an open kitchen overlooking the living room, outdoors and wood-burning fireplace. Enjoy the tree view balcony and convenience of Red Run Stream Valley Trail just steps away. Plenty of storage inside and out. You deserve maintenance-free living with community pool access! Main photo virtually staged.

19. 2019-05-02
    soldstatus $115,000
20. 2019-04-26
    soldstatus $115,000 Closed 371-char remark

    Show marketing remark (371 chars)

    Gorgeous 3rd floor condo. Ready for you to move in! Neutral paint and carpet throughout. Wood burning fireplace in the family room. Wine storage in the kitchen for the wine enthusiast! Balcony off of the family room with privacy, shade and extra storage room. Ample closet space throughout the entire unit. Multiple community pools to pick from to spend your summer days!

21. 2019-03-14
    status Pending 371-char remark

    Show marketing remark (371 chars)

    Gorgeous 3rd floor condo. Ready for you to move in! Neutral paint and carpet throughout. Wood burning fireplace in the family room. Wine storage in the kitchen for the wine enthusiast! Balcony off of the family room with privacy, shade and extra storage room. Ample closet space throughout the entire unit. Multiple community pools to pick from to spend your summer days!

22. 2018-11-12
    listed $120,000 Active 371-char remark

    Show marketing remark (371 chars)

    Gorgeous 3rd floor condo. Ready for you to move in! Neutral paint and carpet throughout. Wood burning fireplace in the family room. Wine storage in the kitchen for the wine enthusiast! Balcony off of the family room with privacy, shade and extra storage room. Ample closet space throughout the entire unit. Multiple community pools to pick from to spend your summer days!

23. 2015-10-01
    soldstatus $117,900
24. 2015-09-25
    historical
25. 2015-09-25
    soldstatus $117,900 Sold
26. 2015-09-25
    soldstatus $117,900
27. 2015-08-12
    status Contract
28. 2015-08-11
    historical
29. 2015-08-08
    price $117,900
30. 2015-06-08
    listed $123,900 Active
31. 2015-06-08
    listed $117,900
32. 2003-05-05
    soldstatus $106,500
33. 2001-09-20
    soldstatus $79,900
34. 1996-11-12
    historical
35. 1996-09-04
    historical
36. 1996-03-16
    listed
37. 1996-03-16
    listed
38. 1992-03-18
    soldstatus $92,195

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,431 · $203/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,431 · $203/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 15% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,022
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,615
• − Property taxes: −$2,431
• − Insurance: −$948
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,922
• − Management: −$1,922
• − HOA: −$4,980
• − Depreciation: −$5,513
• Taxable loss: −$4,308
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,034
• After-tax cash flow: $-272/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400120
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $66,746
• Composite: 23.17/100
• National rank: #7948
• State rank: #11 of 24 in MD

Livability — Owings Mills

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #57
• US rank: #2037

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living C- Crime D- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Owings Mills, MD
• County: Baltimore County · 769,527 people
• City population: 62,816
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 62,816
• Household income: $101,831
• Rent vs Own: 45.0% rent · 55.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2285.0

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 885,518 people
• By 2030: 909,272 · +2.7%
• By 2040: 951,547 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 990,955 · +11.9%
• By 2075: 1,086,411 · +22.7%
• By 2100: 1,135,078 · +28.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 53% White 30% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.5) · D 61.0% · R 36.5% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 14.6pp · 2024: 24.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.5 2020: D+27.0 2016: D+17.4 2012: D+16.4 2008: D+14.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -184.00%
• Current HPI: 229.4095
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.87%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+105.5% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $189,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-03 Listed $195,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-03 Coming Soon $195,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-05-02 Sold (Public Records) $115,000 Public Records
• 2019-04-26 Sold (MLS) $115,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-03-14 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-11-12 Listed $120,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2015-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $117,900 Public Records
• 2015-09-25 Delisted — MRIS
• 2015-09-25 Sold (MLS) $117,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2015-09-25 Sold (MLS) $117,900 MRIS
• 2015-08-12 Pending — MRIS
• 2015-08-11 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2015-08-08 Price Changed $117,900 MRIS
• 2015-06-08 Listed $123,900 MRIS
• 2015-06-08 Listed $117,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2003-05-05 Sold (Public Records) $106,500 Public Records
• 2001-09-20 Sold (Public Records) $79,900 Public Records
• 1996-11-12 Delisted — MRIS
• 1996-09-04 Delisted — MRIS
• 1996-03-16 Listed — MRIS
• 1996-03-16 Listed — MRIS
• 1992-03-18 Sold (Public Records) $92,195 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,431 · +4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.