2539 Keller Ave · Norfolk, VA 23509

$190,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,961 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1915 10,454 sqft lot Est $363k · 48% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.6/10.0
• 1% rule +7.7/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Appreciation +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Great investment opportunity. Home to be sold in as-is condition.

Key facts

• 0.24 acre lot
• Built 1915

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $461 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 4.0% in Norfolk — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#43 in VA, #1,026 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Norfolk City Public School District (urban): math 27% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #118 of 131 in VA (top 90%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Coleman Place Elementary (math 13% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,046 of 1,108 statewide, top 95%, 617 students, 98% FRL); Matthew Fontaine Maury High (math 46% / reading 90%, grade B, #180 of 319 statewide, top 57%, 1,697 students, 96% FRL) — zoned schools average 97% FRL vs 59% district-wide (38 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+14.0%/yr); 82 active listings in the ZIP; 37 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 438 units permitted in Norfolk city in 2024 (273 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($73k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1915 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $190,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1915 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.41%
• DSCR: 1.46
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $362,785
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2908 Tait Ter	0.08mi	4/3.0	1,994 (+2%)	2mo	$329,900	$165	92
2354 Ballentine Blvd	0.26mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,966 (+0%)	8mo	$370,000	$188	74
2830 Vincent Ave	0.37mi	4/2.5	2,000 (+2%)	5mo	$350,000	$175	73
2617 Gornto Ave	0.44mi	4/2.5	2,000 (+2%)	7mo	$407,500	$204	68
3608 Tait Ter	0.51mi	4/2.5	1,864 (-5%)	3mo	$380,000	$204	64
3012 Ballentine Blvd	0.47mi	4/2.0	1,840 (-6%)	2mo	$325,000	$177	62
3122 Montana Ave	0.73mi	4/2.5	1,946 (-1%)	6mo	$300,000	$154	58
2924 Somme Ave	0.74mi	4/2.5	2,050 (+4%)	1mo	$402,000	$196	55
2729 Vimy Ridge Ave	0.67mi	4/2.0	2,086 (+6%)	4mo	$255,000	$122	51
2721 Argonne Ave	0.44mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,680 (-14%)	1mo	$365,000	$217	48
2815 Argonne Ave	0.44mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,200 (+12%)	7mo	$376,000	$171	44
2810 Hurley Ave	0.66mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,780 (-9%)	4mo	$330,000	$185	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.21×
• Total profit: $11,434
• Equity at exit: $28,330

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.00×
• Total profit: $106,150
• Equity at exit: $16,428

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23509

• Home prices YoY: -1.3%
• Rents YoY: 14.0%
• Active inventory: 82
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,407 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$364 /mo · $4,370/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$505
• Net cashflow: $461

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,822

Max offer price $190,000

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $569	-5% $515	+0% $461	+5% $408	+10% $354
Rent	-10% $271	-5% $366	+0% $461	+5% $557	+10% $652
Rate	-1.0pp $557	-0.5pp $510	base $461	+0.5pp $412	+1.0pp $362

