22875 W Cactus Wren Ln · Congress, AZ 85332

$279,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,608 sqft · Manufactured public records · 369 Days on market

Built 1988 0.30 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.9/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Newly painted and roofed home on a half acre lot. Four bedrooms two baths. Large back yard.

Key facts

• 0.3 acre lot
• Built 1988
• Listed 369 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association fees

Exterior

• Utilities: Private water company; Septic (in and connected)
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile home; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Wood frame construction; Painted exterior; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Partial block fencing; Dirt front and back yard

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: Space for 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Mini split heating and cooling
• Interior features: Full bathroom in the master bedroom; Dishwasher
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry area with washer/dryer hookup only

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $279k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-154 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $252k (9.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $188k (32.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $188k (32.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 4.2% in Congress — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#75 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Congress Elementary District (4479) (rural): math 60% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #91 of 501 in AZ (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Congress Elementary School (math 44% / reading 34%, grade F, #398 of 1,109 statewide, top 37%, 102 students, 74% FRL) — zoned schools average 74% FRL vs 59% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 40% at this address vs 58% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Congress Elementary District (4479) average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 110 active listings in the ZIP; 2,062 units permitted in Yavapai County in 2024 (98 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $11k appreciation (3.8% local appreciation)).
• Yavapai County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 369 days — a 12% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $187,773 (32.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 369 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.63%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.36%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 12.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.77% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.45×
• Total profit: $35,249
• Equity at exit: $137,777

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.60×
• Total profit: $125,179
• Equity at exit: $222,459

Cash invested: $78,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85332

• Home prices YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 110
• Price-to-rent: 12.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,878 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,463
• Tax from tax record: −$58 /mo · $695/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$394
• Net cashflow: $-154

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,072

Max offer price $251,825

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $4	-5% $-75	+0% $-154	+5% $-233	+10% $-312
Rent	-10% $-302	-5% $-228	+0% $-154	+5% $-80	+10% $-5
Rate	-1.0pp $-13	-0.5pp $-83	base $-154	+0.5pp $-226	+1.0pp $-300

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,750
• Closing costs: $8,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $279,000 Active 369 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $279,000 Active 366 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $279,000 Active 365 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $279,000 Active 364 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $279,000 Active 363 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $279,000 Active 361 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $279,000 Active 357 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $279,000 Active 356 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $279,000 Active 355 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $279,000 Active 352 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $279,000 Active 351 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $279,000 Active 350 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $279,000 Active 349 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $279,000 Active 348 DOM
15. 2025-12-08
    price $279,000
16. 2025-06-17
    listed $285,000 Active
17. 2022-11-09
    soldstatus $250,000 Closed 93-char remark

    Show marketing remark (93 chars)

    Newly painted and roofed home on a half acre lot. Four bedrooms two baths. Large back yard.

18. 2022-11-09
    soldstatus $250,000

    Show marketing remark (93 chars)

    Newly painted and roofed home on a half acre lot. Four bedrooms two baths. Large back yard.

19. 2022-10-14
    status Pending 93-char remark

    Show marketing remark (93 chars)

    Newly painted and roofed home on a half acre lot. Four bedrooms two baths. Large back yard.

20. 2022-09-27
    listed $250,000 Active 93-char remark

    Show marketing remark (93 chars)

    Newly painted and roofed home on a half acre lot. Four bedrooms two baths. Large back yard.

21. 2011-11-23
    soldstatus $32,500 303-char remark

    Show marketing remark (303 chars)

    Spacious double wide needs a handy man. It is large & open floor plan home with abundant good cabinets and counters in the kitchen. Needs some plumbing & electrical work as well as dry wall. If you can do that you'll have a wonderful home and a half acre to enjoy. Bargain price see it today!

22. 2011-09-29
    listed $34,900 303-char remark

    Show marketing remark (303 chars)

    Spacious double wide needs a handy man. It is large & open floor plan home with abundant good cabinets and counters in the kitchen. Needs some plumbing & electrical work as well as dry wall. If you can do that you'll have a wonderful home and a half acre to enjoy. Bargain price see it today!

23. 2006-03-21
    soldstatus $115,000
24. 2006-03-21
    soldstatus $115,000
25. 2000-08-22
    soldstatus $73,000
26. 1998-05-14
    soldstatus $37,500
27. 1996-05-10
    soldstatus $20,000
28. 1996-02-01
    soldstatus $29,000
29. 1991-12-26
    soldstatus $26,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $695 · $58/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,841 · $153/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,147/yr (+$96/mo · 165.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,533
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,628
• − Property taxes: −$695
• − Insurance: −$1,395
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,803
• − Management: −$1,803
• − Depreciation: −$8,116
• Taxable loss: −$6,907
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,658
• After-tax cash flow: $-188/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Congress Elementary District (4479)
• NCES district ID: 0402220
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $40,613
• Composite: 49.83/100
• National rank: #4193
• State rank: #91 of 501 in AZ

Livability — Congress

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #75
• US rank: #11962

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Congress, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 1,777

Population outlook (Yavapai County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 241,389 people
• By 2030: 249,523 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 259,966 · +7.7%
• By 2050: 264,736 · +9.7%
• By 2075: 269,334 · +11.6%
• By 2100: 256,505 · +6.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Scottish 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · German/W. Germanic 2% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Yavapai

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.9) · D 32.6% · R 66.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.5pp toward R · 2008: -24.4pp · 2024: -33.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.9 2020: R+29.3 2016: R+31.4 2012: R+30.7 2008: R+24.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.77%
• Current HPI: 513.0899
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+973.1% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-08 Price Changed $279,000 ARMLS
• 2025-06-17 Listed $285,000 ARMLS
• 2022-11-09 Sold (Public Records) $250,000 Public Records
• 2022-11-09 Sold (MLS) $250,000 ARMLS
• 2022-10-14 Pending — ARMLS
• 2022-09-27 Listed $250,000 ARMLS
• 2011-11-23 Sold (MLS) $32,500 ARMLS
• 2011-09-29 Listed $34,900 ARMLS
• 2006-03-21 Sold (Public Records) $115,000 Public Records
• 2006-03-21 Sold (Public Records) $115,000 Public Records
• 2000-08-22 Sold (Public Records) $73,000 Public Records
• 1998-05-14 Sold (Public Records) $37,500 Public Records
• 1996-05-10 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records
• 1996-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $29,000 Public Records
• 1991-12-26 Sold (Public Records) $26,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $695 · +27.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.