TBD SW 30th St · Rainbow Park, FL 34481

$199,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,058 sqft · Land · 66 Days on market

Built 2026 10,019 sqft lot $189/sqft · 7% below area Est $215k · 7% under ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.7/30.0
• ARV discount +10.6/15.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great . 24 acre vacant lot located in the highly desirable Rainbow Park community. Lots of new construction. Build your future home here. Super fast growing neighborhood. Buy it now before it's gone.

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• L-shaped kitchen
• Led pendant lighting

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING AREA
• L-SHAPED KITCHEN
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS-STEEL APPLIANCES
• LED PENDANT LIGHTING
• NEW CONSTRUCTION HOME

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $125 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $191k (4.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $188k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 5.4% in Rainbow Park — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 1152 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($188k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask is 876% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $15k; list at $200k implies a 1233% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $187,999 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.69%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $214,905
• List price: $199,999
• Delta: -6.94%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-24,398
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-10,850
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34481

• Home prices YoY: -25.2%
• Active inventory: 1152
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,908 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$250 /mo · $3,000/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$401
• Net cashflow: $125

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,750

Max offer price $199,999

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $264	-5% $194	+0% $125	+5% $56	+10% $-13
Rent	-10% $-25	-5% $50	+0% $125	+5% $201	+10% $276
Rate	-1.0pp $226	-0.5pp $176	base $125	+0.5pp $73	+1.0pp $21

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15388 SW 26th Pl Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1218	$1,800	$1.48	14d	1	0.21mi
15854 SW 38th Pl Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1267	$1,750	$1.38	14d	1	0.78mi
14665 SW 22nd Pl Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1226	$1,900	$1.55	14d	1	0.95mi
14445 SW 22nd Pl Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,400	$1.40	22d	1	1.14mi
4486 SW 159th Ct Ocala, FL	3.0	1.0	1149	$2,500	$2.18	22d	1	1.23mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,999 Active 66 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,999 Active 65 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,999 Active 64 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,999 Active 63 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $199,999 Active 61 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,999 Active 60 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,999 Active 58 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,999 Active 57 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,999 Active 56 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,999 Active 55 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,999 Active 51 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,999 Active 50 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,999 Active 49 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,999 Active 48 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $199,999 Active 47 DOM
16. 2026-05-08
    status Active 199-char remark

    Show marketing remark (199 chars)

    Great . 24 acre vacant lot located in the highly desirable Rainbow Park community. Lots of new construction. Build your future home here. Super fast growing neighborhood. Buy it now before it's gone.

17. 2026-05-07
    listed $20,500 Active 451-char remark

    Show marketing remark (451 chars)

    High and dry vacant lot located in Rainbow Park Estates! Great opportunity to build your dream home or investment property in a growing area surrounded by newer construction homes. Zoned R1 for site-built homes only with no HOA. Conveniently located near Ocala, Dunnellon, shopping, dining, and outdoor recreation while still offering privacy and peaceful living. Don’t miss this chance to own land in a rapidly developing area of Marion County.

18. 2026-04-13
    listed $199,999 Active
19. 2026-03-26
    status Pending 199-char remark

    Show marketing remark (199 chars)

    Great . 24 acre vacant lot located in the highly desirable Rainbow Park community. Lots of new construction. Build your future home here. Super fast growing neighborhood. Buy it now before it's gone.

20. 2026-03-23
    listed $20,500 Active 199-char remark

    Show marketing remark (199 chars)

    Great . 24 acre vacant lot located in the highly desirable Rainbow Park community. Lots of new construction. Build your future home here. Super fast growing neighborhood. Buy it now before it's gone.

21. 2022-05-09
    soldstatus $15,000 Closed
22. 2022-04-11
    status Pending
23. 2022-03-18
    price $18,000
24. 2022-01-04
    listed $25,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,898
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$3,000
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,832
• − Management: −$1,832
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$1,787
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$429
• After-tax cash flow: $1,933/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Rainbow Park

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rainbow Park, FL
• County: Marion County · 315,796 people
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 26,782
• Household income: $57,324
• Rent vs Own: 9.8% rent · 90.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 313.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 11% Black 7% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 9% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -67.48%
• Current HPI: 199.986
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-19.6% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-07 Listed $20,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-13 Listed $199,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-26 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-23 Listed $20,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-05-09 Sold (MLS) $15,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-04-11 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-03-18 Price Changed $18,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-01-04 Listed $25,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid