1143 Chemawa Lp NE · Keizer, OR 97303

$27,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 800 sqft · Manufactured public records · 25 Days on market

Built 1967

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

New improved price! Bring your hammer and tool belt to make this home yours. Home has a large living room, two sheds and covered parking. Located in Rainbow Garden Mobile Village 55+ community with affordable space rent of $625 that covers water, sewer and garbage. Selling AS-IS.

Key facts

• Garage
• Built 1967
• Listed 24 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Sold as-is
• Financial info: Space rent: $609 (covers water, sewer, garbage)
• HOA & community: Located in Rainbow Gardens mobile village (55+ community); Adult park

Exterior

• Parking: Carport; 1 garage space
• Utilities: Electric water heater; Park rent includes water, sewer, and garbage; Park utilities included
• Home design: Double wide mobile home; Built in 1967; Front door entry
• Construction: Lap siding; Tar roof
• Exterior features: Covered deck; Shed; White exterior

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range
• Flooring: Laminate; Luxury vinyl plank
• Heating & cooling: Electric forced-air heating
• Interior features: Laminate and luxury vinyl plank flooring; Dining area (combination)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $28k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $28k).
• Recommended offer: $27k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 50.8% vs local median 2.9% in Keizer — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#56 in OR, #1,918 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, crime B+; Watch: commute D+.
• Salem-Keizer SD 24J (urban): math 34% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #103 of 183 in OR (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Keizer Elementary School (561 students, 70% FRL); Mcnary High School (2,081 students, 92% FRL) — zoned schools average 81% FRL vs 53% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 176 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,591 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $190 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $825 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.7% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($27k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $9k; list at $28k implies a 214% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $27,087 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 5.47% ✓
• Cap rate: 50.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 159.10%
• DSCR: 8.08
• GRM: 1.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $59,200
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1192 Chemawa Lp NE	0.12mi	2/1.0	800 (0%)	8mo	$59,000	$74	88
1138 NE Chemawa Lp	0.02mi	2/1.0	840 (+5%)	19mo	$82,000	$98	75
4783 Joyce St #93	0.56mi	2/2.0	800 (0%)	2mo	$50,000	$63	68
5355 River Rd N	0.70mi	2/2.0	792 (-1%)	1mo	$20,000	$25	61
2077 Kennedy Cir NE #69	0.53mi	2/1.0	840 (+5%)	11mo	$66,500	$79	58
2013 Kennedy Cir NE #11	0.55mi	3/1.0 (+1)	774 (-3%)	16mo	$60,000	$78	50
2087 Kennedy Cir NE #79	0.53mi	2/1.0	728 (-9%)	21mo	$26,000	$36	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.74% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 9.01×
• Total profit: $61,702
• Equity at exit: $4,100

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 19.47×
• Total profit: $142,187
• Equity at exit: $2,378

Cash invested: $7,700 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97303

• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 176
• Price-to-rent: 1.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,504 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$144
• Tax from tax record: −$11 /mo · $135/yr
• Insurance: −$11
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$316
• Net cashflow: $1,021

Break-even live

Break-even rent $211

Max offer price $27,500

Occupancy floor 27%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,036	-5% $1,029	+0% $1,021	+5% $1,013	+10% $1,005
Rent	-10% $902	-5% $962	+0% $1,021	+5% $1,080	+10% $1,140
Rate	-1.0pp $1,035	-0.5pp $1,028	base $1,021	+0.5pp $1,014	+1.0pp $1,007

