2430 Jefferson Hwy · Louisa, VA 23093

$201,300

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,056 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 81 Days on market

Built 1953 2.91 ac lot Est $161k · 25% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.9/30.0
• Schools +6.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Calling cash buyers who can think out of the box to purchase these 3 acres, just a quick 3-mile drive from the Town of Louisa. This cozy home features 3 bedrooms and 1 full bathroom. The layout includes an eat-in kitchen, laundry and a den. The exterior is a true asset, boasting a securely fenced front yard for children or pets, plus the convenience of multiple outbuildings providing ample storage or workshop potential. With its ideal location offering country serenity and close proximity to town amenities, this property is poised to be an excellent investment and place to call home.

Key facts

• Eat-in kitchen
• Fenced front yard
• Den

Tags

• 3 ACRES
• FENCED FRONT YARD
• MULTIPLE OUTBUILDINGS
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• LAUNDRY
• DEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $201k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $132 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $175k (13.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $175k (13.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 2.8% in Louisa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#199 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, cost of living A, crime A-; Watch: housing D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Louisa County Public School District (rural): math 64% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #19 of 131 in VA (top 14%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Thomas Jefferson Elementary (math 59% / reading 72%, grade B+, #410 of 1,108 statewide, top 37%, 632 students, 84% FRL); Louisa County Middle (math 59% / reading 76%, grade A-, #98 of 342 statewide, top 30%, 1,152 students, 64% FRL); Louisa County High (math 86% / reading 92%, grade A+, #10 of 319 statewide, top 3%, 1,653 students, 63% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 38% district-wide (32 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 184 active listings in the ZIP; 408 units permitted in Louisa County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Louisa County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 81 days — a 6% lower offer ($189k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,142 (13.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 81 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.81%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $160,512
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2430 Jefferson Hwy	0.00mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,056 (0%)	1mo	$160,000	$152	92

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-24,277
• Equity at exit: $30,014

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-10,563
• Equity at exit: $17,405

Cash invested: $56,364 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23093

• Home prices YoY: -15.0%
• Active inventory: 184
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,751 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,056
• Tax from tax record: −$112 /mo · $1,346/yr
• Insurance: −$84
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$368
• Net cashflow: $132

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,584

Max offer price $201,300

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,325
• Closing costs: $6,039
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-04-28
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-06
   listed $201,300 Active
3. 2026-01-31
   historical
4. 2026-01-13
   status Active
5. 2026-01-07
   status Pending
6. 2025-12-31
   listed $204,750 Active
7. 2008-01-10
   listed $129,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,346 · $112/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,651 · $138/mo
• Expected delta: +$304/yr (+$25/mo · 22.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,017
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,276
• − Property taxes: −$1,346
• − Insurance: −$1,006
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,681
• − Management: −$1,681
• − Depreciation: −$5,856
• Taxable loss: −$1,831
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$439
• After-tax cash flow: $2,022/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Louisa County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102280
• Math proficiency: 64% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 77% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $55,036
• Composite: 60.21/100
• National rank: #862
• State rank: #19 of 131 in VA

Livability — Louisa

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #199
• US rank: #6156

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment F Housing D+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 14,243

Population outlook (Louisa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 36,941 people
• By 2030: 37,752 · +2.2%
• By 2040: 38,605 · +4.5%
• By 2050: 38,480 · +4.2%
• By 2075: 38,011 · +2.9%
• By 2100: 34,748 · -5.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Black 17% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Other Indo-European 3% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Louisa

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+26.2) · D 36.5% · R 62.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.4pp toward R · 2008: -7.8pp · 2024: -26.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+26.2 2020: R+22.9 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+13.8 2008: R+7.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -38.32%
• Current HPI: 217.8884
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+55.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-06 Listed $201,300 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-31 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-13 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-07 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-12-31 Listed $204,750 BRIGHT MLS
• 2008-01-10 Listed $129,900 CAAR

Property tax history

+7.7%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,346 · +15.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.