16736 E Ivanhoe · Conroe, TX 77316

$216,999

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 1,532 sqft · Land · 9 Days on market

Built 2026 2,100 sqft lot $32/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.4/30.0
• DSCR +9.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to this stunning 4-bedroom residence featuring a spacious primary suite conveniently located downstairs. From the moment you walk in, you’re greeted by beautiful, unique marble-like flooring and elegant finishes that create a bright and welcoming atmosphere. The open layout is perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. Located just minutes from Lake Conroe, this home offers the ideal setting for family outings, boating, dining, and weekend fun. A perfect blend of comfort, style, and location—this home is a must-see!

Key facts

• Open layout
• Marble-look flooring
• 2,100 sq ft lot

Tags

• PRIMARY SUITE DOWNSTAIRS
• MARBLE-LOOK FLOORING
• OPEN LAYOUT
• MINUTES FROM LAKE CONROE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Builder: Covenant Home Builders LLC
• HOA & community: Managed by Spectrum Association Management; Annual association fee of $384

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service
• Home design: Residential property; New construction (2026); Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Cement siding; Built in 2026; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Cleared lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Kitchen island; Kitchen/family room combo
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 12 x 13.5); Additional bedroom on the fourth floor (approx. 11 x 12.5); Up to 4 possible bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Kitchen island; Kitchen/family room combo; Double vanities; Self-closing cabinet doors and drawers; Dishwasher, Disposal, Microwave

🏗️ New construction. The $216,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $194,604.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath land listed at $217k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $509 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $215k (1.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $215k (1.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: commute F, health & safety F.
• Montgomery ISD (rural): math 63% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #49 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lake Creek H S (math 53% / reading 68%, grade C+, #268 of 1,632 statewide, top 17%, 1,649 students, 23% FRL) — zoned schools at 23% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 2283 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $214,761 (1.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.22%
• DSCR: 1.50
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $194,604
• List price: $216,999
• Delta: 11.51%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.4% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-4,638
• Equity at exit: $29,016

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.30×
• Total profit: $16,136
• Equity at exit: $16,826

Cash invested: $54,489 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77316

• Home prices YoY: -10.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 2283
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,148 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,021
• Tax from tax record: −$54 /mo · $645/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$32
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$451
• Net cashflow: $509

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,503

Max offer price $194,604

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,651
• Closing costs: $5,838
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16913 Glenheath Montgomery, TX	4.0	2.5	1700	$1,571	$0.92	44d	1	0.17mi
16928 Kempwood Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,450	$1.32	44d	1	0.20mi
16915 Balmoral Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,200	$1.00	44d	1	0.23mi
16984 W Juneau Montgomery, TX	3.0	3.0	1530	$2,900	$1.90	44d	1	0.26mi
135 April Point Dr N Montgomery, TX	3.0	3.0	1624	$1,900	$1.17	44d	1	0.92mi
130 April Point Dr N Montgomery, TX	3.0	3.0	1680	$2,250	$1.34	44d	1	0.93mi
124 April Point Dr N Montgomery, TX	4.0	3.0	1624	$2,900	$1.79	44d	1	0.95mi
275 Pine Terrace Dr Unit 5106C Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.5	1773	$2,820	$1.59	44d	1	0.98mi
702 Crystal River Rd Montgomery, TX	4.0	2.5	1820	$4,000	$2.20	44d	1	1.25mi
116 Lake View Cir Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.5	1751	$2,250	$1.28	44d	1	1.38mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $32 · $384/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $216,999 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $216,999 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $216,999 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $216,999 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $216,999 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $216,999 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on marketlisting id $216,999 Active 1 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $216,999 Active 37 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $216,999 Active 36 DOM
10. 2026-04-25
    listed $216,999 Active 554-char remark
11. 2026-04-23
    historical
12. 2026-02-10
    listed $227,000 Active
13. 2025-08-13
    historical
14. 2025-08-11
    listed $44,000 Active
15. 2025-08-06
    soldstatus
16. 2025-07-31
    soldstatus Closed
17. 2025-07-22
    status Pending
18. 2025-02-20
    listed $44,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $645 · $54/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,971 · $331/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,327/yr (+$277/mo · 516.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,771
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,901
• − Property taxes: −$645
• − Insurance: −$973
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,062
• − Management: −$2,062
• − HOA: −$384
• − Depreciation: −$5,661
• Taxable income: $3,084
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$740
• After-tax cash flow: $5,371/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery ISD
• NCES district ID: 4831260
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $75,596
• Composite: 53.55/100
• National rank: #1445
• State rank: #49 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,694
• Household income: $124,055
• Rent vs Own: 10.9% rent · 89.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 273.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Slovak 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.44%
• Current HPI: 262.6973
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.40%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+393.2% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Listed $216,999 HARMLS
• 2026-06-01 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-25 Listed $216,999 HARMLS
• 2026-04-23 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-02-10 Listed $227,000 HARMLS
• 2025-08-13 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-08-11 Listed $44,000 HARMLS
• 2025-08-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-07-31 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2025-07-22 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-02-20 Listed $44,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+24.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $645 · +57.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.