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $6,875
• Closing costs: $825
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4853 Verda Ln NE Keizer, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	968	$1,914	$1.98	15d	10	0.24mi
1813 Drexler Ln NE Unit 5076-101 Keizer, OR	1.0	1.0	725	$1,200	$1.66	45d	1	0.33mi
1813 Drexler Ln NE Unit 5095-202 Keizer, OR	2.0	1.0	848	$1,400	$1.65	24d	1	0.33mi
898 Lockhaven Dr NE Keizer, OR	2.0	2.0	903	$1,550	$1.72	15d	3	0.47mi
597 Rose Park Ln NE Unit 257-563 Keizer, OR	1.0	1.0	690	$1,099	$1.59	15d	1	0.51mi
597 Rose Park Ln NE Unit 257-636 Keizer, OR	2.0	1.5	875	$1,300	$1.49	45d	1	0.51mi
597 Rose Park Ln NE Unit 257-614 Keizer, OR	2.0	1.5	875	$1,300	$1.49	15d	1	0.51mi
597 Rose Park Ln NE Unit 257-664 Keizer, OR	2.0	1.0	840	$1,250	$1.49	15d	1	0.51mi
600 Lockhaven Dr NE Keizer, OR	2.0	1.0	834	$1,399	$1.68	45d	1	0.51mi
180 Sandy Dr N Unit 196 Keizer, OR	2.0	1.0	875	$1,300	$1.49	24d	1	0.60mi
790 Lockhaven Dr NE Keizer, OR	2.0	1.5	1050	$2,024	$1.93	11d	11	0.64mi
5799 Trail Ave NE Unit 5819-304 Keizer, OR	2.0	2.0	952	$1,695	$1.78	24d	1	0.65mi
5925 Trail Ave NE Keizer, OR	2.0	2.0	918	$1,550	$1.69	9d	1	0.68mi
5945 Trail Ave NE Keizer, OR	2.0	2.0	1005	$1,500	$1.49	45d	1	0.69mi
5905 Trail Ave NE Keizer, OR	2.0	2.0	1005	$1,500	$1.49	45d	1	0.70mi
5955 Trail Ave NE Keizer, OR	2.0	2.0	918	$1,550	$1.69	24d	1	0.70mi
5965 Trail Ave NE Salem, OR	2.0	2.0	1005	$1,500	$1.49	45d	1	0.72mi
5975 Trail Ave NE Salem, OR	2.0	2.0	918	$1,500	$1.63	22d	1	0.73mi
4329 Arnold St NE Unit 4329 Keizer, OR	2.0	2.0	950	$1,800	$1.89	45d	1	0.74mi
4325 Arnold St NE Unit 4325 Keizer, OR	2.0	2.0	950	$1,900	$2.00	24d	1	0.74mi
4323 Arnold St NE Unit 4323 Keizer, OR	2.0	2.0	950	$1,750	$1.84	24d	1	0.74mi
4327 Arnold St NE Unit 4327 Keizer, OR	1.0	1.0	600	$1,550	$2.58	24d	1	0.74mi
208 Lakepoint Pl N Keizer, OR	2.0	1.0	936	$1,650	$1.76	3d	2	0.75mi
589 Greenwood Dr NE Unit Greenwood Dr NE unit 37 Keizer, OR	2.0	1.0	850	$1,250	$1.47	45d	1	0.75mi
205 Lakepoint Pl N Keizer, OR	2.0	1.0	936	$1,650	$1.76	15d	1	0.77mi
4267 Tiffany Pl NE Unit 4267 Keizer, OR	2.0	1.0	850	$1,195	$1.41	45d	1	0.80mi
235 Cummings Ln N Unit 263 Keizer, OR	1.0	1.0	675	$1,095	$1.62	15d	1	0.81mi
737 Manbrin Dr NE Keizer, OR	1.0	1.0	760	$1,199	$1.58	15d	1	0.83mi
737 Manbrin Dr NE Unit 124-765201 Keizer, OR	1.0	1.0	760	$1,199	$1.58	24d	1	0.83mi
295 Lakepoint Pl N Keizer, OR	2.0	1.0	936	$1,650	$1.76	24d	1	0.84mi
4995 Delight St N Unit 4995-204 Keizer, OR	2.0	1.0	870	$1,295	$1.49	45d	1	0.90mi
4014-4040 Arleta Ave NE Unit 4018 Keizer, OR	1.0	1.0	602	$995	$1.65	24d	1	1.02mi
4014-4040 Arleta Ave NE Unit 4034 Keizer, OR	1.0	1.0	602	$995	$1.65	45d	1	1.02mi
4165 River Rd N Keizer, OR	2.0	1.5	950	$1,395	$1.47	24d	1	1.05mi
1195 Clearview Ave NE Keizer, OR	1.0	1.0	650	$1,100	$1.69	45d	3	1.09mi
4525 Rivercrest Dr N Unit 4525 Keizer, OR	2.0	1.0	720	$1,295	$1.80	45d	1	1.09mi
861 Chemawa Rd N Unit 881 Keizer, OR	2.0	1.0	800	$1,495	$1.87	22d	1	1.10mi
3960 Cherry Ave NE Keizer, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	895	$1,900	$2.12	15d	4	1.12mi
132-168 Sunset Ave N Unit 136 Keizer, OR	1.0	1.0	572	$995	$1.74	45d	1	1.14mi
132-168 Sunset Ave N Unit 134 Keizer, OR	1.0	1.0	572	$995	$1.74	22d	1	1.14mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $27,500 Active 25 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $27,500 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $27,500 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $27,500 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $27,500 Active 19 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $27,500 Active 17 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $27,500 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $27,500 Active 13 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $27,500 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    remarks 280-char remark
11. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $27,500 Active 11 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $39,000 Active 7 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $39,000 Active 6 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $39,000 Active 5 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $39,000 Active 4 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $39,000 Active 3 DOM
17. 2026-05-27
    listed $39,000 Active
18. 1985-06-05
    soldstatus $8,750

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $135 · $11/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $267 · $22/mo
• Expected delta: +$132/yr (+$11/mo · 97.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 49% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 13 unhealthy d/yr today · 14 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,043
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,540
• − Property taxes: −$135
• − Insurance: −$138
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,443
• − Management: −$1,443
• − Depreciation: −$800
• Taxable income: $12,543
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,010
• After-tax cash flow: $9,240/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Salem-Keizer SD 24J
• NCES district ID: 4110820
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,632
• Composite: 37.16/100
• National rank: #9017
• State rank: #103 of 183 in OR

Livability — Keizer

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #56
• US rank: #1918

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute D+ Cost of living C+ Crime B+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Keizer, OR
• County: Marion County · 258,219 people
• City population: 40,659
• Metro: Salem, OR
• Population (ZIP): 40,659
• Household income: $84,871
• Rent vs Own: 37.0% rent · 63.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1297.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 360,940 people
• By 2030: 375,178 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 400,914 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 422,187 · +17.0%
• By 2075: 460,305 · +27.5%
• By 2100: 464,025 · +28.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 14% Native American 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Portuguese 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Asian/Pacific 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.5% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.2pp toward R · 2008: 2.2pp · 2024: -2.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.0 2020: D+1.1 2016: R+5.0 2012: R+3.5 2008: D+2.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -428.84%
• Current HPI: 292.0057
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.74%
• Metro: Salem, OR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

+345.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Listed $39,000 WVMLS
• 1985-06-05 Sold (Public Records) $8,750 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2017): $135 · +30.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.