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 37 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2531 Vincent Ave Norfolk, VA	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,195	$1.37	45d	1	0.03mi
2537 McKann Ave Norfolk, VA	4.0	2.5	2321	$2,695	$1.16	16d	1	0.12mi
2660 Chesapeake Blvd Norfolk, VA	3.0	2.0	1375	$2,100	$1.53	18d	1	0.36mi
2920 Cape Henry Ave Unit A Norfolk, VA	3.0	1.5	2331	$1,900	$0.82	3d	1	0.42mi
3126 Marne Ave Norfolk, VA	5.0	2.0	1943	$3,000	$1.54	45d	1	0.56mi
2914 Peronne Ave Norfolk, VA	4.0	2.0	1764	$2,495	$1.41	24d	1	0.58mi
2605 Bapaume Ave Norfolk, VA	3.0	2.0	2004	$2,295	$1.15	45d	1	0.60mi
2729 Somme Ave Norfolk, VA	3.0	2.5	1524	$2,295	$1.51	16d	1	0.74mi
3640 Robin Hood Rd Norfolk, VA	4.0	2.5	1400	$2,999	$2.14	18d	1	0.83mi
1403 Lead St Norfolk, VA	4.0	2.5	1854	$2,550	$1.38	45d	1	0.84mi
2529 Tidewater Dr Norfolk, VA	3.0	2.5	2025	$2,370	$1.17	24d	1	0.87mi
1801 Saint Denis Ave Unit 3 Norfolk, VA	4.0	2.0	1500	$2,400	$1.60	24d	1	0.90mi
2201 Pershing Ave Norfolk, VA	3.0	2.5	1455	$2,250	$1.55	5d	1	0.90mi
3653 Nottaway St Norfolk, VA	3.0	1.5	1564	$2,200	$1.41	18d	1	0.91mi
3301 Vimy Ridge Ave Norfolk, VA	4.0	2.0	1300	$2,150	$1.65	5d	1	0.97mi
1714 Bellevue Ave Norfolk, VA	3.0	1.5	1500	$1,799	$1.20	45d	1	0.97mi
1531 Spruce St Unit B Norfolk, VA	3.0	2.0	1304	$1,600	$1.23	24d	1	0.98mi
1531 Spruce St Unit B Norfolk, VA	3.0	2.0	1304	$1,600	$1.23	45d	1	0.98mi
3477 E Bonner Dr Norfolk, VA	3.0	1.0	1304	$2,000	$1.53	24d	1	1.02mi
3504 Chesapeake Blvd Norfolk, VA	3.0	2.0	1624	$1,995	$1.23	24d	1	1.03mi
3504 Chesapeake Blvd Norfolk, VA	3.0	2.0	1624	$1,995	$1.23	45d	1	1.03mi
1022 Kenton Ave Norfolk, VA	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,400	$1.71	11d	1	1.04mi
3521 Brest Ave Norfolk, VA	3.0	2.0	1234	$2,300	$1.86	45d	1	1.05mi
1751 Fontainebleau Cres Norfolk, VA	3.0	2.0	1231	$2,350	$1.91	45d	1	1.08mi
2700 Myrtle Ave Norfolk, VA	3.0	3.0	1888	$2,600	$1.38	45d	1	1.09mi
3541 Chesapeake Blvd Norfolk, VA	5.0	1.0	1476	$1,275	$0.86	8d	1	1.13mi
3414 Tidewater Dr Norfolk, VA	4.0	2.5	2200	$3,000	$1.36	45d	1	1.16mi
907 Rugby St Norfolk, VA	3.0	2.0	1515	$2,200	$1.45	45d	1	1.17mi
4563 Shoshone Ct Norfolk, VA	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,500	$1.56	45d	1	1.19mi
881 Rugby St Norfolk, VA	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,650	$1.66	24d	1	1.19mi
1449 Proescher St Norfolk, VA	3.0	1.5	1400	$1,550	$1.11	24d	1	1.20mi
3114 Luxembourg Ave Norfolk, VA	4.0	2.5	2300	$3,100	$1.35	18d	1	1.22mi
830 Lexington St Norfolk, VA	3.0	2.5	1804	$1,950	$1.08	45d	1	1.29mi
766 A Ave Norfolk, VA	5.0	2.0	1544	$1,400	$0.91	45d	1	1.32mi
764 B Ave Norfolk, VA	3.0	2.5	1380	$1,795	$1.30	21d	1	1.34mi
1562 Norcova Ave Norfolk, VA	3.0	1.0	1288	$2,000	$1.55	18d	1	1.38mi
3776 Wayne Cir Norfolk, VA	4.0	3.0	2301	$2,795	$1.21	45d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-04-25
   status Under Contract
2. 2026-04-25
   listed Active Under Contract
3. 2026-04-24
   listed $190,000
4. 2016-11-04
   soldstatus $189,900
5. 2016-10-06
   status Under Contract
6. 2016-08-16
   price $189,900
7. 2016-06-17
   price $199,900
8. 2016-05-25
   listed $209,000 Active
9. 2007-03-16
   soldstatus $199,900
10. 2006-07-31
    soldstatus $113,000
11. 2006-03-03
    soldstatus $80,000
12. 1986-10-08
    soldstatus $64,900
13. 1983-11-03
    soldstatus $49,000
14. 1980-11-05
    soldstatus $34,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,370 · $364/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,370 · $364/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 12% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,879
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$4,370
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,310
• − Management: −$2,310
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable income: $2,768
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$664
• After-tax cash flow: $4,873/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Norfolk City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102670
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -44.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $44,358
• Composite: 35.08/100
• National rank: #5026
• State rank: #118 of 131 in VA

Livability — Norfolk

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #43
• US rank: #1026

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Norfolk, VA
• County: Norfolk City · 214,042 people
• City population: 214,042
• Metro: Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
• Population (ZIP): 13,105
• Household income: $72,816
• Rent vs Own: 37.8% rent · 62.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 575.0

Population outlook (Norfolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 249,032 people
• By 2030: 252,347 · +1.3%
• By 2040: 253,644 · +1.9%
• By 2050: 251,913 · +1.2%
• By 2075: 245,281 · -1.5%
• By 2100: 219,548 · -11.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Black 39% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Serbian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Norfolk

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+41.5) · D 70.0% · R 28.5% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.4pp toward R · 2008: 43.0pp · 2024: 41.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+41.5 2020: D+45.6 2016: D+42.0 2012: D+44.0 2008: D+43.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -4.16%
• Current HPI: 321.56
• Rent YoY: ▲ 13.99%
• Metro: Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+458.8% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Pending — REINMLS
• 2026-04-25 Listed — REINMLS
• 2026-04-24 Listed $190,000 REINMLS
• 2016-11-04 Sold (Public Records) $189,900 Public Records
• 2016-10-06 Pending — REINMLS
• 2016-08-16 Price Changed $189,900 REINMLS
• 2016-06-17 Price Changed $199,900 REINMLS
• 2016-05-25 Listed $209,000 REINMLS
• 2007-03-16 Sold (Public Records) $199,900 Public Records
• 2006-07-31 Sold (Public Records) $113,000 Public Records
• 2006-03-03 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records
• 1986-10-08 Sold (Public Records) $64,900 Public Records
• 1983-11-03 Sold (Public Records) $49,000 Public Records
• 1980-11-05 Sold (Public Records) $34,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,370 · +5.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.