Sentosa Plan · Howe, TX 75459

$247,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,630 sqft · SingleFamily · 295 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.7/30.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This new home offers simple living with a convenient single-level layout. An open-concept floorplan combines the kitchen, living and dining areas for simple entertaining and multitasking. Three secondary bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home, and the owner's suite is nestled into a private rear corner, offering access to a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Single-level layout
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• SINGLE-LEVEL LAYOUT
• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOORPLAN
• SPA-INSPIRED BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

🏗️ New construction. The $247,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $299,000.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $248k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-607 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $211k (14.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $185k (25.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $185k (25.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#368 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Howe ISD (rural): math 47% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #180 of 826 in TX (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Summit Hill El (358 students, 69% FRL); Howe Middle (math 40% / reading 45%, grade D-, #553 of 1,662 statewide, top 34%, 292 students, 49% FRL); Howe H S (math 52% / reading 62%, grade C, #333 of 1,632 statewide, top 22%, 352 students, 41% FRL).
• Market conditions: 143 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,272 units permitted in Grayson County in 2024 (750 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Grayson County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 295 days — a 12% lower offer ($218k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $184,724 (25.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 295 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.62% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.70%
• DSCR: 0.61
• GRM: 13.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $299,000
• List price: $247,999
• Delta: -17.06%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1808 Douglas St	0.18mi	4/2.0	1,666 (+2%)	1mo	$249,000	$149	87
1625 Elliot Rd	0.21mi	4/2.0	1,656 (+2%)	2mo	$225,399	$136	86
1317 Elliott Rd	0.18mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,589 (-2%)	1mo	$268,490	$169	82
904 Cole St	0.15mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,461 (-10%)	1mo	$232,999	$159	70
916 Cole St	0.15mi	4/2.0	1,867 (+14%)	1mo	$267,999	$144	68
900 Cole St	0.15mi	4/2.0	1,867 (+14%)	2mo	$272,999	$146	68
1640 Elliott Rd	0.21mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,451 (-11%)	1mo	$216,199	$149	66
1616 Elliott Rd	0.21mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,461 (-10%)	2mo	$223,999	$153	66
1629 Elliott Rd	0.21mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,451 (-11%)	2mo	$219,999	$152	65
1325 Elliott Rd	0.18mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,429 (-12%)	1mo	$258,990	$181	65
905 Cole St	0.22mi	4/2.0	1,867 (+14%)	1mo	$260,549	$140	65
808 N Hughes St	0.68mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,444 (-11%)	2mo	$180,000	$125	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.04×
• Total profit: $-87,083
• Equity at exit: $44,582

10-year hold

• IRR: -35.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.50×
• Total profit: $-125,499
• Equity at exit: $25,852

Cash invested: $83,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75459

• Home prices YoY: -18.5%
• Active inventory: 143
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,847 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$374 /mo · $4,485/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$388
• Net cashflow: $-607

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,616

Max offer price $211,166

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-400	-5% $-504	+0% $-607	+5% $-710	+10% $-814
Rent	-10% $-753	-5% $-680	+0% $-607	+5% $-534	+10% $-461
Rate	-1.0pp $-456	-0.5pp $-531	base $-607	+0.5pp $-684	+1.0pp $-763

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,750
• Closing costs: $8,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1317 Kennedy Rd Howe, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,795	$1.12	45d	1	0.11mi
1301 Elliott Rd Howe, TX	3.0	2.0	1589	$1,850	$1.16	22d	1	0.18mi
1632 Elliott Rd Howe, TX	3.0	2.0	1461	$1,800	$1.23	22d	1	0.18mi
1629 Elliott Rd Howe, TX	3.0	2.0	1451	$1,800	$1.24	45d	1	0.18mi
1625 Elliott Rd Howe, TX	4.0	2.0	1656	$1,950	$1.18	45d	1	0.18mi
1636 Elliott Rd Howe, TX	4.0	2.0	1656	$1,950	$1.18	45d	1	0.18mi
1520 Elliott Rd Howe, TX	4.0	2.0	1810	$2,100	$1.16	45d	1	0.19mi
1810 Clegg St Howe, TX	4.0	2.0	1658	$1,595	$0.96	22d	1	0.22mi
406 N Denny St Unit B Howe, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,599	$1.00	45d	1	0.92mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $247,999 Active 295 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $247,999 Active 293 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $247,999 Active 292 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $247,999 Active 291 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $247,999 Active 290 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $247,999 Active 289 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $247,999 Active 287 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $247,999 Active 286 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $247,999 Active 284 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $247,999 Active 283 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $247,999 Active 282 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $247,999 Active 281 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $247,999 Active 278 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $247,999 Active 276 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $247,999 Active 275 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $247,999 Active 274 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $247,999 Active 273 DOM
18. 2025-08-30
    listed $247,999 Active 377-char remark

    Show marketing remark (377 chars)

    This new home offers simple living with a convenient single-level layout. An open-concept floorplan combines the kitchen, living and dining areas for simple entertaining and multitasking. Three secondary bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home, and the owner's suite is nestled into a private rear corner, offering access to a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,167
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,749
• − Property taxes: −$4,485
• − Insurance: −$1,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,773
• − Management: −$1,773
• − Depreciation: −$8,698
• Taxable loss: −$12,807
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,074
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,210/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Howe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823670
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $60,164
• Composite: 42.92/100
• National rank: #3119
• State rank: #180 of 826 in TX

Livability — Howe

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #368
• US rank: #7804

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Howe, TX
• Population (ZIP): 6,620

Population outlook (Grayson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 134,540 people
• By 2030: 138,653 · +3.1%
• By 2040: 145,958 · +8.5%
• By 2050: 151,218 · +12.4%
• By 2075: 161,802 · +20.3%
• By 2100: 159,036 · +18.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 9% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Lithuanian 3% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 17%

Political lean MEDSL · Grayson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+54.3) · D 22.5% · R 76.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.4pp toward R · 2008: -37.9pp · 2024: -54.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+54.3 2020: R+49.9 2016: R+53.1 2012: R+48.0 2008: R+37.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.75%
• Current HPI: 249.7211
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-08-30 Listed $247,999 Zillow